Page Title

Publications

To promote transparency and provide information, the Federal Planning Bureau regularly publishes the methods and results of its works. The publications are organised in different series, such as Outlooks, Working Papers and Planning Papers. Some reports can be consulted here, along with the Short Term Update newsletters that were published until 2015. You can search our publications by theme, publication type, author and year.

Documents (1104)

1999

  • STU 03-99 : Special Topic - Determinants of Belgium’s export performance 15/07/1999

    In contrast with strong global economic growth in 1998, Belgian exports declined substantially during the third and fourth quarter, as the crisis in South-East Asia and in some other emerging economies progressively affected intra-European trade. Even given a scenario of fairly strong Belgian export recovery during the second half of the current year, the low level reached in the first quarter of 1999 implies a low annual growth rate for exports in 1999.

    Employment creation should remain significant in 1999 (about 1.1%); domestic demand (2.1%) should keep driving economic growth, although at a much slower pace than in 1998. The implications of the dioxin crisis remain largely uncertain. Assuming that most detrimental effects would progressively disappear after three months, it should reduce exports in 1999 by 0.3% and GDP by 0.2%. In this scenario, GDP growth in 1999 should be 1.7%; net exports contribution to GDP growth would be negative by 0.2%.

    Economic growth in 2000 should attain 2.5% and be supported by better export performance (5.1%): the depreciation of the Euro in 1999 should increase the competitiveness of the Euro-zone, boosting our main export markets. Belgian exports should also take advantage from the decrease in employer's contributions to social security, and from a moderate recovery in our agricultural and agro-industrial exports.

    Private consumption growth (1.8%) should remain moderate as no further impulse is expected from households' savings. Business gross capital formation should remain weak. Profits and related revenues should suffer from, among others, the deterioration in the terms of trade due to higher energy prices and the depreciation in the BEF effective exchange rate during the first half of 1999, as well as from the financial consequences of the dioxin crisis.

    The pace of economic growth, the different measures limiting wage increases, and the active labour market policy measures should allow employment to keep growing in 2000 (1.0%). Inflation should remain subdued at 1.3%.

    Closed series - Short Term Update 03-99  Publication(en),

  • STU 02-99 : Special Topic - The FPB macroeconomic leading indicators 20/05/1999

    Sustained economic growth in Belgium in 1998 was supported by rapidly growing private consumption and investment. In contrast, the contribution of trade to real economic growth was negative in 1998. Nevertheless, a strong increase in terms of trade, due to the low prices of raw materials, allowed trade still to make a positive contribution towards growth in nominal terms.

    Export performance remains the key question for 1999: the deterioration of our export markets led to negative growth in Belgian exports in 1998Q4 (t/t-4) and the timing and strength of a recovery remain uncertain. International organisations are forecasting a clear upturn in world trade in mid-1999. On the basis of this scenario, the FPB is forecasting economic growth in Belgium of 2% in 1999.

    So far, however, leading indicators suggest that the upturn in exports in 1999 could be weaker than expected. The Balkan crisis is also having a negative impact on growth prospects. On the other hand, the recent fall in interest and exchange rates in the euro area does improve prospects for 1999.

    Domestic demand is not expected to be as buoyant as in 1998, and it should continue to drive growth in 1999. With a 1% increase in employment, consumer confidence will remain high: private consumption growth should be around 2%. Inflation remains at around 1%. The general government borrowing requirement should be less than 1% of GDP, due to the low level of interest rates.

    The medium-term outlook for Belgium points to an average growth rate of GDP of 2.5% per year during the 2000-2004 period in an “unchanged policy” scenario. Gross nominal wages are expected to be broadly in line with nominal labour costs in the neighbouring countries. Planned cuts in non-wage costs should therefore lead to enhanced competitiveness. Nonetheless, the slightly accelerated pace of inflation in Europe should cause domestic inflation to rise to 1.6%. The average rate of growth of employment, strongly supported by active labour market policy measures, is estimated at around 0.9% per year in average, leading to a drop in unemployment.

    Based on this scenario, the general government financing capacity should become positive from 2001 onward. The “budgetary margins”, which will cumulatively reach 1.7% of GDP in 2004, will probably be used to decrease the tax burden or/and increase expenditure: this “changed policy” scenario implies stronger macroeconomic performance than the “unchanged policy” scenario.

    Closed series - Short Term Update 02-99  Publication(en),

  • STU 01-99 : Special Topic - A sustainable development approach to climate change: why and how? 03/01/1999

    During the past few months, the signals concerning the development of the economy have been mixed. There are three indicators worth mentioning on the negative side. Growth in world trade, and in particular intra-European trade, has slowed. Partly in connection with this, it is estimated that Belgian exports have actually fallen in the second half of 1998, compared to the first half of the year. Thirdly, industrial confidence has continued to decline.

    On the positive side there are four factors worth noting. Unemployment has continued to decline for the sixth consecutive quarter. Consumer confidence remains high and has even improved during the last few months. Thirdly, real interest rates have continued to fall and finally the government deficit fell sharply in 1998.

