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Publications

Dans un souci de transparence et d’information, le BFP publie régulièrement les méthodes et résultats de ses travaux. Les publications sont organisées en séries, entre autres, les perspectives, les working papers et planning papers. Certains rapports peuvent également être consultés ici, de même que les bulletins du Short Term Update publiés jusqu’en 2015. Une recherche par thématique, type de publication, auteur et année vous est proposée.

Documents (190)

1998

  • STU 04-98 : Special Topic - The accuracy of the FPB short-term economic forecasts since 1994 24/11/1998

    The FPB is reassessing the state of the economy in 1998 and its possible evolution for 1999.

    In 1998 the Belgian economy has continued to grow strongly and has moved into a “mature” phase of recovery with exports and investment no longer providing the engine for growth. Private consumption, fed mainly by employment growth, moderate real wage increases and high consumer confidence, took over their role. Employment growth remains impressive.

    The outlook for the world economy for 1999 has deteriorated: the Asian crisis has widened and deepened and contagion effects have started to affect also Russia, Latin American countries and, to a lesser extent, Eastern Europe. World financial markets have shown extreme volatility. Continental European countries will be affected by the deterioration of the global economic performance and the weakening of the USD, but should nevertheless become the fastest growing area in the world.

    Any forecast concerning Belgium is fragile in this context but it seems likely that the GDP-growth forecast for 1999 given in July (2.6%) is too optimistic. The Belgian economy might not be growing faster than 2.2% with significant downward risks on the domestic and international side.

    Many uncertainties and downward risks regarding the international environment are linked, and, given the interdependencies in the global economy could trigger all the others and lead to a sharp deterioration in the overall economic situation.

    Export growth should be significantly lower than in 1998 while private consumption should be less affected. Employment should still increase by 0.8% and the unemployment rate should further fall from 8.6% to 8.3% (Eurostat standardised definition).

    In any case, consumption price inflation remains subdued at about 0.9% (1% for the “health” index). Wage increases will remain moderate, under the influence of the “wage norm”. Interest rates in Belgium drop in line with international rates. This should be a positive factor for domestic demand.

    Séries clôturées - Short Term Update 04-98  Publication(en),

  • STU 03-98 : Special Topic - Declining replacement rates in the legal pension scheme for wage-earners 16/07/1998

    Belgian GDP grew by 2.9% in 1997. GDP growth should hardly be reduced this and next year: the FPB expects a growth rate of 2.8% in 1998 and 2.6% in 1999.

    So far, the FPB expected the negative impact of the Asian crisis to be neutralised by a more dynamic domestic demand. While exports do actually slow down, it seems that domestic demand more than compensates for this.

    The good figures for domestic demand in 1998 concern mainly private consumption. They are influenced by the concentrated purchases of cars after the biannual Motor Show but also by a number of other special factors positively affecting household disposable income. These will not be present in 1999 so that smaller growth rates for real disposable income as well as private consumption are expected.

    Employment creation should contribute substantially to the income growth of households during 1998 and 1999. For both years, employment should increase by about 45,000 people (or about 1.2%), which is considerable compared to the past seven years.

    About a quarter of the job creation can be attributed to special programmes, which are mainly taking place in enterprises. Moreover, wage moderation, as well as further cuts in employers’ contributions to social security contribute to a more labour-intensive growth and an improvement of competitiveness.

    The business investment rate should continue to climb, but remains relatively low compared to the end of the 80's.

    The wage evolution in 1999 remains dependent on the “Wage norm”. Wage moderation in the neighbouring countries constraints the wage evolution in Belgium. Gross hourly wages in the private sector are expected to increase by 1.2% in real terms in 1999. The risk of wage inflation is therefore limited, even though labour market shortages could emerge.

    Somewhat stronger import price increases and a slightly positive output gap lead to a small rise in the inflation rates in 1999 (1.3%, compared to 1.1% in 1998). Interest rates should also slightly increase in the Euro zone as well as in Belgium.

    Séries clôturées - Short Term Update 03-98  Publication(en),

  • STU 02-98 : Special Topic - Explaining consumer price inflation 28/05/1998

    Growth in Belgium in 1997 turned out significantly better than expected, but some weakening has occurred during the last quarter. The underlying trend in GDP growth should, however, confirm the 2.5% growth forecast for 1998.

