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To promote transparency and provide information, the Federal Planning Bureau regularly publishes the methods and results of its works. The publications are organised in different series, such as Outlooks, Working Papers and Planning Papers. Some reports can be consulted here, along with the Short Term Update newsletters that were published until 2015. You can search our publications by theme, publication type, author and year.
Other publications - DC2024 - START NOTE (fr), (nl),
In the context of the election programme costing exercise, the Federal Planning Bureau is anticipating proposals from political parties for the introduction of a top wealth tax. The purpose of this document is to explain the estimation method for its budgetary impulse. To do so, we use data from the Belgian National Bank's Household Financial Behaviour Survey. We develop the calculation method for estimating revenues with or without the potential behavioural responses of taxpayers. To include potential behavioural responses, we investigate two approaches, namely the bunching method and the inclusion of net wealth elasticities estimated abroad. Based on the results, we will preserve only the second method for the DC2024 costing. Furthermore, this paper reviews the literature on the macroeconomic effects of the top wealth tax - literature relevant to understand the inclusion of the tax in the HERMES and QUEST models.
Working Papers - DC2024_WP_08 (fr), (nl),
This paper gives a non-technical description of the PLANET and CASMO models. The main results of the models are presented using the reference scenario for the costing exercise. Several policy scenarios and their results are also presented, for illustration purposes.
Working Papers - DC2024_WP_07 (fr), (nl),
The Artelys Crystal Super Grid model, developed by the French company Artelys, focuses on the electricity sector. Working with a high temporal resolution, it allows to evaluate the impact of measures affecting the production park, via several indicators. The latter notably relate to the security of supply, the cost of electricity, and the sustainability of the system, via the greenhouse gas emissions.
Working Papers - DC2024_WP_06 (fr), (nl),
As part of the 2024 costing of electoral platforms, the QUEST III R&D dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model will be used to simulate the long-term effects of structural and (para-)fiscal measures proposed by the political parties. This paper summarises the characteristics of the model, presents its structure and the main transmission mechanisms and constraints. The functioning of the model is then illustrated through five stylised structural and (para-)fiscal reforms.
Working Papers - DC2024_WP_05 (fr), (nl),
The Federal Planning Bureau's econometric model HERMES will be used to calculate the macroeconomic and budgetary impact of each political party's set of priority measures over the next legislature. This working paper summarises the characteristics of the model and describes its structure and main transmission mechanisms. It then illustrates the functioning of the model using several economic policy variants. Finally, this working paper describes the procedure for constructing the reference scenario and presents the main results of the June 2023 economic outlook. Those forecasts constitute the prefiguration of the reference scenario which will be published in February 2024, covering the period 2024-2029.
Working Papers - DC2024_WP_04 (fr), (nl),
In the framework of the election costing exercise the impact on the distribution of disposable income is measured for a number of measures proposed by political parties. Administrative micro-data are used for this exercise. This approach allows that the impact of the measures studied is reported at the level of individual or household characteristics. The policy measures whose impact on the distribution of disposable income is calculated are measures situated within the domain of social security and social assistance, supplemented by the regulations on family allowances, the contribution rules applied to these benefits and the rules on personal income tax. The tool used for these calculations is the microsimulation model EXPEDITION. The present paper describes the main features of the EXPEDITION model and illustrates its operation on the basis of two simulations.
Working Papers - DC2024_WP_03 (fr), (nl),
Working Papers - DC2024_WP_02 (fr), (nl),
As part of the election budgetary costings and impact assessment, the PROMES projection model is used to calculate the fiscal impulse of policy measures within the public health domain. This Working Paper outlines the characteristics, structure and operation of the model. We illustrate the simulation possibilities of the model using the base case and some alternative scenarios.
Working Papers - DC2024_WP_01 (fr), (nl),
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