The inflation forecasts from November 2024 until the end of 2025 produced by the Federal Planning Bureau are based on observations until October 2024 from Statbel. These forecasts take into account the futures quotes of 30 October 2024. The oil price should amount to 80 dollars per barrel in 2024 and 71 dollars per barrel in 2025. The exchange rate of the euro should be 1.09 dollar per euro in 2024 and 1.10 dollar per euro in 2025.

On the basis of these inflation forecasts, average consumer price inflation should be 3.1% in 2024 and 1.8% in 2025, compared to 4.06% in 2023 and 9.59% in 2022. The average growth rate of the so-called 'health price index', which is used for the price indexation of wages, social benefits and house-rent, should be 3.3% in 2024 and 2.0% in 2025, compared to 4.33% in 2023 and 9.25% in 2022.

In April 2024, the pivotal index for social benefits and public sector wages was last exceeded. According to our monthly forecasts for the 'health price index', the following pivotal index (130.67) should be reached in January 2025. As a result, social benefits should be adjusted (by 2%) to the higher cost of living in February 2025 and public sector wages should follow suit in March 2025.

Next update: 3 December 2024 at 2 p.m.

National consumer price index

To convert an index with base year 2013 to base year 2004, the starting value has to be multiplied by 1.2240.
To convert an index with base year 2004 to base year 2013, the starting value has to be multiplied by 0.8170.

Health index

To convert an index with base year 2013 to base year 2004, the starting value has to be multiplied by 1.2077.
To convert an index with base year 2004 to base year 2013, the starting value has to be multiplied by 0.8280.

(1) Change (%) compared to same month of previous year. Orange labels are forecasting estimations by the Federal Planning Bureau.

(1) Change (%) compared to same month of previous year. Orange labels are forecasting estimations by the Federal Planning Bureau.
(2) The smoothed health index is calculated as the four-month moving average of the health index multiplied by 0.98.

(1) Change (%) compared to same month of previous year. Orange labels are forecasting estimations by the Federal Planning Bureau.

(1) Change (%) compared to same month of previous year. Orange labels are forecasting estimations by the Federal Planning Bureau.
(2) The smoothed health index is calculated as the four-month moving average of the health index multiplied by 0.98.

(1) Change (%) compared to same month of previous year.

(1) Change (%) compared to same month of previous year.
(2) The smoothed health index is calculated as the four-month moving average of the health index multiplied by 0.98.

(1) Change (%) compared to same month of previous year.

(1) Change (%) compared to same month of previous year.
(2) The smoothed health index is calculated as the four-month moving average of the health index multiplied by 0.98.