Description et utilisation du modèle QUEST III R&D

Le modèle d’équilibre général dynamique stochastique QUEST III R&D sera utilisé pour simuler les effets à long terme des mesures structurelles et/ou (para-)fiscales de chaque parti politique dans le cadre du ‘chiffrage des programmes électoraux 2024’. Le présent document résume les caractéristiques du modèle, en présente la structure et les principaux mécanismes de transmission ainsi que les limites. Le fonctionnement du modèle est ensuite illustré à l’aide de cinq réformes structurelles et (para‑)fiscales stylisées.

Les branches clés de la R&D en Belgique - Évolutions structurelles et stratégie d’entreprise

Le processus de production des branches qui font le plus de R&D en Belgique s’est-il modifié au cours des 10 dernières années ? Cette analyse tente de répondre à cette question en utilisant à la fois les données sectorielles et les données d’entreprises.

L’industrie pharmaceutique en Belgique - Analyse de compétitivité

Ce Working Paper analyse la position compétitive de l’industrie pharmaceutique sur la période 2000-2017. L’évolution de la compétitivité prix/coût et de la compétitivité non-coût est étudiée sur base d’une comparaison avec nos pays voisins, la France, les Pays-Bas et l’Allemagne, et le Danemark, l’Irlande, la Slovénie et la Suisse. L’étude analyse également une série de facteurs globaux et de facteurs spécifiques à la pharmacie susceptibles d’influencer la compétitivité. 

Description du modèle QUEST III R&D

Le modèle d’équilibre général dynamique stochastique QUEST III R&D sera utilisé pour simuler les effets à long terme des mesures structurelles de chaque parti politique dans le cadre du ‘chiffrage des programmes électoraux 2019’. Le présent document résume les caractéristiques du modèle, en présente la structure et les principaux mécanismes de transmission ainsi que les limites. Le fonctionnement du modèle est ensuite illustré à l’aide de quatre réformes structurelles stylisées.

Growth and Productivity in Belgium

L’objectif de ce rapport est de donner une vision des principaux déterminants de la croissance économique et de l’évolution de la productivité en Belgique, en comparaison avec ses trois pays voisins et les Etats-Unis sur longue période, de 1970 à 2015. Il contient aussi une analyse détaillée de la période récente, 2000-2015, permettant de mettre en évidence l’impact de la crise économique et financière de 2008.

Public Investment in Belgium - Current State and Economic Impact

L’investissement des autorités publiques belges, et en particulier la part consacrée à l’infrastructure, est relativement faible à la fois historiquement et en comparaison avec les pays voisins. Une simulation à l’aide du modèle Quest III de la Commission européenne suggère qu’une augmentation permanente de l’investissement du gouvernement de 0,5% du PIB augmente le PIB, la consommation privée et l’investissement privé. L’impact de mécanismes alternatifs de financement est comparé. Finalement, une réallocation, budgétairement neutre, de l’investissement en faveur de l’infrastructure conduirait, déjà à moyen terme, à des gains substantiels de PIB et de ses principales composantes.

Labour productivity growth in Belgium - Long-term trend decline and possible actions

Le papier analyse la tendance à long terme de la croissance économique belge et l’évolution récente de la productivité du travail en prenant en compte l’impact de la crise. Il identifie les causes de la baisse tendancielle des gains de productivité en analysant les changements structurels de l’économie et en appliquant la méthodologie de la comptabilité de la croissance à des données sectorielles. Enfin, il envisage les actions politiques possibles qui minimisent l’impact négatif sur la demande agrégée tout en maximisant l’effet positif sur la croissance de la productivité du travail.

Le système d’innovation en Wallonie

Le Working Paper analyse les performances du système d’innovation wallon en 2010. Cette analyse s’articule autour des six dimensions du système d’innovation : le développement des connaissances, les ressources humaines, la valorisation de la R&D, la capacité d’absorption de l’innovation, la capacité d’entreprendre et la capacité de financement. L’évaluation de ces piliers est réalisée en comparant les performances du système d’innovation wallon aux performances des systèmes d’innovation d’autres pays et régions d’Europe qui partagent un héritage industriel  comparable à celui de la Wallonie. L’examen du système d’innovation wallon fait ressortir les bonnes performances en termes de mobilisation des ressources financières en faveur de la R&D mais aussi un problème potentiel au niveau des ressources humaines disponibles pour cette activité. Le maintien d’un flux de compétences suffisant grâce aux nouveaux diplômés en sciences et ingénieurs et à l’utilisation de la formation tout au long de la vie constitue toujours le défi majeur des années à venir.

