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To promote transparency and provide information, the Federal Planning Bureau regularly publishes the methods and results of its works. The publications are organised in different series, such as Outlooks, Working Papers and Planning Papers. Some reports can be consulted here, along with the Short Term Update newsletters that were published until 2015. You can search our publications by theme, publication type, author and year.
The national conference on public investment management yielded some important lessons about the situation in Belgium. In particular: the importance of more effort being made upstream of the political decision in preparing projects, the creation of a transversal coordination role, the introduction of multi-year budgeting and the taking into account of environmental issues.
Reports - REP_CEIPSCOI2024_03 (fr), (nl),
This activity report looks at the setting up of the SCPI, its achievements, its contribution to the public debate and the future work required after its first year of activity. This report is accompanied by an external evaluation, financed by the European Commission, which takes stock of the SCPI operation and makes recommendations for the future.
Reports - REP_CEIPSCOI2024_04 (en), (fr), (nl),
The Belgian economy is expected to grow by 1,1% in 2024 and 1,3% in 2025. 16,000 jobs are expected to be created in 2024 and 25,000 next year. The employment rate would barely increase. Inflation should still reach 3,2% this year and only fall back below 2% in 2025.
Forecasts & Outlook - Economic outlook 2025 (Sept.) (fr), (nl),
This report presents the regional Economic Outlook 2024-2029, which is consistent with the national Economic Outlook published by the Federal Planning Bureau in June 2024. It is the result of a collaboration between FPB and the Brussels Institute for Statistics and Analysis (BISA), the Walloon Institute for Evaluation (IWEPS) and Statistics Flanders.
Forecasts & Outlook - FOR_HERMREG2429_13025 (fr), (nl),
Reports - REP_CEIPSCOI2024_02 (fr), (nl),
This report presents the results of the June version of the "Economic Outlook 2024-2029". It describes the international context and the outlook for Belgian economic growth, inflation, energy consumption, greenhouse gas emissions, labour market and public finances.
Forecasts & Outlook - FOR_MIDTERM_2429_13014 (fr), (nl),
Reports - REP_CEIPSCOI2024_01 (fr), (nl),
Forecasts & Outlook - Economic outlook 2024-2029 (February) (fr), (nl),
In the context of the election programme costing exercise, the Federal Planning Bureau is anticipating proposals from political parties for the introduction of a top wealth tax. The purpose of this document is to explain the estimation method for its budgetary impulse. To do so, we use data from the Belgian National Bank's Household Financial Behaviour Survey. We develop the calculation method for estimating revenues with or without the potential behavioural responses of taxpayers. To include potential behavioural responses, we investigate two approaches, namely the bunching method and the inclusion of net wealth elasticities estimated abroad. Based on the results, we will preserve only the second method for the DC2024 costing. Furthermore, this paper reviews the literature on the macroeconomic effects of the top wealth tax - literature relevant to understand the inclusion of the tax in the HERMES and QUEST models.
Working Papers - DC2024_WP_08 (fr), (nl),
The Federal Planning Bureau's econometric model HERMES will be used to calculate the macroeconomic and budgetary impact of each political party's set of priority measures over the next legislature. This working paper summarises the characteristics of the model and describes its structure and main transmission mechanisms. It then illustrates the functioning of the model using several economic policy variants. Finally, this working paper describes the procedure for constructing the reference scenario and presents the main results of the June 2023 economic outlook. Those forecasts constitute the prefiguration of the reference scenario which will be published in February 2024, covering the period 2024-2029.
Working Papers - DC2024_WP_04 (fr), (nl),
Reports - REP_CEIPSCOI2023 (fr), (nl),
The idea of a top wealth tax has regained interest in Belgium, as opposed to the international trend in the last decades. While twelve OECD countries implemented it in 1990, only three still do since 2018. Such a tax raises questions. For the account of the Federal Planning Bureau, the ULB studied a top wealth tax to define its scope and understand the stakes at play.
Other publications - STUD_202301 (fr), (nl),
Forecasts & Outlook - Economic outlook 2024 (Sept.) (fr), (nl),
Forecasts & Outlook - FOR_HermReg_2023_12857 (fr), (nl),
This report presents the results of the June version of the "Economic Outlook 2023-2028". It describes the international context and the outlook for Belgian economic growth, inflation, energy consumption, greenhouse gas emissions, the labour market and public finances. The Outlook is based on information available on 6 June 2023.
Forecasts & Outlook - Economic outlook 2023-2028 (June) (fr), (fr), (nl), (nl),
Forecasts & Outlook - Economic outlook 2023-2028 (Feb.) (fr), (nl),
The European Commission released on 9 November 2022 a proposal to reform the framework for Member States' fiscal surveillance. The proposed new framework is based on risks to debt sustainability. For Belgium, which is highly exposed to these risks, it would imply a rapid and large-scale fiscal consolidation, and would be no less stringent than the fiscal rules previously in force and suspended since Covid-19. The proposal has not yet been adopted and still needs to be negotiated with the Member States.
Reports - REP_12769 (fr),
Articles - Article 013 (fr), (nl),
Forecasts & Outlook - FORHERMREG_2022 (fr), (nl),
Forecasts & Outlook - Economic outlook 2022-2027 (June) (fr), (fr), (mix), (mix), (mix), (nl), (nl),
Forecasts & Outlook - Economic outlook 2022-2027 (Feb.) (fr), (nl),
Forecasts & Outlook - OPHERMREG_2021 (fr), (nl),
Forecasts & Outlook - Economic outlook 2021-2026 (June.) (fr), (nl),
The debate on the affordability of pensions is mostly limited to legal pensions while thus far, the affordability of supplementary pensions has hardly received any attention. Nevertheless, an increase in these pensions also affects public finances considering the lower government revenues that result from the various tax incentives used to promote supplementary pension saving. In this report we calculate the total impact of tax incentives for second pillar pensions on Belgian public finances.
Working Papers - Working Paper 03-21 (nl),
The National Recovery and Resilience Plan details the use of the €5.925 billion allocated under the Recovery and Resilience Facility. The major part (88%) of the Belgian plan is directly intended to increase the capital stock of the Belgian economy through public investment and aid to private investment. In the short term, at the peak of the plan's stimulus effect, economic activity would be 0.2% higher than in the non-plan scenario. Although the stimulus is temporary, it has long-term effects due to the increase in the public capital stock and the support for R&D activities that improve the profitability of the capital stock of firms and encourage its accumulation. By 2040, GDP is still projected to be 0.1% above non-plan growth path. This estimate does not take into account the reform component of the plan, nor the broader recovery, investment and reform plans announced by the Regions and the federal government, nor the effect of foreign plans on the Belgian economy.
Reports - REP 12401 (en), (fr), (nl),
Federal Planning Bureau
