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In the framework of the election costing exercise the impact on the distribution of disposable income is measured for a number of measures proposed by political parties. Administrative micro-data are used for this exercise. This approach allows that the impact of the measures studied is reported at the level of individual or household characteristics. The policy measures whose impact on the distribution of disposable income is calculated are measures situated within the domain of social security and social assistance, supplemented by the regulations on family allowances, the contribution rules applied to these benefits and the rules on personal income tax. The tool used for these calculations is the microsimulation model EXPEDITION. The present paper describes the main features of the EXPEDITION model and illustrates its operation on the basis of two simulations.
In the context of the election programme costing exercise, the Federal Planning Bureau is anticipating proposals from political parties for the introduction of a top wealth tax. The purpose of this document is to explain the estimation method for its budgetary impulse. To do so, we use data from the Belgian National Bank's Household Financial Behaviour Survey. We develop the calculation method for estimating revenues with or without the potential behavioural responses of taxpayers. To include potential behavioural responses, we investigate two approaches, namely the bunching method and the inclusion of net wealth elasticities estimated abroad. Based on the results, we will preserve only the second method for the DC2024 costing. Furthermore, this paper reviews the literature on the macroeconomic effects of the top wealth tax - literature relevant to understand the inclusion of the tax in the HERMES and QUEST models.
The idea of a top wealth tax has regained interest in Belgium, as opposed to the international trend in the last decades. While twelve OECD countries implemented it in 1990, only three still do since 2018. Such a tax raises questions. For the account of the Federal Planning Bureau, the ULB studied a top wealth tax to define its scope and understand the stakes at play.
Federal Planning Bureau
