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The Federal Planning Bureau (FPB) is an independent public agency. It draws up studies and projections on economic, social and environmental policy issues and on the integration of these policies within a context of sustainable development.
Filip Vanhorebeek has been working for the Federal Planning Bureau since March 1995, initially on the medium-term projections and afterwards as coordinator of the team in charge of the short-term outlooks. Due to the merging of both teams in October 2015, he currently coordinates the Macroeconomic projections and analyses team that, in cooperation with other teams, produces short- and medium-term projections for the Belgian economy as well as impact studies.
The Federal Planning Bureau's econometric model HERMES will be used to calculate the macroeconomic and budgetary impact of each political party's set of priority measures over the next legislature. This working paper summarises the characteristics of the model and describes its structure and main transmission mechanisms. It then illustrates the functioning of the model using several economic policy variants. Finally, this working paper describes the procedure for constructing the reference scenario and presents the main results of the June 2023 economic outlook. Those forecasts constitute the prefiguration of the reference scenario which will be published in February 2024, covering the period 2024-2029.
Ce rapport a été réalisé à la demande du Vice-Premier ministre et ministre de l’Emploi, de l’Economie et des Consommateurs. Il présente l’impact macroéconomique et budgétaire à moyen terme d’un relèvement des allocations sociales fédérales minimums au niveau du seuil de pauvreté.
Dit rapport stelt de macro-economische en -budgettaire impact op middellange termijn voor van het optrekken van de federale sociale minimumuitkeringen tot de armoededrempel. Het werd gerealiseerd op vraag van de Vice-eersteminister en minister van Werk, Economie en Consumenten.
Le modèle économétrique HERMES du Bureau fédéral du Plan sera sollicité pour calculer les impacts macroéconomiques et sur le solde budgétaire et la dette publique des mesures contenues dans la liste des priorités de chaque parti politique dans le cadre du ‘chiffrage des programmes électoraux 2019’. Le présent document résume les caractéristiques du modèle, en présente la structure et les principaux mécanismes de transmission ainsi que les limites. Le fonctionnement du modèle est ensuite illustré à l’aide de quelques variantes de politique économique. Dans une seconde partie, la procédure d’élaboration du scénario de référence est décrite et les principaux résultats des perspectives économiques de juin 2018 sont présentés. Ces évolutions constituent la préfiguration du scénario de référence à l’aune duquel les effets macro-économiques des mesures prioritaires des partis politiques seront évalués.
Het econometrische model HERMES van het Federaal Planbureau zal worden gebruikt om de macroeconomische impact en de invloed op het begrotingsresultaat en de overheidsschuld te berekenen van de maatregelen in de prioriteitenlijst van elke politieke partij in het kader van de ‘doorrekening van de verkiezingsprogramma’s 2019'. Dit document geeft een samenvatting van de kenmerken van het model, presenteert de structuur ervan en de belangrijkste transmissiemechanismen en beperkingen. Vervolgens wordt de werking van het model geïllustreerd aan de hand van enkele economische beleidsvarianten. In een tweede deel wordt de procedure voor het opstellen van het referentiescenario beschreven en worden de belangrijkste resultaten van de economische vooruitzichten van juni 2018 voorgesteld. Die evoluties vormen de prefiguratie van het referentiescenario op basis waarvan de macro-economische impact van de prioritaire maatregelen van de politieke partijen zal worden geëvalueerd.
Le présent working paper illustre le fonctionnement du modèle HERMES à l’aide de huit mesures de politique économique testées en variantes. Ces mesures sont simulées par rapport à un scénario de référence qui est celui des « Perspectives économiques 2018-2023 » de juin 2018. Elles consistent en des augmentations de dépenses publiques ou des diminutions de recettes publiques sur une période de cinq ans.
Deze working paper illustreert de werking van het HERMES-model aan de hand van acht beleidsvarianten. De hier voorgestelde maatregelen worden gesimuleerd ten opzichte van een referentiescenario, nl. de Economische vooruitzichten 2018-2023 (juni 2018). Ze verhogen de overheidsuitgaven of verminderen de overheidsontvangsten over een periode van vijf jaar.
