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To promote transparency and provide information, the Federal Planning Bureau regularly publishes the methods and results of its works. The publications are organised in different series, such as Outlooks, Working Papers and Planning Papers. Some reports can be consulted here, along with the Short Term Update newsletters that were published until 2015. You can search our publications by theme, publication type, author and year.
In the context of the European-funded sixth framework project, "Adequacy of Old-Age Income Maintenance in the EU (AIM)", a dynamic microsimulation model has been developed for Belgium, Germany and Italy. This model, called MIDAS, simulates future developments in the adequacy of pensions in Belgium, Italy and Germany, following wherever possible the projections and assumptions of the Ageing Working Group.
Articles - Article 2009030205
In order to prepare for the negotiations on the EU Energy and Climate Package (E/C Package), the Federal Planning Bureau was asked by the Belgian federal and regional authorities to conduct a study on the impact of the European Commission's proposal of January 2008. In the course of the study, various scenarios and sensitivity analyses were run. Next to a baseline, two main alternative scenarios were scrutinized: the 20/20 and 30/20 target scenarios, standing for an EU reduction of, respectively, 20% and 30% of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in the year 2020 compared to the level of 1990, and a mandatory 20% EU-wide share for renewable energy sources (RES) in Gross Final Energy Demand in 2020. The report then includes an analysis of the impact of both scenarios on the Belgian energy system and economy as well as on GHG emissions.
Articles - Article 2009030204
Worries about massive job losses have prompted a fast-growing literature on offshoring and its impact on employment in advanced economies. This paper examines the situation for Belgium. The offshoring intensity is computed as the share of imported intermediate inputs in output, based on a series of constant price supply- and-use tables for 1995-2003. Estimations of static and dynamic industry-level labour demand equations augmented by offshoring intensities, do not reveal a significant impact of either materials or business services offshoring on total employment for Belgium between 1995 and 2003, but this does not preclude a differential impact by skill-level.
Articles - Article 2009030203
This Working Paper evaluates the performance of the system of innovation in Wallonia for the most recent available period. Like the previous paper, this paper is based on the analysis of indicators reflecting the six main components of a system of innovation: knowledge development, human resources, valorisation of R&D, absorption capacity of innovation, entrepreneurship and innovation financing. A country's performance depends not only on the relative strength of each individual element but also on how effectively the components interact. These six components are evaluated from a European perspective: Wallonia is compared with European countries and European regions with similar socio-economic characteristics.
Articles - Article 2009030202
An efficient transport system is essential for the economic development of Belgium. Today it is clear that transport not only contributes positively to welfare, but also causes negative effects. Witness to this are the many traffic jams on the roads and the problems caused by air pollution. By sketching an image of what the future might bring, this Planning Paper aims to present elements that can support the formulation of transport policies. The time horizon of the study is 2030.
Articles - Article 2009030201
In 2008Q4, the financial crisis and the recession faced by the main trading partners took their toll and caused Belgian GDP to fall by 1.3% qoq. According to our February forecast, Belgian economic activity should continue to contract in the course of 2009 and only stabilise in the fourth quarter. As a consequence, Belgian GDP is projected to fall by 1.9% in 2009, after an increase of 1.1% in 2008. Despite the considerable downward revision of Belgian GDP growth for 2009 (last September a positive economic growth of 1.2% was forecast), the uncertainty surrounding this forecast remains exceptionally large and downside risks are likely to be greater than upside risks.
Belgian exports should fall by 4.6% this year, after an increase of 2.2% in 2008. Imports should decrease less than exports. Despite the drop in oil prices and the appreciation of the euro, the current account balance should remain negative and reach -1.8% of GDP in 2009.
In 2008, private consumption increased by 0.9%. The negative growth of private consumption in 2009 (-0.4%) is mainly due to historically low consumer confidence and negative wealth effects caused by the drop in asset prices. This should lead to a strong rise in the households' savings rate (up to 15.8%). Worsened demand prospects, the decline in business profitability, falling capacity utilisation rates and tightened lending conditions should exert a drag on business investment in 2009, which should fall by 4.6%. Household investment growth should also turn negative in 2009 (-1.6%), although this contraction will be mitigated somewhat by a temporary VAT reduction. Only public consumption and public investment growth rates are expected to remain positive.
This year, an average (net) loss of 24 700 jobs should be registered. Job losses in the course of 2009 will be far worse than appears from the annual averages: in 2009Q4, employment should be 59 100 persons lower than in 2008Q4. The harmonised Eurostat unemployment rate (which is based on labour force surveys) is expected to reach 8.2% in 2009, compared to 7.1% in 2008.
