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To promote transparency and provide information, the Federal Planning Bureau regularly publishes the methods and results of its works. The publications are organised in different series, such as Outlooks, Working Papers and Planning Papers. Some reports can be consulted here, along with the Short Term Update newsletters that were published until 2015. You can search our publications by theme, publication type, author and year.
Forecasts & Outlook - Economic outlook 2024-2029 (February) (fr), (nl),
Articles - Article 019 (fr), (nl),
Forecasts & Outlook - SHORT_DP23 (fr), (nl),
Other publications - DC2024 - START NOTE (fr), (nl),
In the context of the election programme costing exercise, the Federal Planning Bureau is anticipating proposals from political parties for the introduction of a top wealth tax. The purpose of this document is to explain the estimation method for its budgetary impulse. To do so, we use data from the Belgian National Bank's Household Financial Behaviour Survey. We develop the calculation method for estimating revenues with or without the potential behavioural responses of taxpayers. To include potential behavioural responses, we investigate two approaches, namely the bunching method and the inclusion of net wealth elasticities estimated abroad. Based on the results, we will preserve only the second method for the DC2024 costing. Furthermore, this paper reviews the literature on the macroeconomic effects of the top wealth tax - literature relevant to understand the inclusion of the tax in the HERMES and QUEST models.
Working Papers - DC2024_WP_08 (fr), (nl),
This paper gives a non-technical description of the PLANET and CASMO models. The main results of the models are presented using the reference scenario for the costing exercise. Several policy scenarios and their results are also presented, for illustration purposes.
Working Papers - DC2024_WP_07 (fr), (nl),
The Artelys Crystal Super Grid model, developed by the French company Artelys, focuses on the electricity sector. Working with a high temporal resolution, it allows to evaluate the impact of measures affecting the production park, via several indicators. The latter notably relate to the security of supply, the cost of electricity, and the sustainability of the system, via the greenhouse gas emissions.
Working Papers - DC2024_WP_06 (fr), (nl),
As part of the 2024 costing of electoral platforms, the QUEST III R&D dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model will be used to simulate the long-term effects of structural and (para-)fiscal measures proposed by the political parties. This paper summarises the characteristics of the model, presents its structure and the main transmission mechanisms and constraints. The functioning of the model is then illustrated through five stylised structural and (para-)fiscal reforms.
Working Papers - DC2024_WP_05 (fr), (nl),
The Federal Planning Bureau's econometric model HERMES will be used to calculate the macroeconomic and budgetary impact of each political party's set of priority measures over the next legislature. This working paper summarises the characteristics of the model and describes its structure and main transmission mechanisms. It then illustrates the functioning of the model using several economic policy variants. Finally, this working paper describes the procedure for constructing the reference scenario and presents the main results of the June 2023 economic outlook. Those forecasts constitute the prefiguration of the reference scenario which will be published in February 2024, covering the period 2024-2029.
Working Papers - DC2024_WP_04 (fr), (nl),
In the framework of the election costing exercise the impact on the distribution of disposable income is measured for a number of measures proposed by political parties. Administrative micro-data are used for this exercise. This approach allows that the impact of the measures studied is reported at the level of individual or household characteristics. The policy measures whose impact on the distribution of disposable income is calculated are measures situated within the domain of social security and social assistance, supplemented by the regulations on family allowances, the contribution rules applied to these benefits and the rules on personal income tax. The tool used for these calculations is the microsimulation model EXPEDITION. The present paper describes the main features of the EXPEDITION model and illustrates its operation on the basis of two simulations.
Working Papers - DC2024_WP_03 (fr), (nl),
Working Papers - DC2024_WP_02 (fr), (nl),
As part of the election budgetary costings and impact assessment, the PROMES projection model is used to calculate the fiscal impulse of policy measures within the public health domain. This Working Paper outlines the characteristics, structure and operation of the model. We illustrate the simulation possibilities of the model using the base case and some alternative scenarios.
Working Papers - DC2024_WP_01 (fr), (nl),
This report shows that minimum regulations (minimum pensions and the minimumright per career year) and pension credits diminish pension inequality between men and women. If we assume that there are no minimum regulations, the pension gap would be 37% instead of 31%. If we assume that pension credits are not granted, the gap would be 43% instead of 31%. The pension credit part-time work with maintenance of pension rights, one specific type of pension credit, has a limited impact. Without this pension credit, the pension gap would increase with 0.4 percentage points.
Reports - REP_12936 (nl),
Reports - REP_CEIPSCOI2023 (fr), (nl),
The supplementary table 29 of the Eurostat transmission program covers the statutory and occupational pension schemes in social insurance in Belgium. The FPB is charged with the compilation of columns G and H, which include accrued-to-date pension entitlements/liabilities in the statutory pension schemes, representing the present discounted value of accrued-to-date future old-age and survivor pensions of current beneficiaries and future beneficiaries who accumulated pension rights up to the valuation date.
Reports - REP_T29_12928 (en),
Reports - REP_IOT_12921 (fr), (nl),
European Regulation No 691/2011 obliges the member states of the European Union to deliver six environmental economic accounts to Eurostat. The accounts concerned are the three accounts that have been obligatory since 2013, the Environmental Taxes by Economic Activity (ETEA), the Air Emissions Accounts (AEA) and the Economy-Wide Material Flow Accounts (EW-MFA), as well as the three accounts that have to be delivered as of 2017, the Environmental Goods and Services Sector (EGSS), the Environmental Protection Expenditure Accounts (EPEA), and the Physical Energy Flow Accounts (PEFA).
In this publication the National Accounts Institute presents the EPEA for the years 2014-2021.
Reports - REP_EPEA_12912 (fr), (nl),
Working Papers - Working Paper 07-23 (fr), (fr), (nl), (nl),
Articles - Article 018 (fr), (nl),
This report uses the PLANET model to examine the impact of an alternative train offer on passenger transport demand by 2040. For this purpose, the results of several alternative scenarios are compared with the reference scenario of the transport outlook published in April 2022.
Reports - Rep_12889 (nl),
The idea of a top wealth tax has regained interest in Belgium, as opposed to the international trend in the last decades. While twelve OECD countries implemented it in 1990, only three still do since 2018. Such a tax raises questions. For the account of the Federal Planning Bureau, the ULB studied a top wealth tax to define its scope and understand the stakes at play.
Other publications - STUD_202301 (fr), (nl),
The aim of this report is to study the effects on freight transport demand of the abolition of the refund of excise duties on professional diesel, using the PLANET model. The analysis compares the results published in April 2022 in the Outlook for transport demand in Belgium with a variant counting on the abolition of this regime for trucks from 2025 (t+1 in the model).
Reports - REP_PLANET_12888 (fr),
In this publication the National Accounts Institute presents the EGSS for the years 2014-2021.
Reports - REP_EGSS_12886 (fr), (nl),
This Review assesses the Federal Planning Bureau (FPB)’s institutional, operational and analytical performance as an independent fiscal institution. The FPB’s responsibilities have been growing and this Review provides insights into how effectively the institution continues to serve the needs of its stakeholders. As part of this, it looks at the Bureau’s performance related to its new mandate to undertake election budgetary costings and impact assessment, carried out for the first time in relation to the 2019 election.
Reports - REP_OECD_2023 (en), (en), (en), (fr), (nl),
Other publications - IIS 05 (fr), (nl),
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