JEL classification

Macroeconomic and fiscal effects of the draft National Recovery and Resilience Plan - Report to the Secretary of State for Recovery and Strategic Investments [28/04/2021]

The National Recovery and Resilience Plan details the use of the €5.925 billion allocated under the Recovery and Resilience Facility. The major part (88%) of the Belgian plan is directly intended to increase the capital stock of the Belgian economy through public investment and aid to private investment. In the short term, at the peak of the plan's stimulus effect, economic activity would be 0.2% higher than in the non-plan scenario. Although the stimulus is temporary, it has long-term effects due to the increase in the public capital stock and the support for R&D activities that improve the profitability of the capital stock of firms and encourage its accumulation. By 2040, GDP is still projected to be 0.1% above non-plan growth path. This estimate does not take into account the reform component of the plan, nor the broader recovery, investment and reform plans announced by the Regions and the federal government, nor the effect of foreign plans on the Belgian economy.

Crise sanitaire et ses séquelles à moyen terme : pourquoi les finances de l’entité II s’en sortent-elles mieux que celles de l’entité I ?
Gezondheidscrisis en de naweeën ervan op middellange termijn: waarom hebben de financiën van Entiteit II die beter doorstaan dan die van Entiteit I? [14/07/2020]

Twenty years of policy for the sustainability of Belgian public finances - From a strategy of pre-funding the costs of ageing to a policy of reforms of the socio-economic model [28/02/2019]

The Ageing fund, which was set up in 2001 as an instrument to ensure the long-term sustainability of public finances, was abolished in 2016. Its abolition symbolises the transition from a strategy of pre-funding the budgetary cost of ageing, which dominated in the early 2000s, to a strategy based mainly on reforms to the socioeconomic model. The latter was initiated after the global financial crisis and has been firmly stepped up in recent years. This Planning Paper describes the economic and institutional factors behind the shift in sustainability policy, as well as the role of the various stakeholders: the governments of course, but also the High Council of Finance, the European authorities and the Federal Planning Bureau, which has produced  long-term analyses and assessments over the past 25 years that have both reflected and helped to shape the pursued policy.

Étude de l’impact d’une augmentation de l’assistance sociale: l’allocation de remplacement de revenus (ARR) et la garantie de revenus aux personnes âgées (GRAPA) - Étude réalisée à la demande de la secrétaire d’État à la Lutte contre la pauvreté
Impactberekening van een hogere bijstandsuitkering: de inkomensvervangende tegemoetkoming (IVT) en de inkomensgarantie voor ouderen (IGO) - Studie op vraag van de Staatssecretaris voor Armoedebestrijding [20/01/2016]

Étude de l’impact d’une augmentation du revenu d’intégration - Étude réalisée à la demande de la secrétaire d’État à la Lutte contre la pauvreté
Impactberekening van een verhoging van het leefloon - Studie op vraag van de Staatssecretaris voor Armoedebestrijding [20/09/2015]

This report presents the results of an impact assessment of an increase in the social integration allowance (assistance scheme). The study which was commissioned by the State Secretary responsible for poverty reduction consists of two parts, on the one hand, an assessment of the macroeconomic and budgetary effects, including the possible return effects, of the increase and, on the other hand, an estimate of its impact on the poverty risk.

A new version of the HERMES model - HERMES III [08/11/2013]

This Working Paper is aimed at describing the current version of Federal Planning Bureau’s medium-term macrosectoral model, named HERMES. This model is used to produce on a regular basis medium-term outlooks for the Belgian economy. In addition to the main macroeconomic aggregates (GDP, private consumption, external trade, investments,…), those outlooks also concern labour market aggregates, detailed public finances, energy  consumption and greenhouse gas emissions. The HERMES model is also used to compute the impact of policy measures and external shocks on the Belgian economy.

Révision du fédéralisme budgétaire belge : questions de politique de soutenabilité budgétaire et de politique budgétaire dans le cycle
Herziening van het Belgisch budgettair federalisme: vragen omtrent de budgettaire houdbaarheid en omtrent budgettair beleid en economische cyclus [24/11/2010]

Structure et évolution de l’emploi public belge [25/10/2010]

L’emploi public belge dans une perspective internationale [09/04/2009]