    The weakening in growth activity at the end of last year is to a large extent due to a significantly lower rate of growth for exports. As has been mentioned in other FPB-publications, the Asia crisis is having a dampening effect on the world and also the Belgian economy. The impact of the Asia crisis will mainly be felt in trade. Export growth will, therefore, continue to be negatively affected by slower growth in world trade. Price competitiveness has, on the other hand, improved considerably during the last two years. All in all, net exports should continue to make a positive contribution to GDP growth, but this contribution will be smaller than in 1997. As the effect of the Asia crisis is expected to be limited to 1998, some increase in growth is again expected in 1999 with GDP growth of 2.8%.

    Domestic demand and particularly private consumption have continued to show a marked improvement. The consumer confidence index, strengthened by the creation of considerable employment opportunities, somewhat higher wage increases and good news concerning public finance, points to sustained consumer growth during the first quarters of 1998.

    The medium-term outlook for Belgium points to an average growth rate of 2.6% over the next five years. But even with this rate of growth and moderate wage increases in accordance with the 1996 Framework Law, unemployment is likely to remain above the 1990 level. The growth in employment is estimated at around 0.75% per year and the supply of labour would increase by 0.2% per year.

    The general government borrowing requirement should continue to show a gradual decrease and become a surplus from 2002 onwards in an “unchanged policy” scenario. The primary surplus should remain close to 6% from 1997 to 2000 and should increase again from then on. The debt ratio and interest burden are clearly decreasing.

    Consumer price inflation should remain at 1.1% this year and show only a slight increase next year. If there are no external shocks and if wages continue to be constrained by the Competitiveness Law, there are few reasons why price stability should be threatened in future. Nominal interest rates should remain low.

    Séries clôturées - Short Term Update 02-98  Publication(en),

  • STU 01-98 : Special Topic - Changes in the Wage Wedge over the Past 15 Years 08/03/1998

    As compared with the November forecast, the FPB now expects GDP to grow by 2.7% in 1997 (instead of 2.4%) and by 2.5% in 1998 (instead of 2.7%).

    The Belgian economic situation has been affected by the world economy in two entirely different ways. On the one hand the Asia crisis has had a dampening effect on exports and on the outlook for business profitability. It is estimated that its impact will be 0.4% of GDP in 1998. On the other hand, the European economy in general, and the Belgian economy in particular, has recently shown signs of an upturn in domestic demand.

    Activity growth turned out better than expected in 1997. The appreciation of the US dollar and UK pound meant that foreign trade contributed strongly to economic growth. Private consumption was higher than forecast. The NBB survey indicators for foreign order books would seem to show that exports may experience a lower rate of growth in the quarters to come, partly because of declining growth in world trade as a result of the Asian crisis.

    It is increasingly likely that the growth in GDP for 1998 will be more balanced. The contribution of exports should diminish while domestic demand should gain in strength. This trend was already apparent in the second half of last year.

    Consumer price inflation was 1.6% in 1997. This year, even a lower inflation rate seems likely. The underlying inflation rate has hovered around 1.25% in 1997, although import price inflation was about 4.5%. For 1998 CPI inflation is estimated at 1.2%, and the “health-index” should increase by 1.3%.

    The impact of activity on employment in 1997 is still difficult to assess. The FPB estimates the increase in domestic employment at 0.6%. The impact on unemployment figures has been slight, due to higher participation rates. Employment should rise in 1998 by some 33,000 (or 0.9%), leading to a small fall in the unemployment rate. A proportion of the growth in employment can be attributed to specific employment programmes.

    The better than expected economic performance should result in a lower general government deficit of around 2% of GDP in 1997. Due to lower interest rates and a declining debt ratio, there should be a further reduction in interest payments in 1998.

    Séries clôturées - Short Term Update 01-98  Publication(en),

1997

  • STU 02-97 : Special Topic - Labor costs in industry and market services 05/11/1997

    An improvement in the most recent economic indicators and a better outlook for the European economy have prompted the FPB to revise its growth forecasts. GDP is now expected to grow by 2.4% in 1997 and 2.7% in 1998, compared to the previous forecasts of 2.1% and 2.5% respectively.

