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Publications

To promote transparency and provide information, the Federal Planning Bureau regularly publishes the methods and results of its works. The publications are organised in different series, such as Outlooks, Working Papers and Planning Papers. Some reports can be consulted here, along with the Short Term Update newsletters that were published until 2015. You can search our publications by theme, publication type, author and year.

Documents (1104)

2005

  • STU 02-05 : Special Topic - Market reform in network industries in Belgium 17/05/2005

    The medium-term outlook for Belgium (cut-off date: April 30) points towards an average GDP growth rate of 2.2% during the 2005-2010 period, which is slightly higher than potential (2.1%). This pace of growth is expected to take place after a slowdown in economic growth in 2005 (1.7%) and a rebound in 2006 (2.6%). In both years Belgian economic growth should be slightly higher than in the euro area. Recent information makes the 2005 growth figure highly uncertain, with a significant downward risk.

    Despite moderate wage increases, the average yearly growth rate of private consumption should reach 1.9% during the 2005-2010 period, particularly thanks to the increase in households’ disposable income (stimulated particularly by reductions in personal income tax and the rise in employment). Investment growth should reach 3% on average during the 2005-2010 period, mainly reflecting the increase in business investment but also an acceleration of public investment in 2005 and 2006. Growth in exports should be 5.5% on average and the contribution of net exports to GDP growth is expected to be 0.2%. Limited wage cost increases, lower oil prices as compared to the average level in 2005 and a negative output gap should allow inflation to remain around 1.8% in the medium term.

    The development of employment should reflect the favourable macroeconomic context, the limited increases in wage costs and various policy measures. After the net creation of approximately 29,000 and 21,000 jobs in 2004 and 2005 respectively, about 40,000 jobs should be created every year during the 2006-2010 period. Between 2004 and 2010 industrial employment should fall by 51,000 persons and the number of jobs created in market services should exceed 270,000. Nevertheless, in view of the growth in the labour force (mainly in the 50-64 age group) the fall in unemployment will be limited to 50,000. The unemployment rate (broad administrative statistics) is still increasing in 2005 (from 14.4% to 14.6%), but it will subsequently fall to 12.9% in 2010.

    Under the assumption of unchanged policy, the public accounts are expected to show a clear deterioration, with a net public sector borrowing requirement appearing in 2005 (0.5% of GDP) and widening to 1.5% of GDP in 2006 before gradually declining to 0.7% of GDP by the end of the projection period. Nevertheless, the total public debt to GDP ratio is still in decline, from 95.8% in 2004 to 82.6% in 2010.

    Closed series - Short Term Update 02-05  Publication(en),

  • The Macroeconomic Effects of an Oil Price Shock on the World Economy : A Simulation with the NIME Model 08/04/2005

    In this Working Paper, we use the nime model to assess the macroeconomic effects of an oil price shock on the world economy. We start with an overview of the nime model, and a presentation of our modelling of oil price shocks. Next, we examine the effect of a permanent 25 per cent increase in the price of oil, under the assumption that the shock is caused by an increase in the mark-up of the oil price.

    Working Papers - Working Paper 06-05  Publication(en),

  • STU 01-05 : Special Topic - Why is Belgian productivity growth declining? 25/03/2005

    In 2004, economic growth in Belgium amounted to 2.7% (GDP at constant prices), which is higher than the euro area average due to the strength of Belgian domestic demand. The economic recovery, triggered by an improvement in the international business climate from mid-2003 onwards, resulted in quarter-on-quarter growth rates between 0.7% and 0.8%, but weakened to 0.4% in the last quarter of 2004.

    Economic growth should gain momentum during the course of this year, which is mainly due to the quarterly profile of exports. In fact, export growth should temporarily weaken during the first half of this year due to lower foreign demand growth and the appreciation of the euro during the last two quarters of 2004, which hampers competitiveness with respect to the other currency areas. Private con-sumption (+1.8%) should increase at a faster pace than purchasing power (+1.4%) for the third con-secutive year. Stimulated by the ongoing recovery of business profitability, low interest rates and gradually improving demand prospects, real business investment growth should strengthen to 3.3% this year. All in all, GDP growth at constant prices should reach 2.2% in 2005. Inflation should re-main rather stable at 2.0%.

    Employment should increase by 34,400 units this year, as compared to 28,600 in 2004. As the labour force should increase at about the same pace in 2005, the unemployment rate should stabilise this year. The employment rate should rise slightly from 61.8% in 2004 to 62.1% in 2005.

