Page Title

Publications

To promote transparency and provide information, the Federal Planning Bureau regularly publishes the methods and results of its works. The publications are organised in different series, such as Outlooks, Working Papers and Planning Papers. Some reports can be consulted here, along with the Short Term Update newsletters that were published until 2015. You can search our publications by theme, publication type, author and year.

Documents (1104)

2008

  • Growth and Productivity in Belgium 29/09/2008

    The objective of the report is to provide an overview of the main drivers of economic growth and the productivity evolution in Belgium, in comparison with the EU and the US, between 1970 and 2005, based on a consistent data set. The growth accounting methodology is applied to explain value added and labour productivity growth for the total economy, manufacturing and market services. This decomposition exercise diverges from what has been applied in Belgium up to now, as it uses capital services flows rather than the capital stock and labour services flows rather than the number of hours worked to measure the contribution of these factors of production to economic and productivity growth. Contributions of the main industries to value added, employment and productivity growth are also estimated.

    Working Papers - Working Paper 17-08  Publication(en),

  • The NIME Outlook for the World Economy - Medium-Term Prospects for the World Economy - Period 2008-2015 17/09/2008

    The Belgian Federal Planning Bureau presents a new world macroeconometric projection for 2008-2015 in "The NIME Outlook for the World Economy" of August 2008. The document also contains an analytical Focus featuring the US housing market crisis.

    The scenario that is presented in this new world outlook was built on the basis of information available through mid-August 2008. The international economic environment underlying the Federal Planning Bureau's new Economic Forecasts for Belgium of 12 September 2008 is based on more recent international assumptions, of which those relative to euro area GDP growth in 2008.

    In 2008, we expect euro area real GDP to progress by a modest 1.5% and by only 1% in 2009. GDP growth should reach an annual average rate of 1.6% over the 2008-2015 period and be gradually curtailed by a declining working-age population and by private sector capacity constraints which should lead monetary authorities to raise interest rates. GDP growth in the United States is expected to reach 1.8% in 2008 and to average only 2% per annum over 2008-2015, slowing markedly in 2011 as a number of significant tax cut provisions expire. In Japan, GDP growth is expected to reach 1% in 2008 and fall to only 0.4% in 2009. GDP is projected to rise at a low yearly average rate of 0.9% over 2008-2015. Japan's economic growth is projected to rapidly lose momentum as the ageing of the country's population leads to a decline in the labour supply.

    Forecasts & Outlook - NEO 02-08  Publication(en),

  • Determinants of innovation in a small open economy: the case of Belgium 29/06/2008

    Using dynamic panel data on 20 Belgian market sectors over 1987-2005, the paper analyses the link between Multifactor Productivity (MFP) growth and three frequently cited determinants: business R&D, labour skills and ICT use. The theoretical framework of the analysis is given by the Aghion-Howitt model which explains the rate of MFP growth by the distance to the world technology frontier.

    Working Papers - Working Paper 11-08  Publication(en), Publication(fr),

  • STU 02-08 : Special topic : Long-Term Projections of Freight Transport and its Environmental Impact 26/05/2008

    The medium-term outlook for Belgium points towards an average GDP growth rate of 2% for the period 2008-2013. A slowdown is expected for the Belgian economy in 2008 and 2009 (GDP growth of only 1.7%), mainly as a consequence of less dynamic exports and a moderate increase in domestic demand. Belgian GDP growth should accelerate in 2010, thanks to the more favourable international environment and a more dynamic development of domestic demand. From 2011 onwards, Belgian GDP growth should stabilise slightly above its potential (equal to 2% on average). Note that the global economic situation is beset with many uncertainties and, therefore, the outlook is surrounded with considerable risks, especially for the short term.

    The average yearly growth rate for private consumption should reach 1.7% for the period 2008-2013, which is slightly lower than the increase in households’ real disposable income. Purchasing power will be handicapped in 2008 by the high inflation rate (3.8%), but should be underpinned afterwards by employment growth and by higher increases in wage rates and social benefits. Investment growth should reach 2.8% for the period 2008-2013, reflecting the path of business investment growth (supported by business profitability and stable demand prospects after 2009). Growth in exports should reach 5% on average and the contribution of net exports to GDP growth is expected to be 0.1%-points. After an acceleration in 2008, the inflation rate should stabilise slightly below 2% for the period 2009-2013. This rather low inflation rate is mainly due to a moderate increase in imported costs and the persistence of a negative output gap until 2013.