    Higher growth rates are forecast for domestic as well as external demand. The revision, however, is mainly based on external factors. Exporters are benefiting with a certain time lag from a stronger USD and UKP. The combined expected depreciation of the BEF over 1997-98 is now 4.5%. As it concerns essentially a depreciation of the currencies of the whole DEM-zone, not only Belgian exporters benefit from this, but the impact on the economies of the other continental European countries is also positive. This, in turn, improves market opportunities for Belgian exporters.

    The recent import price increases are linked to the exchange rate evolution. Consumer price inflation, however, remains subdued and is expected to amount to 1.65% in 1997 and 1.7% in 1998. The recent and expected rises in short term interest rates on the European continent should not have a significant effect on economic activity.

    There are a few small signs of an improving labour market. In 1998, employment should increase by 44,000, taking into account specific programmes targeting unemployed people. This should therefore lead to increased private consumption and higher tax receipts.

    The macroeconomic impact of the 1998-Budget is small. The government deficit should be well below 3% of GDP in 1997 and 1998. The deficit figures of 2.5% and 2.3% for 1997 and 1998 respectively, announced by the FPB in April, should be achieved without difficulty. The expected economic growth and the measures set out in the 1998-Budget should even enable the deficit to be reduced further.

    Séries clôturées - Short Term Update 02-97  Publication(en),

  • Perspectives financières de la Sécurité sociale à l’horizon 2050 01/11/1997

    De nombreux pays européens seront prochainement soumis à un processus de vieillissement démographique, dû à un double phénomène: la diminution des taux de fécondité et l’augmentation de l’espérance de vie. La conjugaison de ces deux évolutions entraînerait à l’avenir un accroissement important du coefficient de dépendance des âgés (en Belgique, il passerait de 39 pour cent en 1995 à 67 pour cent en 2050).

    Séries clôturées - Planning Paper 83  Publication(fr), Publicatie(nl),

  • La réforme des pensions : une nouvelle génération et un nouveau contrat 01/11/1997

    De la fin de la seconde guerre mondiale à la moitié des années soixante, le nombre de naissances s’établissait à 150.000 enfants par an en moyenne. Ce chiffre s’est réduit par la suite, pour atteindre 120.000 unité seulement au cours de la dernière décennie.

    Séries clôturées - Planning Paper 82  Publication(fr), Publicatie(nl),

  • Le vieillissement démographique - De l’analyse des évolutions de population au risque de conclusions hâtives 01/11/1997

    La population, par son nombre, sa structure, son évolution, est une composante intrinsèque de nombre de problématiques de la vie économique, sociale et politique. Sa connaissance se révèle indispensable pour mener de manière éclairée des politiques souvent reliées aux divers âges de la vie. Le nombre de jeunes aura une incidence sur les besoins en gardes d’enfants, en infrastructures scolaires, en encadrement pédagogique. Les générations de jeunes adultes détermineront les entrées sur le marché du travail et l’importance de l’offre de main-d’oeuvre, mais aussi les besoins en logement, en moyens de communication. Les plus âgés quitteront le marché du travail et formeront le groupe des pensionnés. La composition de la population par âge, par sexe joue aussi bien sur les recettes de l’Etat, par ses liaisons avec le revenu, le patrimoine, la consommation, l’épargne, que sur diverses politiques de dépenses : politique familiale, d’enseignement, d’emploi, de logement, de communication, de loisirs, d’accompagnement des âgés.

    Séries clôturées - Planning Paper 81  Publication(fr), Publicatie(nl),

  • Quarante années d’évolution de la durée du travail en Belgique 01/09/1997

    Depuis 1971, dans le cadre des exercices récurrents de projection à moyen terme, le Bureau fédéral du Plan utilise un certain nombre de données relatives à l’évolution de la durée du travail en Belgique. A cette fin, des informations statistiques, dont certaines remontent à 1955, ont été méthodiquement relevées.

    Séries clôturées - Planning Paper 80  Publication(fr), Publicatie(nl),

  • Coût budgétaire d’un chômeur de 1983 à 1997 01/09/1997

    Depuis l’apparition, au cours des années ‘70, de taux de chômage élevés dans la plupart des économies développées, de nombreuses analyses se sont intéressées à l’ensemble des coûts qu’occasionne le chômage pour l’individu, pour l’Etat, pour l’économie, pour la société.

    Séries clôturées - Planning Paper 79  Publication(fr), Publicatie(nl),

1996

1995

1994

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