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Publications
Dans un souci de transparence et d’information, le BFP publie régulièrement les méthodes et résultats de ses travaux. Les publications sont organisées en séries, entre autres, les perspectives, les working papers et planning papers. Certains rapports peuvent également être consultés ici, de même que les bulletins du Short Term Update publiés jusqu’en 2015. Une recherche par thématique, type de publication, auteur et année vous est proposée.
Autres publications - Euren Summer Report (en),
Un des faits marquants des évolutions économiques de la décennie nonante est la divergence de croissance entre pays industrialisés, divergence qui renverse la tendance à la convergence observée au cours des décennies précédentes. En particulier, les Etats-Unis ont enregistré une période longue de croissance créatrice d’emplois sans pression inflatoire alors que durant la même période, l’économie européenne connaissait une croissance ni aussi longue ni aussi forte. Parmi les explications avancées, l’évolution contrastée des gains de productivité de part et d’autre de l’Atlantique figure souvent en bonne place.
Autres publications - IT 01-2003 (fr), (nl),
In the empirical literature, the missing link between ict investments and increa-ses in firm performance is organisational change. This paper aims to assess the impact of ict at firm-level in Belgium, by means of case studies with 220 firms in four sectors: banking, machinery, printing/publishing and transport. The chosen sectors were ict-intensive in 1995, have enjoyed productivity growth during the 1995-2000 period and were probably ready for reorganisation at the time of the interviews.
Working Papers - Working Paper 08-03 (en),
Economic activity remained subdued in the euro area in the last quarter of 2002 and early estimates point to a stabilisation in the first quarter of the current year. International organizations are forecasting a gradual but only modest recovery in the course of 2003. In Belgium, GDP growth was higher than in the main neighbouring countries in the last quarter of 2002. This should also be the case in the first quarter of 2003. The FPB leading indicator for Belgium confirms the scenario of a recovery during the course of 2003. Annual GDP growth should nevertheless be only slightly above 1% this year.
Various risks could jeopardise the recovery in the euro zone: the continuing depreciation of the USD, and a slower recovery of confidence due to the situation in the labour market and/or the stock market. The medium-term outlook for Belgium is pointing towards a GDP growth rate of 2.4% during the 2004-08 period, which is slightly higher than potential (2.1%).This favourable development is due to both net exports and domestic demand. Private consumption should become more dynamic during the 2004-2008 period, particularly thanks to the increase in households’ disposable income (especially due to tax reform). Investment growth should attain 3% during the 2004-08 period, mainly reflecting the increase in business investment. Average export growth should be 5.3% during the same period and the contribution of net exports to GDP growth should be 0.3%. Thanks to limited wage and import cost increases and a negative output gap in the first years of the projection, the inflation rate will remain below 2% in the medium term.
The development of employment should reflect the favourable macroeconomic context, the limited increases in wage costs and various policy measures. After stagnating in 2003, about 32,000 jobs should be created every year during the 2004-2008 period (as compared with 43,000 jobs created on average during 1996-2002). Industrial employment should fall by 38,000 persons during the 2003-2008 period and the number of jobs created in market services should exceed 200,000. The unemployment rate (including long term unemployment of older workers) is still increasing in 2003 (from 13.3% to 14.0%), but will subsequently fall to 12.9% in 2008. The proportion of active job seekers within broad unemployment will increase, due to recent policy measures aimed at limiting early retirement.
The public accounts are expected to show a clear deterioration, with a net public administrations borrowing requirement appearing in 2003. Equilibrium is not expected to be reached until the end of the period covered by the forecast.
Séries clôturées - Short Term Update 02-03 (en),
Autres publications - Report 01-03 (fr), (nl),
Prévisions & perspectives - Economic outlook 2003-2008 (fr), (nl),
L’analyse présentée dans ce papier s’inscrit dans le cadre de la loi du 29 avril 1999 relative à l’organisation du marché de l’électricité. Selon l’article 3, §1 de cette loi, le Bureau fédéral du Plan est consulté par la Commission de Régulation de l’Electricité et du Gaz (creg) en vue de l’établissement par cette dernière du programme indicatif des moyens de production d’électricité. Dans ce contexte, et profitant de ses travaux sur les perspectives énergétiques de long terme pour la Belgique, le Bureau fédéral du Plan a mené à bien une analyse comparative de projections de la demande d’électricité issues d’études réalisées entre l’automne 1999 et l’été 2001. Cette analyse a été complétée par des informations obtenues auprès des principales fédérations industrielles belges et transmise à la creg à l’automne 2001. Fin 2001, l’analyse a été enrichie par de nouvelles projections provenant de l’étude du Bureau fédéral du Plan sur l’évaluation de l’impact des mesures fiscales et non fiscales sur les émissions de co2.
Working Papers - Working Paper 07-03 (fr),
Since 1994 the Federal Planning Bureau has been using the annual version of the econometric model modtrim as a central tool to produce its short-term macroeconomic forecasts. At the origin of the project, and as its name indicates, this annual version was meant to be short-lived and quickly replaced by a quarterly version. Unfortunately, the lack of quarterly national accounts prevented from doing so for several years. In 1998, the Institute for National Accounts published official quarterly accounts for the first time and the construction of the quarterly version of the model started in Spring 2000. On that occasion, the opportunity was taken to reassess all behavioural equations of the model. The more limited availability of quarterly data, in comparison with annual data, implied that a more aggregated version of the accounting framework of the yearly model had to be constructed.
