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Publications

To promote transparency and provide information, the Federal Planning Bureau regularly publishes the methods and results of its works. The publications are organised in different series, such as Outlooks, Working Papers and Planning Papers. Some reports can be consulted here, along with the Short Term Update newsletters that were published until 2015. You can search our publications by theme, publication type, author and year.

Documents (1104)

2006

  • Long term energy and emissions'projections for Belgium with the PRIMES model 20/09/2006

    In the Royal Decree de dato December 6, 2005 (published in the Belgian Official Journal1 of December 19, 2005) the installation of a Commission Energy 2030 was officialised: the Commission is made up of a number of Belgian and foreign experts who will carefully scrutinize the energy future of Belgium on a long term horizon (2030). In order to fulfil this task, it was decided to start from a quantitative, scientific base. Because of the long expertise in modelling and analysing of long term energy projections, the Federal Planning Bureau (FPB) was asked to take up the task of providing the Commission with the necessary input. This input will subsequently be studied by the Commission, as well as complemented with analyses and other activities executed in its bosom.

    This report aims at gathering the work carried out by the FPB in the above framework. The heart of the analysis of the Belgian energy outlook to 2030 is provided by a set of energy scenarios. These scenarios provide a quantitative basis for the analysis of environmental, energy and economic challenges Belgium will be faced with in the coming years. Doing so, the analysis gives a valuable input to the report the Commission Energy 2030 has to deliver to M. Verwilghen, the federal Minister of Energy.

    Other publications - REPENERGY0601  Publication(en), Addendum(en),

  • The NIME Outlook for the World Economy 2006-2012 05/09/2006

    The August 2006 issue of the NIME Outlook for the World Economy presents a 2006-2012 macroeconomic projection for the major areas of the world. The outlook was produced using NIME, the Belgian Federal Planning Bureau’s macroeconometric world model. This issue features a stochastic evaluation of its world economic outlook. The major technical assumptions behind the outlook as well as a brief description of the NIME model are presented in the appendix.

    Forecasts & Outlook - NEO 02-06  Publication(en),

  • Linking household income to macro data to project poverty indicators 15/07/2006

    The Belgian Study Group on Ageing of the High Council of Finance, in its Annual Report, publishes the results of research on the budgetary and social  effects of ageing. In this context, the Federal Planning Bureau, in its capacity as secretariat and main research body of the Committee, has in recent years been stepping up its efforts to deve lop models based on socioeconomic micro data. The results of one of these models, de signed to make short-term projections of poverty indicators, are presented in this paper.

    Working Papers - Working paper 05-06  Publication(en),

  • Fiscal councils, independent forecasts and the budgetary process: lessons from the Belgian case 15/06/2006

    This paper describes the operating mode of the two existing Belgian fiscal councils as well as their role in the budgetary planning process. These institutions, created or reformed in depth in a context of large public deficits and increasing public debt-to-GDP ratios coupled with the regionalization of the Belgian state, are the result of a maturing process. The National Accounts Institute covers the positive side of the budgetary process, while the High Council of Finance deals with the normative side. Concerning the former domain, the creation of an independent institution to provide unbiased forecasts undeniably contributed to the consolidation of public finances in Belgium. In the context of the revised Stability and Growth Pact, lessons drawn from the Belgian experience can certainly be useful for other Member States willing to improve their fiscal institutional settings. Our chief recommendations for making the budgetary process successful are: institutions dealing with positive economics should enjoy a fully independent status but remain public; positive and normative issues should be completely separated from an institutional point of view; and responsibility should be shared between several strong independent institutions so as to minimize political pressure.

    Working Papers - Working paper 04-06  Publication(en),

  • Decomposition analysis of changes in CO2 emissions by the Belgian industries 19/05/2006

    Within the Belgian National Accounts Institute, the Federal Planning Bureau (FPB) has been assigned responsibility for the environmental satellite accounts. One of these accounts is the National Accounting Matrix including Environmental Accounts for Air pollution (NAMEA Air). The NAMEA Air for Belgium currently contains data on greenhouse gas emissions, acidifying emissions, photochemical emissions, emissions of fine dust particles and emissions of lead for 1990 and for the period 1994-2002. The air pollutant that has received the most attention over the last decade is, without any doubt, carbon dioxide, the emissions of which are closely linked to energy use. This special topic investigates the driving forces behind the changes in CO2 emissions by the Belgian industries by means of decomposition analysis. Emissions by households are thus not considered. The industries were responsible for the largest part of Belgian CO2 emissions, more specifically 76%, in 2002. In that year, CO2 emissions represented 87% of total greenhouse gas emissions covered by the Kyoto protocol.

    Articles - Article 2006051901  

  • A stochastic simulation evaluation of the risks related to NIME projections for the world economy 19/05/2006

    This Working Paper presents the methodology and results of a stochastic simulation evaluation of the risks related to the medium-term world economic outlook produced using the Federal Planning Bureau’s NIME model in January 2006. The results include confidence intervals around a baseline projection for the euro area, the United States and Japan, as well as probability estimates for specific occurrences.

    Articles - Working Paper 02-06  

  • STU 02-06 : Special Topic - Decomposition analysis of changes in CO2 emissions by the Belgian industries 19/05/2006

    HEADLINES BELGIAN ECONOMY - MAY 2006

    The medium-term outlook for Belgium points towards an average GDP growth rate of 2.2% during the 2006-2011 period, which is slightly higher than potential (2.0%). This pace of growth should follow a slowdown in economic growth in 2005 (1.5%) and a rebound in 2006 (2.4%). Economic growth in Belgium should remain slightly higher than in the euro area, on average.