Short Term Update 04-11 : Special Topic - Relative performance of Belgian GDP since the onset of the financial crisis

Headlines Belgian economy

The European Union set up the Europe 2020 Strategy as the successor to the Lisbon Strategy to monitor and stimulate structural reform by the Member States. In the first semester of each year (the so-called European Semester), the Member States compile their Stability & Convergence and National Reform Programmes. At the turn of the semester the European Council develops policy recommendations to be implemented, preferably during the second semester. Sound performance on structural issues lays a foundation for healthy potential growth around which the business cycle oscillates.

Following the calendar of this renewed strategy, the Federal Planning Bureau decided to move the structural performance update – traditionally published in December - to the March issue and adapt the calendar of the business-cycle updates accordingly. The present December issue is, however, a one-off issue exclusively devoted to the system of innovation. Innovation has been recognised in the Europe 2020 strategy as the first of seven ‘flagships’ that should secure smart, sustainable, and inclusive growth. Innovation should have a positive impact on productivity growth and hence encourage potential GDP growth and employment. Measured in terms of R&D, not more than a few Member States achieve an innovation effort that is comparable to that of the other advanced economies of the world.

The system of innovation is an assembly of six interlinked dimensions: knowledge development by R&D; human resources; valorisation of R&D, e.g. through patents; innovation absorption capacity within and among enterprises; entrepreneurship; and financing. A good performance on each of the six is needed for a system to perform optimally. This December issue monitors the performance of Belgium on each of the dimensions. Other EU countries, the USA, and Japan serve as a benchmark. The performance seems to be mixed, so efforts are still needed to drive further improvement of the Belgian innovation system as a condition for growth and jobs.

STU 04-11 was finalised on 16 December 2011.

Estimation of inter-industry domestic and international R&D stocks for Belgium

Ce Working Paper traite de l’estimation de stocks de R&D directs, domestiques interindustriels et internationaux pour 25 branches d’activité belges sur la période 1995-2007. Deux catégories de stocks sont construites pour estimer les « rent spillovers » et les « knowledge spillovers » potentiels. Les stocks de R&D domestiques interindustriels et étrangers sont pondérés à l’aide des tableaux emplois- ressources et des données sur le commerce international pour estimer les « rent spillovers » et à l’aide de matrices de citations de brevets pour les « knowledge spillovers ».

The determinants of industry-level total factor productivity in Belgium

Dans ce Working Paper, l’impact des déterminants potentiels de la productivité totale des facteurs, c’est-à-dire de la part de l’output qui ne peut pas être expliquée par la quantité de facteurs de production, est estimé pour la Belgique en utilisant des données sectorielles couvrant la période 1988-2007.

Short Term Update 04-10 : Special topic - The Europe 2020 Strategy: economic forecasts 2010-2020

Headlines Belgian Economy

In October, the FPB prepared an update of its medium-term economic outlook of May 2010. This new outlook covers a longer period (2010-2020) than usual because it was drawn up in the framework of the macroeconomic surveillance process under the Europe 2020 Strategy, with a view to the preparation of the draft Belgian National Reform Programme.

This new outlook for Belgium is based on an international context that is marked by a recovery that should emerge in 2010-2011 and even gain momentum in the medium term. Nevertheless, the uncertainty surrounding these forecasts continues to be higher than before the financial crisis. Large budget deficits and global imbalances continue to threaten the stability of worldwide economic growth.

Yearly Belgian economic growth should amount to approximately 1.8% in 2010 and 2011 (based on our September forecast described in STU 3-10) and fluctuate around 2% thereafter. After a sharp decline in 2009, domestic demand has been expected to rise again in 2010, despite the on-going fall in business investment. As of 2011, domestic demand should rise at an average yearly rate of 1.8% as its various components regain their trend-based growth. Belgian exports, which fell by 11% in 2009, have recovered significantly in 2010. Thereafter, exports should grow at a rate close to its historical average. The contribution of net exports to GDP growth should be positive for the whole projection period (0.3-0.4 %-points on average for 2012-2020). Employment seems to have already experienced a moderate recovery in 2010.