Working Papers - Working Paper 06-03 (en),
Cette étude a pour objet de présenter les principaux effets, pour l’économie belge, de majorations des taxes sur l’énergie. Cette analyse en variantes est destinée à répondre à une demande du Conseil des ministres du 14 juin 2002 (dossier introduit par le ministre de la Mobilité et des Transports et le secrétaire d’Etat à l’Energie). Selon cette demande, quatre groupes de scénarios doivent être simulés.
Working Papers - Working Paper 05-03 (fr), (nl),
Prévisions & perspectives - Economic Forecasts 2003 C
In the first half of 2002 the world economy seemed to recover from the sharp decline during 2001. This recovery was not, however, confirmed during the second half of the year.
In this muddled international business climate, the recovery of the Belgian economy is postponed until the second half of 2003. In annual average terms, GDP should grow this year by 1.3%. For the first two quarters of this year, positive but very modest GDP growth is assumed. Growth should be higher during the second half of the year, but clearly not as high as seen in previous economic recoveries in 1996 and 1999. Under these circumstances, the employment rate should fall for the second consecutive year, thus scoring 0.6 points lower than its previous peak in 2001. Consumer price inflation should remain rather stable at around 1.4%.
As economic agents are at present spellbound by the growing threat of a war in the Middle East, and the outcome of that conflict situation is hard to predict, the uncertainty margin surrounding the international economic context, is of course extremely high.
Séries clôturées - Short Term Update 01-03 (en),
This paper describes the compilation of the use tables for imports of goods and for trade margins for Belgium in 1995. It introduces a methodological novelty by integrating the compilation of both tables and systematically exploiting the fact that large parts of intermediary consumption and investment (i.e. those directly imported by the using firms) as well as exports (the direct exports by producers) bear no trade margins.
In order to do this we used intrastat and extrastat data on imports and exports of goods in 1995. The results of this approach differ significantly from those of a proportional distribution of imports and margins. Many statistical offices resort to this proportional distribution because of a lack of survey data on the destination of trade margins and imports. In Belgium the proportional approach is less appropriate because the product detail is too limited and the national account data are firm-based without distinguishing local kind of activities.
Working Papers - Working Paper 04-03 (en),
Working Papers - Working Paper 02-03 (nl),
Le deuxième Rapport fédéral sur le développement durable reprend la question posée en 1999 dans le premier Rapport: "la Belgique est-elle sur la voie d’un développement durable?". Ce Rapport y répond pour la période 1998-2001 en examinant plus précisément dix questions ou problématiques de développement. Il concrétise ainsi la notion de développement durable. Ces dix questions portent non seulement sur des problèmes à résoudre mais aussi sur des opportunités à saisir pour réaliser un développement durable. Est-il, par exemple, possible de continuer à pêcher tout en préservant la diversité biologique ? Comment faire en sorte que l’accès aux technologies de l’information et de la communication aide les gens à sortir d’une situation de pauvreté ? Les stratégies de production des entreprises peuvent-elles améliorer simultanément leurs performances sociales, environnementales et économiques ? Le Rapport montre l’intérêt de l’approche du développement durable pour traiter de telles questions en faisant intervenir simultanément plusieurs disciplines scientifiques (sciences de la nature, sociologie, économie…). Il peut aider les décideurs, que ce soit ceux de la société civile ou du monde politique, à élaborer des réponses à ces défis.
Rapports - Sustainable development Report 2002 (fr), (nl),
Rapports - Sustainable development Report Summary 2002 (de), (en), (fr), (nl),
Rapports - Sustainable development Report 2002 - Folder (fr), (nl),
Rapports - Sustainable development Report 2002 - CD Rom
Autres publications - Input-Output Table 1995 (fr), (nl),
Network industries are industries whose activity involves conveying people, products or information from one place to the other via some kind of physical network. They include transport networks, information networks and utility networks. Network industries basically consist of three types of activity: upstream activities involving the production of core products such as equipment and means of transport; infrastructure activities involving the construction, maintenance and operation of the physical network; downstream activities involving the delivery of network services to final consumers. Network industries have specific characteristics from an economic point of view. Three of these are particularly notable, the last one also from a social perspective.
Working Papers - Working Paper 01-03 (en),
This overview of the literature dedicated to the new economic geography intends to highlight the main mechanisms, which contribute to explain the spatial concentration of economic activity, in particular the formation of cities and industrial districts. This should provide some guidelines for an empirical analysis of the determinants of the spatial distribution of economic activity in urban areas in Belgium and for suggestions of economic policy instruments capable of influencing location choices.
Working Papers - Working Paper 16-02 (en),
Working Papers - Working Paper 15-02 (nl),
The aim of this working paper is to carry out a descriptive analysis of the geographical concentration of the manufacturing sector in Belgium, from which geographical agglomeration of sectors of activity is analyzed at a fine industrial level, i.e. NACEBEL 4-digit industries.
Working Papers - Working Paper 14-02 (en),
Autres publications - Euren Autumn Report (en),
Autres publications - City 01-2002 (fr), (nl),
Working Papers - Working Paper 13-02 (nl),
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