À la demande du Conseil central de l’économie, le Bureau fédéral du Plan a analysé l’impact d’une hausse de la TVA sur les produits alimentaires et les boissons non alcoolisées. Ce rapport synthétise les principaux résultats macroéconomiques, sectoriels et budgétaires d’une hausse de la TVA de 6 % à 7 % sur ces deux catégories de consommation. La simulation a été réalisée au moyen du modèle HERMES. Étant donné que la mesure n’est pas compensée, dans la simulation, par une réduction équivalente d’autres prélèvements, elle est favorable aux finances publiques mais défavorable pour l’activité économique et l’emploi. Le gain budgétaire à moyen terme est néanmoins limité par des effets dérivés en raison desquels les nouvelles recettes sont en grande partie compensées par des dépenses additionnelles.
Op vraag van de Centrale Raad voor het Bedrijfsleven heeft het Federaal Planbureau de impact onderzocht van een btw-verhoging op voeding en op alcoholvrije dranken. Dit rapport vat, op basis van een simulatie met het HERMES-model, de voornaamste macro-economische, sectorale en budgettaire resultaten samen van een verhoging van de btw-voet op beide consumptiecategorieën van 6 % tot 7 %. Aangezien de maatregel in deze simulatie niet gecompenseerd wordt door een equivalente vermindering van andere heffingen, ligt het voor de hand dat de maatregel ongunstig is voor de economische activiteit en de werkgelegenheid, maar de overheidsfinanciën ten goede komt. De budgettaire winst wordt op middellange termijn evenwel beperkt door afgeleide effecten, waardoor een belangrijk deel van de meeropbrengst gecompenseerd wordt door bijkomende overheidsuitgaven.
En réponse à une demande du cabinet du Premier Ministre, ce rapport présente une estimation des effets retour nets pour la sécurité sociale des réductions du coût du travail décidées dans le cadre du tax shift sous l’hypothèse d’un relèvement des prélèvements fiscaux équivalent ex ante.
In antwoord op een vraag van het kabinet van de Eerste Minister raamt dit rapport de netto terugverdieneffecten van de arbeidskostenverminderingen zoals beslist in het kader van de tax shift in de veronderstelling van een ex ante equivalente verhoging van de fiscale druk.
Op vraag van de Staatssecretaris voor Armoedebestrijding stelt dit rapport de resultaten voor van twee impactstudies, nl. een verhoging (tot het niveau van de armoederisicodrempel) van de inkomensvervangende tegemoetkoming voor personen met een handicap en van de inkomensgarantie voor ouderen. De studie bestrijkt twee domeinen: enerzijds de macro-economische en budgettaire effecten met eventuele terugverdieneffecten en anderzijds de gevolgen op het armoederisico.
Ce rapport, réalisé à la demande de la secrétaire d’État à la Lutte contre la pauvreté, présente les résultats de deux études d’impact, qui portent sur l’augmentation (jusqu’au niveau du seuil de pauvreté) de l’allocation de remplacement de revenus pour les personnes handicapées, et de la garantie de revenus aux personnes âgées. Le rapport comporte deux volets: d’une part, le calcul des effets macroéconomiques et budgétaires, en ce compris les éventuels effets de retour et, d’autre part, l’estimation de l’impact sur le risque de pauvreté.
Les « Perspectives économiques 2015-2020 » annoncent une reprise de la croissance de l’économie belge. Bien que relativement modeste (1,5 % en moyenne annuelle), cette croissance irait de pair avec une progression assez soutenue de l’emploi (près de 34 000 par an en moyenne). Le poids économique de l’ensemble des administrations publiques, notamment en termes d’emploi, serait en recul, ce qui contribue, avec la baisse des charges d’intérêt, à la réduction très significative du déficit public, qui s’établirait à 1,1 % du PIB à l’horizon 2020.
De ‘Economische vooruitzichten 2015-2020’ kondigen een groeiherstel van de Belgische economie aan. Die groei is nog relatief bescheiden (gemiddeld 1,5 % per jaar), maar zou gepaard gaan met een vrij sterke werkgelegenheidsgroei (gemiddeld bijna 34 000 jobs per jaar). Het economisch gewicht van de gezamenlijke overheid zou afnemen, o.m. in termen van werkgelegenheid, en samen met de daling van de rentelasten bijdragen tot de aanzienlijke vermindering van het overheidstekort, dat 1,1 % van het bbp zou bedragen in 2020.