Employment should increase further in 2011 and 2012, but at a limited pace as employers try to push up labour productivity and average working time from the historically very low levels that they reached in 2009.  From 2013 to 2015, employment growth should become more sustained before gradually dropping again towards the end of the forecast. Employment as a percentage of the population aged between 20 and 64 years should initially fall from 68% in 2008 to 66.9% in 2010, but should recover to 68.2% in 2015 and 69.8% in 2020, a rate still well below the 75% target set by the EU. Unemployment (broad
administrative definition) is expected to peak in 2012 at a level that is 103 000 units higher than in 2008. From 2013 onwards, unemployment should slowly decline and reach 591 000 units in 2020.

The general government budget deficit should shrink from 6% of GDP in 2009 to 4.8% of GDP in 2010, 4.6% in 2011 and 4.5% in 2012. Thereafter, the deficit should remain almost constant up to 2020. A  further and considerable fiscal adjustment is thus necessary to cut back the deficit to 3% of GDP in 2012 and achieve a balanced budget in 2015 in accordance with the Stability Programme of January 2010.

STU 04-10 was finalised on 22 December 2010.

Comparaison des composantes de la croissance de la productivité : Belgique, Allemagne, France et Pays-Bas 1996-2007

Afin de mieux comprendre la faible croissance de la productivité du travail en Belgique, sur la période 1996‐2007, ce working paper fournit pour ce pays et ses trois voisins, d’abord une analyse des niveaux de productivité et, ensuite, une décomposition de la croissance de la productivité selon la méthode de la comptabilité de la croissance pour les principales branches d’activité de l’économie marchande. Cette décomposition permet de souligner la contribution relativement importante de l’intensification en capital de la production dans la plupart des branches d’activité tant de l’industrie manufacturière que des services marchands. Cette augmentation du capital par heure prestée est principalement une augmentation en quantité dans l’industrie manufacturière et en qualité (effet de composition des investissements) dans les services marchands. Parallèlement, la décomposition de la croissance de la  productivité du travail permet aussi de souligner la faiblesse relative de la croissance de la productivité totale des facteurs, c’est‐à‐dire de l’efficacité dans la combinaison des facteurs de production, dans la majorité des branches d’activité de l’économie marchande belge.

L’évolution des coûts unitaires du travail en Belgique de 1996 à 2008

Ce working paper décrit les évolutions des coûts unitaires du travail d’abord en comparaison avec les trois pays voisins (1996‐2007) ensuite en comparaison intersectorielle (1996‐2008). L’analyse met en évidence le rôle prépondérant joué par les évolutions de productivité dans les performances de coûts unitaires du travail dans l’industrie manufacturière mais aussi dans les services marchands. La chimie, la fabrication de matériel de transport, la fabrication d’appareils électriques et électroniques et les activités financières sont les branches d’activité affichant les moins bonnes performances de productivité au cours des années récentes.

Le système d’innovation en Wallonie

Sur base d'indicateurs couvrant les six piliers du système d'innovation - le développement des connaissances, les ressources humaines, la capacité de valorisation, la capacité d'absorption, l'entrepreneuriat et le financement à risque - le Working Paper analyse les performances du système d'innovation wallon en le comparant aux pays européens et aux régions européennes qui ont un héritage industriel commun avec la Wallonie.

Short Term Update 04-09

In view of the new round of stability and convergence programmes (SCP) by the EMU member states, the FPB transmitted a medium-term outlook for the Belgian economy to the federal government. In this outlook, the short-term international assumptions are based on the November forecasts of the EC. These assumptions result in a gradual recovery of Belgian GDP in 2010 (0.8%) and 2011 (1.6%), after a decline of 3.1% in 2009. More information on this simulation can be found on pages 5-6.