    Despite moderate wage increases, the average yearly growth rate for private consumption should reach 1.8% during the 2006-2011 period, in particular because of the increase in household disposable income (stimulated especially by reductions in personal income tax and increases in employment and social benefits). Investment growth should reach 2.5% during the 2006-2011 period, mainly reflecting the path of business investment growth, but also an acceleration in public investment at the end of the projection period. Growth in exports should be 5.4% on average and the contribution of net exports to GDP growth is expected to be 0.3%-points. The external surplus, which was strongly reduced between 2002 and 2005, should increase again after 2007 and attain 3.2% of GDP in 2011 (partly as a result of the improvement of the terms of trade). Limited increases in wage costs, the decline in oil prices after 2007 and a negative output gap until the end of the projection period, should allow the inflation rate to remain below 2% in the medium term.

    The expected evolution of employment reflects a favourable macroeconomic context, a limited increase in wage costs and various policy measures. After the net creation of approximately 39,000 and 41,000 jobs in 2005 and 2006 respectively, about 35,000 jobs should be created every year during the 2007-2011 period. Between 2005 and 2011, industrial employment should fall by 30,000 persons, but the number of jobs created in market services should exceed 250,000. Nevertheless, in view of the strong increase in the labour force (mainly in the 50-64 age class) the fall in unemployment will be limited to 38,000 persons. The unemployment rate (broad administrative statistics) should fall from 14.3% in 2005 to 13.1% in 2011.

    Under the assumption of constant policy, public accounts are expected to deteriorate markedly, with a net public financing requirement of 0.3% of GDP appearing in 2006, widening to 1.2% in 2007, before gradually falling to 0.3% by the end of the projection period. Nevertheless, the total public debt to GDP ratio is still expected to decline from 93.9% in 2005 to 78.0% in 2011.

    Closed series - Short Term Update 02-06  Publication(en),

  • An Evaluation of the Risks Surrounding the 2006-2012 NIME Economic Outlook : Illustrative Stochastic Simulations 15/04/2006

    In this Working Paper, we describe how we used stochastic simulation to evaluate the risks surrounding the January 2006 nime Economic Outlook (neo) for the world economy. We summarise the main results by showing confidence intervals around the baseline projection as well as probabilities that certain events will occur. The results presented in this Working Paper are of an illustrative nature and do not constitute an update of the January 2006 nime Economic Outlook.

    Working Papers - Working Paper 02-06  Publication(en),

  • STU 01-06 : Special Topic - Fiscal Councils, independent forecasts and the budgetary process 27/03/2006

    HEADLINES BELGIAN ECONOMY - MARCH 2006

    In the wake of the economic recovery in Europe, Belgian GDP growth rose gradually from 0.1% in the first quarter to 0.6% in the last quarter of 2005. Quarterly growth should stabilise at 0.6% during the first half of 2006 and remain higher than 0.5% during the second half of the year. On a yearly basis, GDP growth should strengthen from 1.5% last year to 2.2% in 2006.

    This year, net exports as well as domestic demand should contribute positively to economic growth. Due to the European recovery, Belgian export growth will strengthen to 4.7%. The current account surplus, however, will increase very little as a result of the high oil prices, which will lead to a negative evolution in the terms of trade. Domestic demand will grow at a slower pace as business investment will weaken somewhat after a significant catch-up and some exceptional purchases in 2005. This slow-down will be partially compensated for by stronger public expenditure – in consumption and investment – as well as stronger private consumption. Consumer expenditure should accelerate to 1.6% as household disposable income is underpinned by employment growth and personal income tax cuts.

    After a net gain of 38,600 persons last year, employment is expected to record an average annual rise of 41,100 persons in 2006. The number of jobs is growing faster than the labour force, which should slightly reduce the unemployment rate (broad administrative statistics) from 14.3% last year to 14.1% in 2006. The ‘harmonised’ unemployment rate (Eurostat definition) should decline from 8.4% last year to 8.3% in 2006.

    Inflation should fall markedly in 2006 compared to 2005 due to a limited rise in unit wage costs and the fading of the effects of higher oil prices. The inflation picture is somewhat blurred by the persistent deterioration in the terms of trade and by the introduction of a new price index. The private consump-tion deflator should increase by 2.3%, the GDP deflator by 1.9% and the national index of consumer prices by 1.8%.

    Closed series - Short Term Update 01-06  Publication(en),

  • Economic impact of the oil shock on the Belgian economy 13/03/2006

    This working paper assesses the impact of the oil price shock on the Belgian economy and tries to explain why the impact has been very limited when compared to the oil price shocks in the seventies.

    Articles - Working Paper 01-06  

  • Price regulation in the sectors of over-the-counter medicines and old people’s homes 13/03/2006

    Price regulation has for a long time existed in a limited number of sectors in Belgium. The paper gives an overview of the legislation in this area and looks in particular at the sectors of over-the-counter medicines and old people’s homes. It describes the system and proposes a number of changes to the regulatory framework.

    Articles - Working Paper 19-05  

  • A Medium-Term Outlook for the World Economy: 2006-2012 13/03/2006

    The January 2006 issue of the NIME Economic Outlook (NEO) for the World Economy presents a 2006-2012 macroeconomic outlook for the major areas of the world. The outlook was produced using NIME, the Federal Planning Bureau’s macroeconometric world model. The January 2006 issue also features an assessment of the response of the euro area economy to a shift away from the direct taxation of labour towards the indirect taxation of final demand.

    Articles - NIME 2006 - JAN  

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