    Closed series - Short Term Update 01-05  Publication(en),

  • European R&D Strategy: impact and feasibility study for Belgium 14/03/2005

    Following the Lisbon strategy designed to transform the European economy into the most competitive and dynamic knowledge-based society, the Barcelona Summit quantified one of the available instruments to reach this ambitious objective by fixing the amount of resources which have to be devoted to r&d by 2010, at 3% of the European gdp.


    What could be the implications of the Barcelona objective in terms of the main economic variables for Belgium and the eu? What are the needs for human capital to reach this objective? How are these needs covered by the current trends in the supply of qualified labour in Belgium? These are the main questions analysed in the present working paper.

    Working Papers - Working Paper 03-05  Publication(en),

  • The NIME Economic Outlook for the World Economy 2005-2011 07/03/2005

    This Working Paper presents the 2005-2011 macroeconomic outlook for the major areas of the world. The outlook was produced using NIME, the Belgian Federal Planning Bureau’s (FPB) macroeconometric world model and builds on the Autumn 2004 short-term Economic Forecasts made by the European Commission for the year 2004. The Working Paper also features an assessment of the progress made towards the Lisbon goals for growth and employment in the euro area. The major technical assumptions of this outlook as well as a description of the NIME model are presented in an appendix to the Working Paper.


    Articles - Article 2005030703  

  • Sustainable development policy at the federal level in Belgium 07/03/2005

    In July 2003 the Belgian federal government’s Policy Declaration expressed its intention to assess its sustainable development policy. This Working Paper aims to facilitating this, by delivering a timely evaluation of both the implementation of the first two Federal Plans for Sustainable Development and the Federal strategic policy process in which these plans are elaborated, implemented and monitored. The last part of the Paper describes the strategies for sustainable development at other Belgian and international policy levels, including partnerships for sustainable development. The Belgian Federal Strategy for Sustainable Development is a learning process. The federal authorities have taken important steps to put sustainable development into practice. This paper shows that improvements are necessary and points out where they are possible.

    Articles - Article 2005030702  

  • Sustainable development: production patterns and the human capital 07/03/2005

    This Working Paper describes, with a sustainable development approach, the relationships between the production patterns' evolution and the state of the human capital in Belgium with an international perspective. Human capital is defined here as occupational and environmental health, as well as knowledge and capacities. The Driving forces-Pressure-State-Impact-Response framework is used to understand and analyse these relationships. The Paper also presents the political initiatives developed to promote more sustainable production patterns and to strengthen the human capital.

    Articles - Article 2005030701  

  • The NIME Economic Outlook for the World Economy 2005 - 2011 (Also in this issue: the Lisbon Strategy) 21/02/2005

    This Working Paper presents a medium-term macroeconomic outlook for the major economic areas of the world. The outlook was prepared using nime, the Belgian Federal Planning Bureau’s (fpb) macroeconometric world model. The Working Paper also features an assessment of the euro area’s progress towards the European Union’s Lisbon goals for growth and employment, a brief description of the nime model and an appendix outlining the major technical assumptions of this outlook.

    Working Papers - Working Paper 02-05  Publication(en),

2004

  • STU 04-04 : Special Topic - Geographic market specialisation and export performance 17/12/2004

    The latest update of the FPB’s medium-term outlook for Belgium shows average GDP growth reaching 2.3% during the 2004-2009 period. This development can be largely accounted for by domestic demand, whereas the role of (net) exports is expected to be more limited. As in 2003, private consumption should evolve in quite a dynamic way during the projection period (1.9% on average), mainly as a result of an expansion of households’ disposable income. At the same time, gross fixed capital formation (and particularly business investment) should recover, with annual growth reaching 3%. The structural loss of export market share should be confirmed with exports increasing by 5.3% a year on average, compared with growth of 6.3% of our potential export markets.

    Inflation should remain slightly below 2% in the medium term, mainly thanks to limited wage increases and moderate rises in imported costs. Employment is expected to increase by about 32,000 jobs a year during the 2005-2009 period. This performance can be explained by several factors: a relatively favourable macroeconomic context, limited wage increases, a reduction in working time and various measures taken to promote employment. At the same time, the working population should rise considerably. As a consequence, despite the creation of many jobs, the fall in the unemployment rate should be very limited.

    The FPB’s October update of the medium term outlook for Belgium does not yet take into account the measures decided within the framework of the 2005 budget.

    Closed series - Short Term Update 04-04  Publication(en),

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