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The Federal Planning Bureau's econometric model HERMES will be used to calculate the macroeconomic and budgetary impact of each political party's set of priority measures over the next legislature. This working paper summarises the characteristics of the model and describes its structure and main transmission mechanisms. It then illustrates the functioning of the model using several economic policy variants. Finally, this working paper describes the procedure for constructing the reference scenario and presents the main results of the June 2023 economic outlook. Those forecasts constitute the prefiguration of the reference scenario which will be published in February 2024, covering the period 2024-2029.
As part of the 2024 costing of electoral platforms, the QUEST III R&D dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model will be used to simulate the long-term effects of structural and (para-)fiscal measures proposed by the political parties. This paper summarises the characteristics of the model, presents its structure and the main transmission mechanisms and constraints. The functioning of the model is then illustrated through five stylised structural and (para-)fiscal reforms.
This report presents the results of the June version of the "Economic Outlook 2023-2028". It describes the international context and the outlook for Belgian economic growth, inflation, energy consumption, greenhouse gas emissions, the labour market and public finances. The Outlook is based on information available on 6 June 2023.
This Paper describes how the multiregional bottom-up HERMREG model works, using five (regional or federal) economic policy variants and a world demand shock.
This working paper analyses the economic impact of a regulated professional services reform in Belgium through simulations based on the European Commission’s DSGE model QUEST III R&D
This report presents a brief disaggregation of the budget balance of the sub-sector “communities and regions” that was published in the March 2018 “2018-2023 Economic Outlook”. The budget balances of the Flemish Community, the French-speaking Community, the Walloon Region and the Brussels-Capital Region are presented.
This report constitutes a contribution to the preparation of the new Stability Programme and the new National Reform Programme. It includes the main results of the preliminary version of the “2018-2023 Economic Outlook” to be published in June 2018.
This report is an input to the preparation of the new Stability Programme and of the new National Reform Programme (NRP). It presents the assumptions and the main results of the preliminary version of the “Economic Outlook 2017-2022”. The final version of the outlook will be published in June 2017.
This report is an input to the preparation of the new Stability Programme and of the new National Reform Programme. It presents the key assumptions and the main results of the preliminary version of the “Economic Outlook 2016-2021”. The final version of the outlook will be published in May 2016.
Compilation of the different presentations held at the presentation of the “Medium-term economic outlook 2014-2019” at the Central Economic Council on 25 June 2014.
The Federal Planning Bureau’s new outlook for the world economy presents projection results for the main economic areas of the world over the period 2012-2020. The projection assumes a stable institutional framework in the European Union and the absence of any balance sheet consolidation that would be severe enough to have lasting effects on GDP growth rates. In such a framework, the projection for the euro area indicates that moderate growth in final domestic demand and positive real net exports should generate moderate real GDP growth over the period 2012-2020. Output growth should be strong enough to outpace the rise in potential output, thus closing the area’s output gap by 2017. The closing of the output gap would be accompanied by a decline in the area’s unemployment rate, which should fall back to its pre-crisis level. At the same time, consumer price inflation should pick up, reaching by 2020 a level compatible with the European Central Bank’s inflation target. The budgetary consolidation measures that are assumed in the projection should lead to primary surpluses that would allow for a decline in the area’s gross public sector debt-to-GDP ratio.
At the time of writing, and although certain segments of financial markets do not yet seem to have returned to their normal, pre‐global financial crisis, functioning, it appears that the wide‐spread and massive policy initiatives of the past year have managed to avert any systemic financial meltdown and limit the depth of the world‐wide recession. Indeed, monetary policy, financial policy, the fiscal stimulus plans that began to be implemented in 2009 and the simultaneous boost from countries’ automatic fiscal stabilisers, all managed to limit the scale of the downturn in real GDP and employment levels. The downturn is also thought to have been limited in OECD countries due to the unexpected resilience of GDP growth in emerging market economies such as China, Brazil and India, who helped to prop up OECD activity by helping to contain the decline in world trade.
