JEL classification

Macroeconomic and fiscal effects of the draft National Recovery and Resilience Plan - Report to the Secretary of State for Recovery and Strategic Investments [28/04/2021]

The National Recovery and Resilience Plan details the use of the €5.925 billion allocated under the Recovery and Resilience Facility. The major part (88%) of the Belgian plan is directly intended to increase the capital stock of the Belgian economy through public investment and aid to private investment. In the short term, at the peak of the plan's stimulus effect, economic activity would be 0.2% higher than in the non-plan scenario. Although the stimulus is temporary, it has long-term effects due to the increase in the public capital stock and the support for R&D activities that improve the profitability of the capital stock of firms and encourage its accumulation. By 2040, GDP is still projected to be 0.1% above non-plan growth path. This estimate does not take into account the reform component of the plan, nor the broader recovery, investment and reform plans announced by the Regions and the federal government, nor the effect of foreign plans on the Belgian economy.

Public Investment in Belgium - Current State and Economic Impact [26/01/2017]

Belgian government investment, and specifically the part spent on infrastructure, is relatively low both in historical terms and compared to neighbouring countries. A simulation with the European Commission’s Quest III model suggests that increasing government investment permanently by 0.5% of GDP leads to a growth in GDP, private consumption and private investment. The impact of alternative financing mechanisms is compared. Finally, a budget neutral shift of investment in favour of infrastructure is found to yield significant benefits in terms of GDP and its main components already in the medium run.

L’impact économique d’une hausse de la TVA sur les produits alimentaires et les boissons non alcoolisées
De economische impact van een btw-verhoging op voeding en op alcoholvrije dranken [30/09/2016]

La modélisation de l’impôt des personnes physiques dans les modèles macroéconomiques de court et moyen terme du BFP - Adaptation des modèles suite à la 6e réforme de l’État et au SEC2010 [24/03/2016]

Within the framework of the sixth state reform, part of the personal income tax has been regionalised. What’s more, in ESA2010, certain tax expenditures which were partly recorded as negative revenue in ESA95 are now recorded as general government expenditure. These changes motivate a revision of the personal income tax model which is used both for the short and medium term projections made by the FPB and for variant analyses. The new model makes a distinction between the "prepayment" tax (payroll tax and advance payments) and the "enrolment" tax (which fixes the amounts due under regional and local additional levies). It provides a better link to the macroeconomy and explicitly takes into account the schedule of tax enrolment.

Analyse macro-sectorielle des effets d’une hausse de la TVA [28/05/2014]

This study was commissioned by the Central Economic Council (CEC), and more particularly by the Special Advisory Commission ‘Construction’. It presents the sectoral results of a report that was produced in 2011 by the National Bank of Belgium and the Federal Planning Bureau. The federal government had asked both institutions to conduct a comprehensive study of a fiscal reform aiming at encouraging employment and supporting business competitiveness. As requested by the CEC, we comment here in detail the impact of a VAT increase without additional measures, on the one hand, and the impact of a VAT increase with transitional neutralization of the effect of that increase on the indexation. As regards the other measures examined, tables of results are annexed.

NIME Outlook for the World Economy 2013-2024 - Special topic: Fiscal consolidation and euro area growth perspectives [26/12/2013]

This new outlook for the world economy is based on the Belgian Federal Planning Bureau’s NIME model and covers the period 2013-2024. The projection indicates that there should be a limited growth rebound over the period 2013-2016. Over this period, economic growth should allow a closing of the euro area’s output gap, even though world economic growth should continue to be driven mainly by countries other than those of the EU, the United States and Japan. In the longer run, world growth should decline due to a general slowdown in productivity growth, but also due to unfavourable demographic trends.

It should be noted that these 2013-2024 projections for the world economy do not serve as input for the Federal Planning Bureau’s short-term forecasts and medium-term projections for Belgium. Indeed, these latter rely on various ad hoc methodologies and integrate international forecasts from institutions such as the EU Commission, the OECD and the IMF.

Hausse de la fiscalité sur l’énergie et baisse d’autres formes de prélèvement : résultats macroéconomiques [13/11/2009]

This study is devoted to the analysis of the main effects, on the Belgian economy, of various forms of tax shifting aimed at increasing taxes on energy and decreasing other taxes
(mainly taxes on labour). Results show that, if the increase in energy taxes is combined with a reduction of taxes on labour, a double dividend (rise in employment and decrease in energy consumption and CO2 emissions) can be obtained.

Nime Policy Brief - Fiscal Stabilisation Plans and the Outlook for the World Economy [20/04/2009]

Since August 2007, the world economy has fallen into recession and has been confronted with a severe financial crisis. In the context of what is now a world-wide recession, what hope can we place in announced fiscal stimulus plans? Will the fiscal stimulus plans decided and implemented in both the euro area and the United States since end 2008 be adequate responses, most notably in the face of the current systemic financial crisis? This document provides an evaluation of the effectiveness of fiscal policy and of current stimulus plans. It indicates that, while the fiscal stimulus measures will undoubtedly prove to be useful in limiting the scale and duration of the downturn, they won’t be sufficient by themselves to prevent a lengthy recession followed by a tepid recovery. In order to maximise the effectiveness of the stimulus plans, these should be accompanied by accommodative monetary policy. Furthermore, in view of accelerating and underpinning a recovery in world-wide economic activity, fiscal and monetary policies will also have to be supplemented by measures aimed at re-establishing properly functioning banking and financial sectors.

Une nouvelle version du modèle HERMES
Een nieuwe versie van het HERMES-model [15/02/2004]

Effets économiques de diverses modalités d’accroissement des taxes sur l’énergie en Belgique
De economische effecten van diverse modaliteiten van energieheffingen in België [15/05/2003]

An Evaluation of Fiscal Measures for Energy Products in the European Union [15/10/1998]