Despite high underlying inflation during the first half of 2009, total inflation, as measured by the yoy increase in the national index of consumer prices, should continue to decrease and even become slightly negative during summer. Only in the second half of this year should the expected oil price increase be reflected in inflation evolution. According to our inflation update of March, average inflation should decline from 4.5% in 2008 to 0.5% in 2009.
STU 1-09 was finalised on 2 March 2009.
Closed series - Short Term Update 01-09 (en),
Forecasts & Outlook - Economic forecasts 2009 (2) (fr), (nl),
Closed series - Planning Paper 107 (fr), (nl),
Speeches & presentations - SP090225_01 (nl),
Speeches & presentations - SP090218_01 (mix),
The Working Paper analyses the performances of the Walloon innovation system in 2008. This analysis concentrates on the six dimensions of the innovation system: knowledge development, human resources, R&D exploitation, innovation absorption capacity, entrepreneurial skills and financing capacity. These foundations are evaluated by comparing the performances of the Walloon innovation system with the performances of innovation systems of other countries and regions in Europe. They were chosen for their socio-economic proximity to the Walloon region. The examination of the Walloon innovation system reveals a problem that is essentially connected with the capacity to turn research and innovation efforts into economic results that are sufficient for the Region.
Working Papers - Working Paper 02-09 (fr),
Speeches & presentations - SP090129_01 (en),
The fear of massive job losses has prompted a fast-growing literature on offshoring and its impact on employment in advanced economies. This paper examines the situation for Belgium. The offshoring intensity is computed as a volume measure of the share of imported intermediate inputs in output based on a series of constant price supply-and-use tables for the period 1995-2003. Both materials and business services offshoring to high-wage and low-wage countries are addressed. The split-up according to the origin of the imported intermediates is done combining detailed trade data with data from the use table. The main findings are that materials offshoring stands at a higher level than business services offshoring, but that the latter grows much faster especially for the Central and Eastern European countries. Estimations of static and dynamic industry-level labour demand equations augmented by offshoring intensities do not reveal a significant impact of either materials or business services offshoring on total employment for Belgium between 1995 and 2003. However, this does not preclude a differential impact by skill-level.
Working Papers - Working Paper 01-09 (en),
Speeches & presentations - SP090121_01 (nl),
Speeches & presentations - OPFINCR0901 (fr),
Working Papers - Working Paper 24-08 (fr), (nl),
Working Papers - Working Paper 23-08 (nl),
Increased international economic integration and skill-biased technological change are often regarded as the main drivers of the rising inequality in wages and employment witnessed in industrialized countries in recent decades as they are believed to emphasize differences between individuals in level of education. However, proponents of a task-based view of technological change and offshoring stress the evolving content of tasks as the major determinant of shifts in labour demand and argue that this does not necessarily imply a clear-cut match between the level of education and job opportunities. Belgian data from the Structure and Distribution of Earnings Survey for the period 1999-2004 suggest that the level of wages is significantly correlated with the level of education but wage growth is not. Occupation seems to explain a statistically significant part of the wage level as well as wage growth of workers. The analysis supports the view that the level of education provides less information than the occupation of workers in explaining changes in wages and employment. Overall, it appears that a policy that simply aims to increase the level of education of the active population is not warranted. In addition to the risk of over-education, such a policy is not likely to alleviate the mismatch which to some extent exists between the competencies required by employers and the competencies offered by workers and the unemployed.
Working Papers - Working Paper 22-08 (en),
In order to prepare for the negotiations on the EU Energy and Climate Package, the Federal Planning Bureau was asked by the Belgian federal and regional authorities to conduct a study on the impact of the January 2008 European Commission’s proposal. In the course of this study, various scenarios were run. Next to a baseline, two main alternative scenarios were scrutinised: the 20/20 and 30/20 target scenarios, standing for an EU reduction of respectively 20% and 30% of GHG emissions in the year 2020 compared to the level of 1990 and a 20% mandatory EU share of RES in Gross Final Energy Demand in 2020. The report then includes an analysis of the impact of both scenarios on the Belgian energy system and economy as well as on GHG emissions.
Working Papers - Working Paper 21-08 (en),
The FPB has revised its medium-term outlook for 2008-2013 for the Belgian economy. For the 2008-2010 period, the outlook adopts the international economic scenario provided by the OECD outlook of November 2008. The uncertainty surrounding the results is exceptionally large and downside risks could prove to be greater than upside risks. The greatest downside risks include a longer than expected period of distress on financial markets, and that emerging markets could be hit harder than anticipated.
The outlook for Belgium shows average GDP growth reaching only 1.5% during the period 2008-2013 (1.9% for the period 2001-2007). This relatively weak performance is largely explained by weak GDP growth in 2008 (1.4%), a fall in economic growth next year (-0.3%) and a limited recovery in 2010. Over the period 2011-2013, GDP growth is expected to stabilise at a rate slightly above 2%, which might not allow the output gap to be completely closed by the end of the projection.
