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Publications

Dans un souci de transparence et d’information, le BFP publie régulièrement les méthodes et résultats de ses travaux. Les publications sont organisées en séries, entre autres, les perspectives, les working papers et planning papers. Certains rapports peuvent également être consultés ici, de même que les bulletins du Short Term Update publiés jusqu’en 2015. Une recherche par thématique, type de publication, auteur et année vous est proposée.

Documents (177)

2000

  • STU 01-00 : Special Topic - Government participation in Belgian companies 28/02/2000

    The recovery in world economic growth in 1999 led to a strong acceleration in economic growth in Belgium during the second half of 1999. Faced with improved prospects, the manufacturing sector is expected to build up stocks again from the fourth quarter of 1999 onwards, after having strongly reduced their stocks during the recent economic slowdown (mid-1998 to mid-1999).

    Fixed capital formation in non-industrial sectors increased strongly in 1999, private consumption grew at a relatively sustained pace, and the contribution from external trade was positive. For 1999 as a whole, economic growth in Belgium reached 2.3%. The upward trend of all demand components in the course of 1999, if confirmed, will lead to a positive carry-over effect for the year 2000.

    Economic activity in Europe should accelerate in 2000, US economic growth should be sustained and the emerging economies should continue their recovery. Belgian export markets should then grow faster in 2000 than in 1999. Moreover, the depreciation of the euro during the 1999-2000 period and the new cuts in non-wage costs should boost the price competitiveness of the Belgian economy. For the first time for more than 10 years, Belgium should even slightly increase its market shares.

    The contribution of stockbuilding towards economic growth should be largely positive, the rate of investment by companies should rise again and household investment should recover. The growth in household disposable income should reach 2.3% in real terms in 2000 (1.4% in 1999), thanks to a new strong creation in employment, a slightly higher growth in real wages and an increase in capital income. Private consumption should rise by 2.1% leaving the savings rate quasi unchanged.

    All in all, Belgian GDP growth should reach 3.2% in 2000, thanks to dynamic domestic demand (2.9%) and a net contribution from exports (0.4%).

    Oil prices more than doubled between December 1998 and December 1999. Energy prices are not, however, expected to continue rising in 2000, while underlying inflation should accelerate somewhat in the course of the year. The consumption price index should increase by 1.5% in 2000 (compared with 1.1% in 1999) and the health index by 1.3%.

    Growth prospects for 2000 should allow a further reduction of the public deficit.

    Séries clôturées - Short Term Update 01-00  Publication(en),

  • Les participations publiques dans le secteur marchand en Belgique 01/02/2000

    Depuis les années quatre-vingt, un grand nombre d’entreprises publiques ont été privatisées en Europe. Au Royaume-Uni, les premières privatisations ont été réalisées sous le gouvernement Thatcher. En France, après une vague de nationalisations qui a pris fin en 1982, les entreprises publiques ont progressivement été privatisées, sous le président Mitterand, durant la période de coalition dite de "cohabitation". En Belgique, un groupe de travail a été créé en 1986 avec pour mission d’étudier la rationalisation et la privatisation des entreprises publiques et mixtes. Les travaux de ce groupe ont débouché sur la vente ou la vente partielle des entreprises publiques suivantes: la Sabena, Belgacom, la sni et la cger. En Europe, les privatisations les plus récentes ont été réalisées après la chute du mur de Berlin en 1989. Dans l’ancienne république démocratique allemande, les entreprises d’Etat ont été privatisées par la Treuhandanstalt. Les autres pays du Comecon ont également suivi sur la voie des privatisations. En Italie, des privatisations de grande envergure sont réalisées depuis 1997. Ces privatisations étaient indispensables dans l’objectif de pouvoir participer à l’euro dès le 1er janvier 1999.

    Séries clôturées - Planning Paper 87  Publication(fr), Publicatie(nl),

1999

  • STU 03-99 : Special Topic - Determinants of Belgium’s export performance 15/07/1999

    In contrast with strong global economic growth in 1998, Belgian exports declined substantially during the third and fourth quarter, as the crisis in South-East Asia and in some other emerging economies progressively affected intra-European trade. Even given a scenario of fairly strong Belgian export recovery during the second half of the current year, the low level reached in the first quarter of 1999 implies a low annual growth rate for exports in 1999.

    Employment creation should remain significant in 1999 (about 1.1%); domestic demand (2.1%) should keep driving economic growth, although at a much slower pace than in 1998. The implications of the dioxin crisis remain largely uncertain. Assuming that most detrimental effects would progressively disappear after three months, it should reduce exports in 1999 by 0.3% and GDP by 0.2%. In this scenario, GDP growth in 1999 should be 1.7%; net exports contribution to GDP growth would be negative by 0.2%.

    Economic growth in 2000 should attain 2.5% and be supported by better export performance (5.1%): the depreciation of the Euro in 1999 should increase the competitiveness of the Euro-zone, boosting our main export markets. Belgian exports should also take advantage from the decrease in employer's contributions to social security, and from a moderate recovery in our agricultural and agro-industrial exports.

    Private consumption growth (1.8%) should remain moderate as no further impulse is expected from households' savings. Business gross capital formation should remain weak. Profits and related revenues should suffer from, among others, the deterioration in the terms of trade due to higher energy prices and the depreciation in the BEF effective exchange rate during the first half of 1999, as well as from the financial consequences of the dioxin crisis.

    The pace of economic growth, the different measures limiting wage increases, and the active labour market policy measures should allow employment to keep growing in 2000 (1.0%). Inflation should remain subdued at 1.3%.

    Séries clôturées - Short Term Update 03-99  Publication(en),

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