Dit rapport vormt een bijdrage tot de voorbereiding van het nieuwe Stabiliteitsprogramma en van het nieuwe Nationaal Hervormingsprogramma (NHP). Het vermeldt de voornaamste resultaten van de voorlopige versie van de “Economische vooruitzichten 2015-2020” die in mei 2015 gepubliceerd zullen worden.
Ce rapport constitue une contribution à la préparation du nouveau Programme de Stabilité et du nouveau Programme National de Réforme (PNR). Il reprend les principaux résultats de la version préliminaire des « Perspectives économiques 2015-2020 » qui seront publiées en mai 2015.
Conformément à la loi du 21 décembre 1994, l’Institut des Comptes nationaux (ICN) a communiqué les chiffres du budget économique au ministre de l’Économie. Selon la procédure prévue, le Bureau fédéral du Plan (BFP) a soumis une proposition de budget économique au comité scientifique et au conseil d’administration de l’ICN. Cette dernière instance adopte les chiffres définitifs et en porte la responsabilité finale. Le comité scientifique a émis un avis favorable sur le budget économique.
Overeenkomstig de wet van 21 december 1994 heeft het Instituut voor de Nationale Rekeningen (INR) de cijfers van de economische begroting meegedeeld aan de minister van Economie. Volgens de gangbare procedure heeft het Federaal Planbureau (FPB) een voorstel van economische begroting voorgelegd aan het wetenschappelijk comité en aan de raad van bestuur van het INR. Laatstgenoemde keurt de definitieve cijfers goed en draagt de eindverantwoordelijkheid. Het wetenschappelijk comité heeft een gunstig advies uitgebracht over de economische begroting.
Conformément à la loi du 21 décembre 1994, l’Institut des Comptes Nationaux a communiqué les chiffres du budget économique au ministre de l’Économie. Ces perspectives macroéconomiques sont réalisées dans le cadre de la préparation du budget fédéral pour 2015. Au niveau de la politique économique et sociale, ces perspectives ne prennent en compte que les décisions formellement approuvées par les autorités publiques. En l’absence de mesures détaillées, les politiques nouvelles contenues dans les accords des gouvernements régionaux n’ont pas pu être intégrées.
Overeenkomstig de wet van 21 december 1994 heeft het Instituut voor de Nationale Rekeningen de cijfers van de economische begroting meegedeeld aan de minister van Economie. Deze macro-economische vooruitzichten kaderen in de opmaak van de federale begroting voor 2015. Op beleidsvlak houden deze vooruitzichten enkel rekening met door de overheden formeel goedgekeurde beslissingen. Nieuwe maatregelen in het kader van de regionale regeerakkoorden werden niet opgenomen aangezien ze nog niet voldoende zijn gedetailleerd.
This working paper describes the new version of MODTRIM II, the FPB’s quarterly macroeconomic model for short-term forecasting. The short-term forecasts are published three times a year and are referred to as the "economic budget", as they are used by the federal government to set up its budget and to perform budgetary control exercises. The objective of this working paper is not to provide a complete description of the model, but to focus on the specification and estimation results of the behavioural equations.
Conformément à la loi du 21 décembre 1994, l’Institut des Comptes Nationaux a communiqué les chiffres du budget économique au ministre de l’Économie. Ces perspectives macroéconomiques s'inscrivent dans le cadre de la préparation du budget 2015. Comme à l’accoutumée, les mesures prises en compte dans ces perspectives macroéconomiques sont celles connues à ce jour.
Overeenkomstig de wet van 21 december 1994 heeft het Instituut voor de Nationale Rekeningen de cijfers van de economische begroting meegedeeld aan de minister van Economie. Deze macro-economische vooruitzichten kaderen in de voorbereiding van de begroting voor 2015 en houden, zoals gebruikelijk, enkel rekening met de tot dusver gekende maatregelen.
The FPB’s latest forecast dates from September and predicted, conditional on our traditional assumption of unchanged budgetary policy, a GDP growth rate of -0.1% in 2012 and 0.7% in 2013 for the Belgian economy. This forecast was established against a background of euro area GDP growth amounting to -0.5% and 0.3% for those years respectively.
