Multiregional Population Projection Model at the EU level [ Working Paper 07-18 - 08/06/2018]

This paper explores the possibility of building a multiregional migration model at the EU level based on Eurostat statistics on migration by country of previous and next residence, by country of birth or by citizenship. These statistics are used to build a consistent origin-destination matrix for the EU Member States. In this case, ’consistent’ means that the sum of all intra-EU movements should be equal to 0. This matrix is then used to compute migration rates between EU countries, which can be inserted into a multiregional population projection model.

This paper shows that the currently available official statistics on migration flows can be used to build a multiregional migration model at the EU level.  Although more developments should be implemented to test and improve the model, it produces promising results.