As world trade appears to recover at a faster pace than expected in the EC outlook, the FPB produced a technical update of the SCP-simulation. This second simulation results in relatively stronger Belgian economic growth in 2010 and 2011 (1.1% and 1.7% respectively). From 2012 to 2014 economic growth is expected to be 2.1% on average, which might not be sufficient to close the output gap by 2014. Comments in the next paragraphs are based on this exercise.

Private demand was heavily affected by the financial and economic crisis. Private consumption suffered from a lack of confidence which brought an important increase along in the savings rate in 2009. In the medium term, consumption growth should gradually recover but remain below 2%. Gross fixed capital formation plummeted in 2009 and is unlikely to recover soon as idle production capacity is still abundant. From 2011 to 2014, average investment growth should amount to 2.1%. Exports declined by more than 10% in 2009, but should recover from 2010 onwards and reach an average growth rate of 4.4% from 2011 to 2014.

As employment typically reacts with a lag to the business cycle, the decrease in employment should even be stronger in 2010 than in 2009, before increasing gradually from 2011 onwards. The (broad administrative) unemployment rate should increase by 2.5 percentage points in 3 years and reach 14.3% in 2011. From 2012 onwards the unemployment rate should diminish somewhat, but total administrative unemployment should still amount to more than 730 000 persons in  2014 (130 000 persons more than in 2008).

Due to the recession the public deficit increased to 5.8% of GDP in 2009. Under an unchanged policy assumption the net public financing requirement should decline by 0.6% of GDP in 2010 and roughly stabilise somewhat below 5.5% in the medium term.

STU 04-09 was finalised on 21 December 2009.

La position relative de l’économie belge en Europe

Ce working paper analyse le lien entre l’évolution de la position relative et les prix relatifs de la manufacture et des services marchands belges dans l’ensemble européen sur la période 2000-2005. L’évolution des prix relatifs est, ensuite, décomposée en évolution des coûts unitaires relatifs de production pour déterminer l’origine des mouvements de prix observés. L’analyse repose sur la base de données EUKLEMS telle que publiée en mars 2008.

Le système d’innovation en Wallonie

Le Working Paper analyse les performances du système d’innovation wallon en 2008. Cette analyse s’articule autour des six dimensions du système d’innovation : le développement des connaissances, les ressources humaines, la valorisation de la R&D, la capacité d’absorption de l’innovation, la capacité d’entreprendre et la capacité de financement. L’évaluation de ces piliers est réalisée en comparant les performances du système d’innovation wallon aux performances des systèmes d’innovation d’autres pays et régions d’Europe choisies pour leur proximité socioéconomique avec la Région wallonne. L’examen du système d’innovation wallon fait ressortir un problème essentiellement lié à la capacité de transformer les efforts de recherche et d’innovation en retombées économiques suffisantes pour la Région.
 

STU 04-08 : Special Topic : The Belgian financial system at the onset of the crisis

The FPB has revised its medium-term outlook for 2008-2013 for the Belgian economy. For the 2008-2010 period, the outlook adopts the international economic scenario provided by the OECD outlook of November 2008. The uncertainty surrounding the results is exceptionally large and downside risks could prove to be greater than upside risks. The greatest downside risks include a longer than expected period of distress on financial markets, and that emerging markets could be hit harder than anticipated.

The outlook for Belgium shows average GDP growth reaching only 1.5% during the period 2008-2013 (1.9% for the period 2001-2007). This relatively weak performance is largely explained by weak GDP growth in 2008 (1.4%), a fall in economic growth next year (-0.3%) and a limited recovery in 2010. Over the period 2011-2013, GDP growth is expected to stabilise at a rate slightly above 2%, which might not allow the output gap to be completely closed by the end of the projection.

After dynamic growth in 2007, private consumption expansion should be much more limited in 2008 and 2009. From 2010 onwards, household demand growth should increase gradually and then stabilise at a rate close to 2%. After dynamic growth in 2008, gross fixed capital formation should slightly decrease in 2009, before recovering in 2010 and increasing by 2.4% on average during the 2011-2013 period. Given the unfavourable international environment next year, exports are expected to decrease in 2009. Over the period 2010-2013, exports should increase by 4.4% on average and the contribution of net exports to GDP growth is expected to be slightly positive.