    The expected evolution of employment reflects a relatively favourable macroeconomic environment and persistently modest labour productivity growth (1.2% per year). After a particularly high number of new jobs created in 2007 (70,000), employment growth should remain sustained: about 42,000 units should be created every year during the period 2008-2013. Between 2007 and 2013, manufacturing industrial employment should fall by 35,000 but the number of jobs created in market services should exceed 270,000. Nevertheless, in view of the increase in the labour force (notably explained by incoming migration), the fall in unemployment should be limited to 22,000 persons. The unemployment rate (broad administrative statistics) should fall from 12.6% in 2007 to 11.6% in 2013.

    Under the assumption of constant policy, public accounts are expected to deteriorate markedly, with a net public financing requirement of 0.3% of GDP in 2008, widening to 0.8% of GDP in 2009 and 0.9% of GDP in 2010, before gradually falling to 0.4% by the end of the projection period. Nevertheless, the total public debt to GDP ratio will continue to decline, from 84.8% in 2007 to 70.8% in 2013. [STU 2-08 was finalised on 26 May 2008]

    Closed series - Short Term Update 02-08  STU 02-08(en),

  • The PLANET Model: Methodological Report 16/05/2008

    The PLANET model is a model of the Belgian Federal PLANning Bureau that models the relationship between the Economy and Transport. Its aim is to produce: (i) medium- and long-term projections of transport demand in Belg ium, both for passenger and freight transport; (ii) simulations of the effects of transport policy measures; (iii) cost-benefit analyses of transport policy measures. The methodological report describes the main features of the PLANET model.

    Working Papers - Working Paper 10-08  Publication(en),

  • Trade-based measures of offshoring: an overview for Belgium 15/04/2008

    Offshoring has since long been a matter of concern in developed countries and has recently received growing attention in the economic literature. The aim of this paper is to provide a critical review of definitions of offshoring that have been put forward in recent years, thereby updating the definitions in earlier publications of the Federal Planning Bureau. We also take a closer look at how offshoring can be measured. In the absence of individual firm data, we focus on indirect trade-based measures of offshoring, compare them and present results for Belgium that show an upward trend in offshoring.

    Working Papers - Working Paper 09-08  Publication(en),

  • STU 01-08 : Special Topic : Are Belgian price stability and purchasing power at stake? 21/03/2008

    In line with the international business cycle, qoq GDP growth in Belgium slightly decelerated from 0.7% in the first quarter to 0.5% in the third and the fourth quarter. This year, quarterly growth should be between 0.4% and 0.5%. On a yearly basis, economic growth should slow down from 2.7% in 2007 to 1.9% in 2008. In 2007, the Belgian economy was driven by domestic demand. This year, domestic demand growth should decline markedly. Private consumption growth is expected to weaken as the slowdown in job creation, the more modest increase in wages before indexation, and the acceleration in inflation should all limit the growth of real disposable income. This will also affect housing investment, together with the increased mortgage rates. Business investment growth should also slow down in view of less favourable demand perspectives.

    Export growth should be almost as strong in 2008 as in 2007 despite a slowdown in the growth of the relevant export markets. As a consequence, Belgian exports will keep on losing export market shares, but to a lesser extent. The combination of real import growth exceeding export growth and deteriorating terms of trade should reduce the Belgian current account surplus to 2.5% of GDP in 2008 as compared to 2.9% last year.

    After a net gain of about 68,000 persons in 2007, employment is expected to record an average increase of 46,600 persons this year. As employment will increase faster than the labour force, the broad administrative unemployment rate is expected to decline from 12.7% in 2007 to 12.2% in 2008. The harmonised Eurostat unemployment rate (based on labour force surveys) should fall from 7.6% last year to 7.3% in 2008.

    According to our inflation update of March, the increase in the national index of consumer prices should accelerate to 3.5%, after 1.8% in 2007. This acceleration is mainly due to substantial price increases in energy products and in processed food items (especially cereal and milk products). [STU 1-08 was finalised on 7 March 2008]

    Closed series - Short Term Update 01-08  STU 01-08(en),

First page Previous page  27 of 45  Next page Last page
Please do not visit, its a trap for bots