After dynamic growth in 2007, private consumption expansion should be much more limited in 2008 and 2009. From 2010 onwards, household demand growth should increase gradually and then stabilise at a rate close to 2%. After dynamic growth in 2008, gross fixed capital formation should slightly decrease in 2009, before recovering in 2010 and increasing by 2.4% on average during the 2011-2013 period. Given the unfavourable international environment next year, exports are expected to decrease in 2009. Over the period 2010-2013, exports should increase by 4.4% on average and the contribution of net exports to GDP growth is expected to be slightly positive.
The worsening of the economic situation should lead to a decrease in employment in 2009. In the medium term, employment should increase again, at a yearly rate reaching 0.8% at the end of the projection. With employment growth heavily affected by the adverse economic situation in the short run and in view of the increase in the labour force, the unemployment rate (broad definition) will soar to 12.9% by 2010 (against 11.9% in 2008), before levelling off at around 13.2% from 2011 onwards. Total administrative unemployment should stand at almost 700,000 persons in 2013 (65,000 persons more than in 2007).
Under the assumption of unchanged policy, the public accounts are expected to deteriorate markedly, with a net public financing requirement of 1.6% of GDP in 2009, 2.4% in 2010 and up to 2.6% in 2011-2013.
STU 04-08 was finalised on 11 December 2008.
Closed series - Short Term Update 04-08 (en),
Speeches & presentations - OPIBFP08 (mix),
This study presents some of the results of the transport satellite accounts (TSA) published recently (Planning Paper 106) in order to provide a first estimation of expenditure and revenue of the public administrations linked to transport in 1995 and 2000. From this information, the possibility to estimate the net public transfers towards the different mode of transport modes is analysed.
Working Papers - Working Paper 20-08 (fr),
Since mid-September, the financial crisis has entered an exceptionally turbulent new phase. The US and European authorities have had to take extraordinary measures in order to deal with solvency and liquidity problems in the banking sector. As financial conditions are likely to remain difficult, it is obvious that the crisis will have large negative effects on the world economy, although the size of these effects is currently very difficult to grasp due to huge uncertainties concerning the magnitude and the duration of the crisis.
This uncertainty explains the volatility of most indicators, which makes it currently very difficult to establish credible economic forecasts. The latest short-term forecasts of the FPB were finalised in the first half of September, i.e. before the aggravation of the financial turbulence. According to these forecasts, Belgian GDP growth should amount to 1.6% in 2008 and slow down to 1.2% in 2009. The 2009 government budget is based on this outlook.
In the light of recent financial sector developments, the latest FPB forecasts should be revised downwards, in line with revisions of economic growth by national and international institutions. In fact, the weakening of economic growth in the course of 2008 will probably be stronger than expected, while the subsequent recovery could take longer to materialise and could lack strength. The channels through which the financial crisis is affecting the real economy are discussed in the Special Topic of this Short Term Update.
Belgian business and consumer confidence have dropped to their lowest level in more than five years due to weakening economic growth and the financial crisis, which are tending to reinforce one another. Moreover, consumer confidence has suffered from the high number of lay-offs in large Belgian companies. On the other hand, the decline in oil prices and the depreciation of the euro have limited the worsening of sentiment somewhat through their positive effect on households’ purchasing power and export competitiveness.
Inflation forecasts for 2009 have been revised downwards since September, which is the result of two counteracting factors. In fact, the downward effect of falling oil prices on inflation is partly compensated by the stronger than expected increase in underlying inflation. According to our end-of-October inflation update, the increase in the national index of consumer prices should slow down from 4.6% in 2008 to 1.9% in 2009.
STU 3-08 was finalised on 31 October 2008.
Closed series - Short Term Update 03-08 (en),
Speeches & presentations - OPFINCR08 (fr), (nl),
This paper illustrates the deficiency of the production approach as a tool to measure a country’s responsibility for international environmental impacts. A use approach is presented as a more suitable tool. The difference between the two approaches is determined by a better grasp of international trade, which can lead to environmental leakage when a country specialises in the production of environmentally friendly products and has the environmentally unfriendly products which it consumes produced abroad. We show that in the period 1995-2002 Belgium was on average a provider of air emission intensive products for the rest of the world. Environmental leakage was mostly negative. However, the evolution of the Belgian environmental terms of trade shows that by 2002 its imports had become considerably more air emission intensive with respect to its exports than in 1995. There are indications that this evolution is due to a considerable increase of extra-EU imports of air emission intensive products. This in turn could point to environmentally inspired offshoring. However, the currently available data do not allow us to test this hypothesis.
Working Papers - Working Paper 19-08 (en),
Federal Planning Bureau
