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To promote transparency and provide information, the Federal Planning Bureau regularly publishes the methods and results of its works. The publications are organised in different series, such as Outlooks, Working Papers and Planning Papers. Some reports can be consulted here, along with the Short Term Update newsletters that were published until 2015. You can search our publications by theme, publication type, author and year.
Forecasts & Outlook - Economic outlook 2017 (fr), (nl),
Forecasts & Outlook - Economic outlook 2016-2017 (Sept) (fr), (nl),
Recent studies reveal the importance of entrants and young firms for job creation, productivity and economic growth. Some scholars argue that the falling rate at which new firms are established, can explain, to a certain extent, the productivity slowdown witnessed in most OECD countries. Belgium appears to stand out unfavourably from other countries in its very low start-up rate. This paper reviews the empirical cross-country evidence, provides some additional analysis of the role of young firms in industry-level employment and productivity dynamics in Belgium and concludes with a discussion of the implications for economic policy.
Working Papers - Working Paper 06-16 (en),
Forecasts & Outlook - Economic outlook 2016-2017 (June)
Forecasts & Outlook - Economic outlook 2016 (fr), (nl),
Reports - OPREP201602 (fr),
In this study, we investigate the exit rates from unemployment associated with different levels of education in Belgium during two periods characterised respectively by high (2002-2007) and low economic growth (2009-2014). Our estimated exit probabilities confirm that the chances of leaving unemployment are substantially higher for young unemployed who have followed post-secondary education. Moreover, the probabilities of leaving unemployment for low- and medium-skilled school leavers considerably deteriorated between the two periods. On the one hand, the penalty associated with lower education slightly increased while, on the other hand, the advantage associated with postgraduate tertiary education reinforced itself. Finally, our results show considerable heterogeneity according to region of residence and gender.
Working Papers - Working Paper 10-15 (en),
Reports - REP_SHIFT_1501 (fr), (nl),
In accordance with the Law of 21 December 1994, the National Accounts Institute has transmitted the figures of the economic budget to the Minister for Economy. These macroeconomic forecasts are produced within the framework of the preparation of the federal budget for 2016. These forecasts do not take into account the government measures announced in July in the context of the preparation of the federal budget and the tax shift. This also holds for the VAT rate hike on electricity for domestic use from September onwards as this measure is part of a global agreement, the modalities of which were not available in time for integration into these forecasts.
Forecasts & Outlook - Economic outlook 2015-2016 (Sept)
Forecasts & Outlook - Economic outlook 2015-2016 (June)
Speeches & presentations - SP20150512_01 (mix),
Forecasts & Outlook - Economic outlook 2015-2020 (fr), (nl), (fr), (nl), (fr), (fr), (fr), (fr), (nl), (nl), (nl), (nl),
Forecasts & Outlook - Economic outlook 2015 (fr), (nl),
This article presents a traditional shift-share decomposition to identify contributions of three effects on the rise in the hourly wage cost in Belgium: changes in the industry composition of total hours worked (composition effect), changes in the structure of employment in terms of categories of workers (employment structure effect), and increases in the hourly wage cost of these individual categories (wage effect).
Working Papers - Working Paper 01-15 (fr),
This paper studies wage increases in Belgium over the period 2000-2010. It specifically aims to determine to which extent the evolution of the characteristics of the labour force (composition effects) has affected those increases. To this end, we analyse, both at the aggregate and disaggregated level, the average real wage increases in 28 industries using data from the Structure and Distribution of Earnings Survey. Together with data from the National Social Security Office, this survey offers detailed information on wages and on a large number of labour force characteristics. Our analysis is mainly based on the wage decomposition method introduced by Oaxaca (1973) and Blinder (1973).
Our results reveal substantial composition effects during the period under review, both at the aggregate level and within individual industries. Composition effects play a decisive role in the wage increases of white collar workers, but their contribution is on average negative and considerably smaller for blue collar workers. At the aggregate level, the increase in the average age of employees and in their education level and the growing number of certain better paid professional categories have contributed the most to the wage increases during that period. On the other hand, the sectoral distribution of employment, the expansion of part-time work and the higher participation rate of women in the labour market have, though to a lesser extent, brought about wage decreases.
Working Papers - Working Paper 11-14 (fr),
Forecasts & Outlook - Economic outlook 2014-2015 (fr), (nl),
The present document is the fourth biannual progress report in which the Federal Planning Bureau (FPB) gives an account of the monitoring of the economic stimulus strategy announced by the Federal government in the summer of 2012.
This progress report gives an overview of the measures to follow up and reviews the progress of their implementation (situation on June 30, 2014).
Reports - OPREP201403 (fr), (nl),
Forecasts & Outlook - Economic outlook 2014-2015 (June)
This study was commissioned by the Central Economic Council (CEC), and more particularly by the Special Advisory Commission ‘Construction’. It presents the sectoral results of a report that was produced in 2011 by the National Bank of Belgium and the Federal Planning Bureau. The federal government had asked both institutions to conduct a comprehensive study of a fiscal reform aiming at encouraging employment and supporting business competitiveness. As requested by the CEC, we comment here in detail the impact of a VAT increase without additional measures, on the one hand, and the impact of a VAT increase with transitional neutralization of the effect of that increase on the indexation. As regards the other measures examined, tables of results are annexed.
Working Papers - Working Paper 04-14 (fr),
Forecasts & Outlook - Economic outlook 2014 (fr), (nl),
The present document is the third biannual progress report in which the Federal Planning Bureau (FPB) gives an account of the monitoring of the economic stimulus strategy announced by the Federal government in the summer of 2012.
This progress report gives an overview of the measures to follow up and reviews the progress of their implementation (situation on January 31, 2014). In addition, the report attempts to provide an analysis of those measures.
Reports - OPREP201401 (fr), (nl),
Over the last couple of decades, there has been a large scale reorganisation of manufacturing production processes within global value chains. This has been achieved through fragmentation and offshoring. Fostered by the fall in coordination costs due to information and communication technology developments, offshoring implies that firms increasingly source intermediates from abroad. In developed economies, this has raised fears of massive job losses. Most academic work, in contrast, fails to find evidence that offshoring contributes to lowering employment.
Working Papers - Working Paper 16-13 (en),
Speeches & presentations - SP131121_03 (fr),
Forecasts & Outlook - Economic outlook 2013-2014 (fr), (nl),
Speeches & presentations - SP130917_03 (nl),
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