The Belgian GDP flash estimate matched our forecast of zero qoq GDP growth in 2012Q3, and recent forecasts of the European Commission (October) and the OECD (November) were in line with the FPB forecast. National as well as international leading indicators (such as the Ifo, PMI, and the NBB business cycle indicators) are tentatively stabilising, implying that a modest recovery for the euro area as a whole and for Belgium in the course of 2013 remains plausible.
We have not yet estimated the economic impact of the Belgian government’s decisions taken in November (which are summarised in the “policy measures” section on page 21), but expect it to be quite small. The federal government’s effort to reduce the budget deficit to 2.15% of GDP in 2013 focuses on measures of which the impact on economic activity should be limited. Important risks to the international scenario still remain. These encompass a new intensification of the European sovereign debt crisis, the possibility that the US economy will fall back into recession if the fiscal cliff materialises, and a surge in oil prices because of turmoil in the Middle East. Finally, additional fiscal consolidation efforts in the euro area could have adverse effects on short-term aggregate demand as there is evidence that fiscal multipliers are currently higher than in normal economic conditions.
Our next short-term forecast will be published in February 2013.
STU 04-12 was finalised on 4 December 2012.
Since 2011Q2, economic growth in the euro area has been affected by the global slowdown and, above all, by the sovereign debt crisis. After negative GDP growth in 2011Q4 and 2012Q2, economic activity is expected to have contracted further in 2012Q3, resulting in a 0.5% decline in real GDP this year. A slight recovery is expected in the course of 2013, but annual euro area GDP growth should remain limited to 0.3%. This scenario remains highly uncertain as policy makers' decisiveness in tackling the euro crisis will be crucial to restore consumer and investor confidence.
Belgian economic activity should decline slightly in 2012 (-0.1%) due to adverse economic conditions in Europe and budgetary austerity. The recent development of consumer and business confidence suggests that Belgian economic activity should stabilize in 2012Q3 after a marked decline in 2012Q2. From 2012Q4 onwards, GDP growth should gradually pick up in the wake of a tentative upswing in the euro area and reach 0.7% on an annual basis in 2013.
Domestic employment fell in 2012Q1 and should only start to recover from the beginning of 2013 onwards. In 2012, the net increase in employment should amount to 11 000 units on average as it benefits from a favourable carry-over from 2011. In 2013, employment is expected to rise by 13 700 units. As employment growth falls behind the increase in the labour force for two consecutive years, unemployment is expected to rise by 9 100 units this year and by 24 000 units next year. As a result, the harmonised unemployment rate (Eurostat definition) for Belgium should rise from 7.2% in 2011 to 7.4% in 2013.
According to our most recent inflation forecasts, finalised at the end of September, Belgian inflation, as measured by the yoy growth rate of the national consumer price index, should cool from 2.8% in 2012 to 1.7% in 2013. This is mainly due to a slight decrease in the crude oil price, but also to the fact that some fiscal measures taken in 2012 will no longer affect yoy growth of consumer prices from the beginning of 2013 onwards.
STU 3-12 was finalised on 3 October 2012.
Les présentes prévisions tiennent compte des agrégats annuels publiés dans la Partie 2 des Comptes nationaux 2011 ("Comptes détaillés et tableaux") mais aussi les agrégats trimestriels jusqu’au deuxième trimestre 2012.
Les hypothèses concernant l’environnement international sont basées sur des prévisions consensus récentes (The Economist) et sur les estimations trimestrielles du commerce mondial de biens effectuées par le Centraal Planbureau néerlandais. L’évolution des variables financières (taux de change, taux d’intérêt, prix du pétrole) reflète les anticipations des marchés financiers à la fin août. Les prévisions pour la Belgique ont été générées au moyen des versions trimestrielle et annuelle du modèle Modtrim développé par le BFP.
Ces prévisions ont été finalisées le 13 septembre 2012.
Deze vooruitzichten houden rekening met de jaaraggregaten die gepubliceerd werden in deel 2 van de Nationale rekeningen 2011 (‘Gedetailleerde rekeningen en tabellen’), alsook met de voornaamste aggregaten tot het tweede kwartaal van 2012.