The worsening of the economic situation should lead to a decrease in employment in 2009. In the medium term, employment should increase again, at a yearly rate reaching 0.8% at the end of the projection. With employment growth heavily affected by the adverse economic situation in the short run and in view of the increase in the labour force, the unemployment rate (broad definition) will soar to 12.9% by 2010 (against 11.9% in 2008), before levelling off at around 13.2% from 2011 onwards. Total administrative unemployment should stand at almost 700,000 persons in 2013 (65,000 persons more than in 2007).

Under the assumption of unchanged policy, the public accounts are expected to deteriorate markedly, with a net public financing requirement of 1.6% of GDP in 2009, 2.4% in 2010 and up to 2.6% in 2011-2013.

STU 04-08 was finalised on 11 December 2008.

Growth and Productivity in Belgium

L'objectif de ce rapport est de fournir un aperçu des principaux moteurs de la croissance économique et de l'évolution de la productivité en Belgique. Cette analyse est effectuée en comparaison avec l'Union Européenne et les Etats-Unis à l'aide d'une base de données homogène couvrant la période 1970-2005. La méthodologie de la comptabilité de la croissance permet de d'expliquer la croissance de la valeur ajoutée et de la productivité du travail pour l'économie totale, la manufacture et les services marchands. Cet exercice de décomposition diffère des études précédentes car il utilise les flux de services du capital plutôt que le stock de capital et les flux de services du travail plutôt que le nombre d'heures travaillées pour mesurer la contribution de ces facteurs de production à la croissance de la valeur ajoutée et de la productivité du travail. Ce rapport fournit également les contributions des principales industries à la croissance de la valeur ajoutée, de l'emploi et de la productivité.

Les déterminants de l’innovation dans une petite économie ouverte : le cas de la Belgique

Ce working paper étudie, à l’aide d’un panel couvrant 20 secteurs d’activité marchands belges sur la période 1987-2005, le lien entre la croissance de la productivité multifactorielle (PMF) et trois facteurs déterminants identifiés par la littérature économique : les efforts en R&D des entreprises, la qualification de la main-d’oeuvre et la diffusion des technologies de l’information et de la communication (TIC). Cette analyse est réalisée dans le cadre du modèle développé par Aghion et Howitt qui lie l’évolution de la PMF à la distance du secteur par rapport à la frontière technologique mondiale.

Le système d’innovation en Wallonie

Le Working Paper analyse les performances du système d’innovation wallon en 2007. Cette analyse s’articule autour des six dimensions du système d’innovation : le développement des connaissances, les ressources humaines, la valorisation de la R&D, la capacité d’absorption de l’innovation, la capacité d’entreprendre et la capacité de financement. L’évaluation de ces piliers est réalisée en comparant les performances du système d’innovation wallon aux performances des systèmes d’innovation d’autres pays et régions d’Europe choisies pour leur proximité socioéconomique avec la Région wallonne. L’examen du système d’innovation wallon fait ressortir un problème essentiellement lié à la capacité de transformer les efforts de recherche et d’innovation en retombées économiques suffisantes pour la Région.

STU 04-07 : Special Topic : Why the medium-low paid benefit less from gross wage increases than the better paid

On the basis of its short term economic forecast of September and revised figures for the medium-term international economic environment, the FPB has updated its medium-term outlook 2007-2012. GDP growth should reach 2.1% on average and should be driven by both domestic demand and exports, although the structural loss of export market shares should remain significant: while growth in our potential export markets will reach 6.8% a year on average, exports are expected to record an average annual increase of 5.4%.

The growth of private consumption (1.8% on average) should be in line with the growth of real disposable income (1.9% on average). Gross fixed capital formation should continue to register sustained growth, attaining an average of 3.1%, mainly reflecting an increase in business investment, but also an acceleration of public investment in view of the local elections of 2012. Inflation (as measured by private consumption deflator growth) should be below 2% on average during the projection period, despite an acceleration in 2008: inflation could even climb to 2.5% next year, according to the latest update of the monthly inflation forecasts of FPB. Limited wage increases (lower than productivity gains), the increase in interest rates, a negative output gap and a moderate increase in imported costs are the main factors accounting for the low inflation rate in the medium term.

