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To promote transparency and provide information, the Federal Planning Bureau regularly publishes the methods and results of its works. The publications are organised in different series, such as Outlooks, Working Papers and Planning Papers. Some reports can be consulted here, along with the Short Term Update newsletters that were published until 2015. You can search our publications by theme, publication type, author and year.
This Working Paper presents the methodological progress made in projecting international migration. The new methodology is notably based on an analysis of migration flows per nationality and on statistics on reasons for migrating, in order to assess whether economic variables constitute relevant determinants of migration. If they do, the impact of economic determinants on immigration is estimated using econometric methods. The methodology also takes into account the increasing globalization and mobility as well as the expected growth of the global population which boost international migration flows (immigration and emigration). Finally, it grants more stability to the long-term migration projections and, therefore, to the population projections; the annual revisions of long-term migration will be less dependent on the short-term evolution of migration flows.
The Working Paper presents a study or analysis conducted by the Federal Planning Bureau on its own initiative.
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Themes
Social protection, demography and prospective studies > Demographic projections
JEL
Mathematical and Quantitative Methods > Econometric Modeling > Model Construction and Estimation [C51]
Labor and Demographic Economics > Demographic Economics > Demographic Trends and Forecasts [J11]
Keywords
None
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