De hypothesen in verband met de internationale omgeving zijn gebaseerd op recente consensusvooruitzichten (The Economist) en kwartaalramingen van de wereldgoederenhandel die opgesteld werden door het Nederlandse Centraal Planbureau. De evolutie van de financiële variabelen (wisselkoersen, rentevoeten, olieprijzen) werd afgeleid uit de verwachtingen van de financiële markten van eind augustus. De vooruitzichten voor België werden gegenereerd aan de hand van de jaar- en de kwartaalversie van het Modtrim-model, dat op het FPB werd ontwikkeld.
Deze vooruitzichten werden voltooid op 13 september 2012.
The new economic outlook for Belgium for the period 2012-2017 is based on a context of budget consolidation and weak economic growth for Europe. After a year 2012 marked by a mild recession, the euro area should gradually recover the path of growth. However, this growth would be modest and mixed according to country. The main risk factor for these growth forecasts lies in the sovereign debt crisis and the evolution of the financial sector in the euro area. Despite this unfavourable context, the Belgium economy should avoid a recession in 2012 and register GDP growth equal to 1.4% in 2013. From 2014 onwards, Belgian economic growth should become more dynamic, without exceeding 2%. Export growth should amount to 3.7% on average on an annual basis over the period 2014-2017, which means that the loss of market share should persist (1.3 percentage points per year). Over the same period, domestic demand should have an annual growth rate of 1.6%, causing GDP to increase by 1.9% on average per year. Belgian inflation should exceed largely 2% in 2012, owing to a new rise in energy prices, the depreciation of the euro against the dollar, and increases in indirect taxes, but should fall below 2% in 2013, notably thanks to lower oil prices. In the context of a moderate rise in international energy prices, Belgian inflation should stabilize at 1.8% on average during the period 2014-2017.
Total domestic employment should increase by 8 000 units this year and by 14 000 units next year. From 2014 onwards, total employment is expected to increase by 188 000 jobs over the period 2014-2017. The number of unemployed persons (broad administrative concept) should rise between 2012 and 2014 (+ 64 000 units). Over the following years, employment should grow more strongly, while the labour force continues to expand, partially due to the pension reform. As a result, the decrease in unemployment should remain limited to 33 000 units during the period 2015-2017. Finally, as measured by the Eurostat definition, which allows for international comparisons, the unemployment rate should amount to 7.3% in 2013, compared to 7.2% in 2011.
Driven by the federal government's consolidation measures and the federate bodies' ongoing budgetary consolidation, the general government's deficit should shrink to 2.6% of GDP this year (compared to 3.7% in 2011) and thus meet the objective of the Stability Programme. Without additional measures, the general government's deficit should again increase to 2.8% of GDP in 2013. In the medium term, the deficit should shrink slightly to attain 2.5% of GDP in 2017. To reach a balanced budget in 2015 (as planned by the Stability Programme), additional measures amounting to EUR 11 billion are thus necessary.
STU 2-12 was finalised on 1 June 2012.
Les présentes prévisions tiennent compte des agrégats annuels publiés dans la Partie 1 des Comptes nationaux 2010 (" Comptes détaillés et tableaux ") mais aussi les agrégats trimestriels jusqu’au troisième trimestre 2011 et l’estimation " flash " du PIB du quatrième trimestre.
Les hypothèses concernant l’environnement international sont basées sur des prévisions consensus récentes (Consensus Economics) et sur les estimations trimestrielles du commerce mondial de biens effectuées par le Centraal Planbureau néerlandais. L’évolution des variables financières (taux de change, taux d’intérêt, prix du pétrole) reflète les anticipations des marchés financiers à la fin janvier. Les prévisions pour la Belgique ont été générées au moyen des versions trimestrielle et annuelle du modèle Modtrim développé par le BFP. Ces prévisions ont été finalisées le 9 février 2012.
Deze vooruitzichten houden rekening met de jaaraggregaten die gepubliceerd werden in deel 2 van de Nationale rekeningen 2010 (‘Gedetailleerde rekeningen en tabellen’), alsook met de voornaamste aggregaten tot het derde kwartaal van 2011 en met de bbp-flashraming voor het vierde kwartaal.