Total employment will increase by more than 40,000 jobs a year on average during the projection period, due to sustained economic growth combined with persistently modest labour productivity (1.4% per year). Due to ongoing structural shifts in the sectoral composition of employment, the manufacturing industry will incur a further loss of 6,000 jobs a year on average, whereas market services should gain 46,000 jobs a year. The employment rate is expected to increase from 62.6% in 2006 to 65.4% in 2012; the fall in the unemployment rate (from 13.8% in 2006 to 11.0% in 2012 -broad definition) should accelerate at the end of the projection period, when baby-boomers will leave the labour force on a massive scale.

The pace of employment growth should have nearly doubled during the period 2001-2012 compared with the previous decade, despite very similar average economic growth rates for both periods.

STU 04-07 was finalised on 10 December 2007.

Market services labour productivity growth in three small European countries: Austria, Belgium and the Netherlands

In order to improve our understanding of the divergent evolutions that recently emerged between European countries in terms of labour productivity, this paper compares the labour productivity growth of three small open European countries: Austria, Belgium and the Netherlands. The analysis focuses on market services as they are the most important single factor that is responsible for the divergences. The comparison shows that, while Austria and Belgium recorded a decrease in their productivity growth between 1995 and 2004, the Netherlands followed the American pattern and has recorded an increase in their growth rate since 1995. The decomposition of labour productivity growth makes it possible to underline the important role played by total factor productivity (TFP) in the Dutch upsurge in productivity growth. The breakdown of the data by industry shows the importance of the Distribution sector in the Dutch performance. The growth of TFP observed in the Distribution sector is then linked to different potential determinants: ICT accumulation and use, labour qualifications, R&D and innovation and regulations.

Growth and Productivity in Belgium

The objective of this report is to provide an overview of the main drivers of economic growth and productivity evolution in Belgium between 1970 and 2004, based on a consistent data set. The growth accounting methodology is applied to explain value added and labour productivity growth for total economy, manufacturing and market services. This decomposition exercise diverges from what has been applied in Belgium up to now, as it uses capital services flows rather than capital stock to measure the contribution of capital factor to production growth. Contributions of the main industries to value added, employment and productivity growth are also estimated.

Capital services and total factor productivity measurements : impact of various methodologies for Belgium

This Working Paper presents the different methodologies currently used to construct a volume index of capital services and analyzes the effects of methodological changes on capital services and total factor productivity estimates for Belgium over the period 1970-2004. The measurement of capital services is realized in two steps. First, productive capital stocks have to be estimated for each type of asset. Two methodologies are generally used: the geometric and the hyperbolic profile. Secondly, these stocks are aggregated, using the user costs of capital (exante or ex-post approach) as weights to derive an overall index. For the economy as a whole and the entire period, under an ex-post approach, the volume indices of capital services estimated with a hyperbolic age-efficiency profile grow at a higher rate than the indices estimated with a geometric profile. This general conclusion is, however, not observed in every sector. Under an ex-ante approach, the different volume indices are quite similar for the whole economy, even if the indices grow generally at a slightly higher rate in the case of a geometric pattern. A higher growth rate of the volume indices generates a higher capital contribution and, consequently, a lower TFP contribution. Over long periods of time, the different TFP estimates are relatively similar. Over shorter periods, the different methodologies generate more significant variations in the TFP contribution.

STU 04-06 : Special Topic : Promoting an innovative economy: the Belgian National Reform Programme

In the October update of the FPB medium-term outlook for Belgium, GDP growth reaches an average of 2.3% for the 2006-2011 period. This development will be driven by both domestic demand and exports, although the contribution of net exports to economic growth is expected to be limited. The growth of private consumption (1.9% on average) should be in line with the growth of household disposable income in real terms (2% on average). Gross fixed capital formation should grow by 2.7% (on average). The structural loss of export market shares should remain significant, with exports increasing by 5.5% a year on average, compared with a 6.8% growth in our potential export markets.

