JEL classification

Poverty risks and income inequality up to 2070. Projections of the revised dynamic microsimulation model MIDAS 2.0 [25/05/2023]

For the projection of social sustainability indicators, the Federal Planning Bureau uses the dynamic microsimulation model MIDAS, which has recently undergone a major revision. In this working paper we report a projection up to 2070 of poverty risks and income inequality among the elderly, pensioners and the population under 65 years, in a scenario with current pension policies and projected demographic and socio-economic evolutions.

MIDAS 2.0. Revision of a dynamic microsimulation model [24/01/2023]

MIDAS, the dynamic microsimulation model that focuses on the social sustainability of pensions, has undergone a major revision in recent years to improve the validity of the projections. This Working Paper not only reports on this revision, but also describes some important new modules.

Regional child benefit reforms – An impact analysis with the microsimulation model EXPEDITION [18/05/2021]

This Working Paper puts the policy choices made in the regional child benefit reforms into perspective. Using the microsimulation model EXPEDITION, the expected direct effects of these reforms on child benefit expenditure and income distribution are mapped out. Special attention is paid to the effects on the simulated poverty risk of (families with) children, as this was a shared concern during the reforms in the different regions.

Étude de l’impact d’une augmentation de l’assistance sociale: l’allocation de remplacement de revenus (ARR) et la garantie de revenus aux personnes âgées (GRAPA) - Étude réalisée à la demande de la secrétaire d’État à la Lutte contre la pauvreté
Impactberekening van een hogere bijstandsuitkering: de inkomensvervangende tegemoetkoming (IVT) en de inkomensgarantie voor ouderen (IGO) - Studie op vraag van de Staatssecretaris voor Armoedebestrijding [20/01/2016]

Étude de l’impact d’une augmentation du revenu d’intégration - Étude réalisée à la demande de la secrétaire d’État à la Lutte contre la pauvreté
Impactberekening van een verhoging van het leefloon - Studie op vraag van de Staatssecretaris voor Armoedebestrijding [20/09/2015]

This report presents the results of an impact assessment of an increase in the social integration allowance (assistance scheme). The study which was commissioned by the State Secretary responsible for poverty reduction consists of two parts, on the one hand, an assessment of the macroeconomic and budgetary effects, including the possible return effects, of the increase and, on the other hand, an estimate of its impact on the poverty risk.

Adéquation des pensions et coût budgétaire du vieillissement: impacts de réformes et de scénarios alternatifs
Toereikendheid van het pensioen en budgettaire kosten van de vergrijzing: evaluatie van beleidsmaatregelen en van alternatieve scenario’s [30/12/2010]

The long-term adequacy of the Belgian public pension system: An analysis based on the MIDAS model [03/05/2010]

This working paper describes the second version of MIDAS (an acronym for ‘Microsimulation for the Development of Adequacy and Sustainability’), a dynamic population model with dynamic cross-sectional ageing. This model simulates the life spans of individuals in the base dataset, including with their interactions, for the years between 2003 and 2060. It enables to produce, on that period, adequacy assessment of pensions in Belgium that is coherent with the baseline budgetary projections of the 2009 report of the Study Committee for Ageing realized by the Federal Planning Bureau’s semi-aggregated MALTESE model. Indeed, MIDAS aligns its socio-economic and demographic projections and its macro-economic assumptions on the 2009 report of the Study Committee for Ageing. The adequacy of pensions is analysed through the replacement ratio, inequality measures among pensioners and poverty risk indicators of the elderly.

What are the consequences of the AWG-projections for the adequacy of social security pensions ? An application of the dynamic micro simulation model MIDAS for Belgium, Italy and Germany [30/09/2008]

In the context of a European-funded sixth framework project called AIM, a dynamic microsimulation model MIDAS is being developed for Belgium, Germany and Italy. This is a joint effort by three institutions, the German DIW, the Italian ISAE and the Belgian FPB. This model MIDAS simulates future developments of the adequacy of pensions, following wherever possible the projections and assumptions of the Ageing Working Group.  This paper describes the model MIDAS in detail. It next presents and discusses some simulation results for Belgium, Germany and Italy. Finally, the simulation results of two alternative policy scenarios are presented and discussed.