In early 2010, policy has remained supportive on all fronts, fiscal, monetary and financial. However, with respect to fiscal policy in particular, after the massive public interventions of 2009, the time has come to look at the effects that these initiatives have had, both in terms of their support to the economy, but also in terms of their effects on countries’ budget deficits and debts and the exit strategies. A difficult balance must be struck between the necessary continued public support for the economy as long as output gaps and unemployment rates remain high, and the medium‐run adjustments to public deficit and debt trajectories.
The current scenario is one where governments withdraw public support from the economy gradually without compromising the recovery. Over the medium term, public deficits do not explode. Real GDP growth picks up as the private sector begins to drive the recovery. In the euro area, we see the emergence of structural current account surpluses. In the United States, there is low inflation and a rebalancing of the current account deficit. In Japan, unfavourable demographic trends lead to low GDP growth; furthermore, the country is projected to continue down a path of deflation throughout the projection period.
This study discusses the possible effects of the Football World Cup in 2018 on economic expenditures. These expenditures mainly concern investments in stadiums and tourist spending by visitors. However, visiting teams, the media and organisational and security spending also generate effects. Total expenditure is estimated at €1.15 billion, spread over an eight - year period, with a large confidence interval. The effects of those expenditures on economic activity were calculated using two economic models: an input - output model and the macroeconomic model, HERMES . The effect on GDP should amount to approximately 0.13% in 2018. Employment should increase by roughly 450 to 750 jobs during the run - up to the tournament and by an equivalent of 4 000 to 8 000 man - years in the course of the tournament itself.
This study is devoted to the analysis of the main effects, on the Belgian economy, of various forms of tax shifting aimed at increasing taxes on energy and decreasing other taxes (mainly taxes on labour). Results show that, if the increase in energy taxes is combined with a reduction of taxes on labour, a double dividend (rise in employment and decrease in energy consumption and CO2 emissions) can be obtained.
This August 2007 issue of the NIME Outlook for the World Economy presents a 2007-2013 macroeconomic projection for the major areas of the world. The outlook was produced using NIME, the Belgian Federal Planning Bureau’s macroeconometric world model. This issue includes a number of essential stochastic results relative to our new outlook, as well as an assessment of other less easily quantifiable risks that are currently seen to weigh on the outlook. The major technical assumptions behind the outlook and a brief description of the NIME model are presented in the appendix.
The January 2007 issue of the NIME Outlook for the World Economy presents a 2007-2013 macroeconomic projection for the major areas of the world. The outlook was produced using NIME, the Belgian Federal Planning Bureau’s macroeconometric world model. This issue also includes a number of essential stochastic results concerning the new world economic outlook. The major technical assumptions behind the outlook as well as a brief description of the NIME model are presented in the appendix.
Over the 1995-2004 period, the evolution of stock market indices in the United States and Europe exhibited a distinct boom-and-bust pattern, rising dramatically during the second half of the 1990s and falling sharply at the turn of the century. These changes in asset prices affected household wealth and the financing cost of investments, so that the period of rising asset prices was also characterised by strong economic growth, while the period of falling asset prices saw weaker growth. As equity markets were largely driven by "irrational exuberance" in the second half of the 1990s, it is sometimes argued that, in order to foster a more balanced growth path, the monetary authorities in the United States and the euro area should have targeted changes in a price index which not only includes contemporaneous consumer prices but also asset prices.
In this Working Paper we assess the worldwide macroeconomic implications of an interest rate rule whereby the major central banks of the world target not only changes in the traditional consumer price index but also changes in asset prices. We do this by simulating the nime model over the 1995-2004 period with an interest rate rule similar to the well-known Taylor rule, but augmented for changes in asset prices.
This Working Paper presents a medium-term macroeconomic outlook for the major economic areas of the world. The outlook was prepared using nime, the Belgian Federal Planning Bureau’s (fpb) macroeconometric world model. The Working Paper also features an assessment of the euro area’s progress towards the European Union’s Lisbon goals for growth and employment, a brief description of the nime model and an appendix outlining the major technical assumptions of this outlook.
This Working Paper presents a medium-term macro-economic outlook for the major economic areas of the world. The outlook is produced using nime, the Belgian Federal Planning Bureau’s macro-econometric world model. The Working Paper also features an assessment of the effects of a permanent 25 percent increase in the price of oil, a description of the nime model, and an appendix outlining the major technical assumptions of the outlook.
Federal Planning Bureau