After climbing to 2.4% in 2006 because of high energy prices, inflation (as measured by the private consumption deflator) should fall below 2% in the medium term, mainly because of limited wage growth, the increase in interest rates and moderate rises in prices of imports (notably owing to the decrease in oil prices). Total employment is expected to increase by about 38,500 jobs a year during the 2006-2011 period, despite new job losses in manufacturing. The factors behind this performance are: a relatively favourable macroeconomic context, limited wage increases, a further small reduction in working time and various measures taken to promote employment. Nevertheless, the fall in the unemployment rate is expected to be limited due to the substantial rise in the labour force. However, at the end of the projection period - when baby-boomers will leave the labour force on a massive scale - the growth of the labour force should lose momentum, allowing the decrease in the unemployment rate to accelerate.

All in all, economic growth should be stronger for the next six years compared to the previous six years, leading to the same average GDP growth rate during the period 2000-2011 as during the period 1990-1999. At the same time, the pace of employment growth should have nearly doubled (yearly 35,000 on average during the same period 2000-2011, against slightly less than 20,000 yearly during the former decade), reflecting a considerable decline in productivity gains.

This medium term outlook does not take into account the measures taken within the framework of the 2007 budget.

STU 4-06 was finalised on 11 December 2006.

Le financement public de l’innovation : Etude comparative Finlande, Suède, Belgique / De overheidsfinanciering van innovatie: Vergelijkende studie van Finland, Zweden en België

A la demande des partenaires sociaux, le secrétariat du Conseil Central de l’Economie a réalisé un diagnostic de l’état de la recherche et de l’innovation en Belgique (CRB, 2006). Un des principaux problèmes identifiés dans ce diagnostic est la part limitée du secteur public dans le financement de la recherche. Au-delà d’un problème quantitatif, les résultats atteints par le système d’innovation belge conduisent aussi à s’interroger sur l’efficacité de ce financement public.

Politique économique structurelle : l’agenda de Lisbonne

Le Planning Paper  101 « Politique économique structurelle : l’agenda de Lisbonne » a pour but d’analyser la dimension micro-économique de la stratégie de Lisbonne. Il s’attache à mettre en évidence les assises théoriques de ce pilier, l’évolution des conceptions dans la mise en œuvre de cette partie de la stratégie et de sa nécessaire coordination avec les deux autres piliers de la stratégie et les principaux résultats obtenus tant au niveau de l’Union dans son ensemble qu’au niveau belge. Pour ce faire, il détaille aussi la stratégie de Lisbonne renouvelée telle qu’elle fut adoptée par le Conseil européen de Bruxelles en mars 2005 et qui recentre l’action sur un partenariat pour la croissance et l’emploi.

STU 04-05 : Special Topic - Transdisciplinarity and the governance of sustainable development

HEADLINES BELGIAN ECONOMY - DECEMBER 2005

The latest update of the FPB medium-term outlook for Belgium shows an average GDP growth reaching 2.1% during the 2005-2010 period. This development can be largely accounted for by both domestic demand and exports, although the contribution of net exports to economic growth is expected to be limited; the current account should continue to decrease until 2006 due to terms of trade losses. Private consumption should grow at a moderate pace during the projection period (1.7% on average), in line with growth of households’ disposable income in real terms. At the same time, gross fixed capital formation (and particularly business investment) should grow at a sustained pace with annual growth reaching 2.9% on average. The structural loss of export market share should be important, with exports increasing by 5% a year on average, compared with a 6.5% growth of our potential export markets.

Inflation should reach 2.2% on average during the projection period, due to figures close to 3% in 2005 and 2006. The current acceleration is explained by high energy prices and the recent depreciation of the euro against the dollar. However, inflation should be around 2% in 2007 and fall below 2% at the end of the projection period, mainly because of limited wage increases and moderate rises in imported costs. Employment is expected to increase by about 33,000 jobs a year during the 2005-2010 period. This performance can be explained by several factors: a relatively favourable macroeconomic context, limited wage increases, a - although very slow - reduction in working time and various measures taken to promote employment. Nevertheless, the fall in the unemployment rate should be very limited due to a considerable increase in the working population.

The FPB October update of the medium term outlook for Belgium does not yet take into account the measures taken within the framework of the 2006 budget.