    There are some fragile indications that the slowdown in the economy will only be temporary and that activity may soon resume its upward trend. Nevertheless, in terms of annual averages, 1999 should show a weakening in GDP growth, which is estimated to be 2%.

    The upturn should be most visible in exports. Year-on-year growth rates for exports and private consumption should be relatively low at the beginning of the year and gradually improve thereafter.

    Inflationary pressures should be absent. Underlying inflation will continue to hover around 1.4%, while oil prices should, on average, be lower than in 1998, leading to consumer price inflation of 1%, which is the same growth rate as in 1998. The health index should rise by 1.2%.

    The labour market was particularly vigorous in 1998, with 54,000 more people in work (from June to June). In the second half of 1998 and into 1999, job creation is expected to be less dynamic. The June-to- June change for 1999 should be 33,000. The standardized unemployment rate should continue to fall, from 8.6% in 1998 to 8.2% this year.

    In the area of public finances, the net borrowing requirement should be around 1.3% of GDP in 1998 and decline further in 1999. The primary surplus is expected to be above 6% in 1998 and 1999.

    Closed series - Short Term Update 01-99  Publication(en),

1998

  • STU 04-98 : Special Topic - The accuracy of the FPB short-term economic forecasts since 1994 24/11/1998

    The FPB is reassessing the state of the economy in 1998 and its possible evolution for 1999.

    In 1998 the Belgian economy has continued to grow strongly and has moved into a “mature” phase of recovery with exports and investment no longer providing the engine for growth. Private consumption, fed mainly by employment growth, moderate real wage increases and high consumer confidence, took over their role. Employment growth remains impressive.

    The outlook for the world economy for 1999 has deteriorated: the Asian crisis has widened and deepened and contagion effects have started to affect also Russia, Latin American countries and, to a lesser extent, Eastern Europe. World financial markets have shown extreme volatility. Continental European countries will be affected by the deterioration of the global economic performance and the weakening of the USD, but should nevertheless become the fastest growing area in the world.

    Any forecast concerning Belgium is fragile in this context but it seems likely that the GDP-growth forecast for 1999 given in July (2.6%) is too optimistic. The Belgian economy might not be growing faster than 2.2% with significant downward risks on the domestic and international side.

    Many uncertainties and downward risks regarding the international environment are linked, and, given the interdependencies in the global economy could trigger all the others and lead to a sharp deterioration in the overall economic situation.

    Export growth should be significantly lower than in 1998 while private consumption should be less affected. Employment should still increase by 0.8% and the unemployment rate should further fall from 8.6% to 8.3% (Eurostat standardised definition).

    In any case, consumption price inflation remains subdued at about 0.9% (1% for the “health” index). Wage increases will remain moderate, under the influence of the “wage norm”. Interest rates in Belgium drop in line with international rates. This should be a positive factor for domestic demand.

    Closed series - Short Term Update 04-98  Publication(en),

  • STU 03-98 : Special Topic - Declining replacement rates in the legal pension scheme for wage-earners 16/07/1998

    Belgian GDP grew by 2.9% in 1997. GDP growth should hardly be reduced this and next year: the FPB expects a growth rate of 2.8% in 1998 and 2.6% in 1999.

    So far, the FPB expected the negative impact of the Asian crisis to be neutralised by a more dynamic domestic demand. While exports do actually slow down, it seems that domestic demand more than compensates for this.

    The good figures for domestic demand in 1998 concern mainly private consumption. They are influenced by the concentrated purchases of cars after the biannual Motor Show but also by a number of other special factors positively affecting household disposable income. These will not be present in 1999 so that smaller growth rates for real disposable income as well as private consumption are expected.

    Employment creation should contribute substantially to the income growth of households during 1998 and 1999. For both years, employment should increase by about 45,000 people (or about 1.2%), which is considerable compared to the past seven years.

    About a quarter of the job creation can be attributed to special programmes, which are mainly taking place in enterprises. Moreover, wage moderation, as well as further cuts in employers’ contributions to social security contribute to a more labour-intensive growth and an improvement of competitiveness.

    The business investment rate should continue to climb, but remains relatively low compared to the end of the 80's.

    The wage evolution in 1999 remains dependent on the “Wage norm”. Wage moderation in the neighbouring countries constraints the wage evolution in Belgium. Gross hourly wages in the private sector are expected to increase by 1.2% in real terms in 1999. The risk of wage inflation is therefore limited, even though labour market shortages could emerge.

    Somewhat stronger import price increases and a slightly positive output gap lead to a small rise in the inflation rates in 1999 (1.3%, compared to 1.1% in 1998). Interest rates should also slightly increase in the Euro zone as well as in Belgium.

    Closed series - Short Term Update 03-98  Publication(en),

First page Previous page  40 of 45  Next page Last page
Please do not visit, its a trap for bots