European R&D Strategy: impact and feasibility study for Belgium

Following the Lisbon strategy designed to transform the European economy into the most competitive and dynamic knowledge-based society, the Barcelona Summit quantified one of the available instruments to reach this ambitious objective by fixing the amount of resources which have to be devoted to r&d by 2010, at 3% of the European gdp.

What could be the implications of the Barcelona objective in terms of the main economic variables for Belgium and the eu? What are the needs for human capital to reach this objective? How are these needs covered by the current trends in the supply of qualified labour in Belgium? These are the main questions analysed in the present working paper.

STU 04-04 : Special Topic - Geographic market specialisation and export performance

The latest update of the FPB’s medium-term outlook for Belgium shows average GDP growth reaching 2.3% during the 2004-2009 period. This development can be largely accounted for by domestic demand, whereas the role of (net) exports is expected to be more limited. As in 2003, private consumption should evolve in quite a dynamic way during the projection period (1.9% on average), mainly as a result of an expansion of households’ disposable income. At the same time, gross fixed capital formation (and particularly business investment) should recover, with annual growth reaching 3%. The structural loss of export market share should be confirmed with exports increasing by 5.3% a year on average, compared with growth of 6.3% of our potential export markets.

Inflation should remain slightly below 2% in the medium term, mainly thanks to limited wage increases and moderate rises in imported costs. Employment is expected to increase by about 32,000 jobs a year during the 2005-2009 period. This performance can be explained by several factors: a relatively favourable macroeconomic context, limited wage increases, a reduction in working time and various measures taken to promote employment. At the same time, the working population should rise considerably. As a consequence, despite the creation of many jobs, the fall in the unemployment rate should be very limited.

The FPB’s October update of the medium term outlook for Belgium does not yet take into account the measures decided within the framework of the 2005 budget.

La R&D et l'innovation en Belgique : diagnostic sectoriel

L'innovation est un déterminant essentiel de la croissance à long terme de la productivité et donc de la croissance économique. Elle dépend directement des activités de recherche et de développement qui constituent une source importante de l’innovation. C’est pourquoi l'Union européenne a adopté en mars 2002, lors du Conseil européen de Barcelone, l'objectif d'accroître les investissements en r&d afin d'atteindre, en 2010, une intensité en r&d équivalente à 3 % du pib, dont deux tiers seraient financés par le secteur privé. Les efforts à réaliser devront être intenses, d'autant plus que l'écart absolu entre l'Europe et les Etats-Unis s’accroît au fil des années. En 2003, le gouvernement fédéral belge s'est également fixé l'objectif de porter les efforts du pays en matière de r&d, à 3 % du pib d'ici 2010.

STU 04-03 : Special Topic - Personal income tax reform and wage formation in Belgium

The latest update of the FPB’s medium-term outlook for Belgium is pointing towards GDP growth of 2.3% on average from 2004 to 2008. This development can be largely accounted for by domestic demand, whereas the role of (net) exports is expected to be more limited. After moderate growth in 2003, the evolution of private consumption should be more dynamic during the 2004-2008 period, particularly thanks to a favourable development in households’ disposable income (stimulated especially by reductions in personal income tax). The growth in gross fixed capital formation should reach an average of 2.9% during the period 2004-2008, notably reflecting the expansion in business investment. Export growth should be 5.1% on average, compared with growth of 5.6% in our potential export markets: the structural loss of export market share should be confirmed.

Inflation should be below 2% in the medium term, thanks to moderate wage increases compatible with productivity gains, cuts in social security contributions and the extension of production capacity. Employment is expected to show a gradual improvement: an average increase of 34,000 jobs should be seen during the 2004-2008 period. The unemployment rate in a broad sense should decrease from 14.2% by mid-2003 to 12.8% in 2008, a large proportion of the labour expansion being absorbed by growth in the labour force.

Given the present prospects for future economic growth, assuming no policy change but taking into account the most important measures decided within the framework of the 2004 budget, the financing capacity of public administrations should go into deficit in the medium term (0.5% of GDP in 2008). The goal of a positive financing capacity (0.3% of GDP in 2007) is not expected to be reached without additional budgetary measures. Nevertheless, the total public debt to GDP ratio should continue to fall, going down by about 17 percentage points between 2002 and 2008.