De hypothesen in verband met de internationale omgeving zijn gebaseerd op recente consensusvooruitzichten (Consensus Economics) en kwartaalramingen van de wereldgoederenhandel die opgesteld werden door het Nederlandse Centraal Planbureau. De evolutie van de financiële variabelen (wisselkoersen, rentevoeten, olieprijzen) werd afgeleid uit de verwachtingen van de financiële markten van eind januari. De vooruitzichten voor België werden gegenereerd aan de hand van de jaar- en de kwartaalversie van het Modtrim-model, dat op het FPB werd ontwikkeld. Deze vooruitzichten werden voltooid op 9 februari 2012.
The European Union set up the Europe 2020 Strategy as the successor to the Lisbon Strategy to monitor and stimulate structural reform by the Member States. In the first semester of each year (the so-called European Semester), the Member States compile their Stability & Convergence and National Reform Programmes. At the turn of the semester the European Council develops policy recommendations to be implemented, preferably during the second semester. Sound performance on structural issues lays a foundation for healthy potential growth around which the business cycle oscillates.
Following the calendar of this renewed strategy, the Federal Planning Bureau decided to move the structural performance update – traditionally published in December - to the March issue and adapt the calendar of the business-cycle updates accordingly. The present December issue is, however, a one-off issue exclusively devoted to the system of innovation. Innovation has been recognised in the Europe 2020 strategy as the first of seven ‘flagships’ that should secure smart, sustainable, and inclusive growth. Innovation should have a positive impact on productivity growth and hence encourage potential GDP growth and employment. Measured in terms of R&D, not more than a few Member States achieve an innovation effort that is comparable to that of the other advanced economies of the world.
The system of innovation is an assembly of six interlinked dimensions: knowledge development by R&D; human resources; valorisation of R&D, e.g. through patents; innovation absorption capacity within and among enterprises; entrepreneurship; and financing. A good performance on each of the six is needed for a system to perform optimally. This December issue monitors the performance of Belgium on each of the dimensions. Other EU countries, the USA, and Japan serve as a benchmark. The performance seems to be mixed, so efforts are still needed to drive further improvement of the Belgian innovation system as a condition for growth and jobs.
STU 04-11 was finalised on 16 December 2011.
Headlines Belgian economy
Euro area economic growth slowed down substantially in 2011Q2 (0.2%), after a vigorous 0.8% in 2011Q1. The economic slack is expected to continue during the rest of this year due to the weakening in world trade growth and a major decline in consumer and business confidence. Under the assumption that financial market tensions, which are driven by worries about Europe’s sovereign debt, recede towards the end of this year (i.e., if European monetary and fiscal policy makers can restore calm), quarterly GDP growth should accelerate gradually in the course of next year. However, even then, euro area growth should not exceed 1.2% for 2012 as a whole. However, if the turmoil in financial markets persists or worsens, households and businesses could further reduce their spending and European banks could face (additional) losses on their holdings of sovereign debt. This would endanger any economic recovery.
The global economic slowdown should have a significant impact on Belgian GDP growth in the second half of this year (0.2% per quarter on average). In our baseline scenario, quarterly growth should gradually recover in the course of next year. On a yearly basis, however, this would lead to a deceleration in GDP growth from 2.4% in 2011 to 1.6% in 2012.
Domestic employment rose sharply between 2010Q1 and 2011Q1. In the second half of this year and in the course of 2012, far fewer jobs are expected to be created, owing to the economic slowdown. Backed by a favourable starting point, employment should still increase by 54 200 units on average in 2011. In 2012, net job creation should remain limited to around 30 000 units. The number of unemployed should still decrease by 23 600 units this year, but rise by 9 500 units next year. As a result, the unemployment rate (Eurostat definition) should rise from 7.3% in 2011 to 7.4% in 2012.
Our most recent inflation forecasts were finalised at the end of September. Belgian inflation, as measured by the yoy growth rate of the national consumer price index, should accelerate to 3.4% on average this year (compared to 2.2% in 2010), mainly as a result of higher crude oil prices. According to futures market quotations, oil prices should remain below their peak levels of April 2011. This should bring consumer price inflation down to 1.8% on average in 2012.
STU 3-11 was finalised on 29 September 2011.
En application de la loi du 21 décembre 1994, l’Institut des comptes nationaux (ICN) a communiqué au ministre pour l’Entreprise et la Simplification les chiffres du budget économique. Selon la procédure prévue, le Bureau fédéral du Plan (BFP) a soumis une proposition de budget économique au comité scientifique et au conseil d’administration de l’ICN. Cette dernière instance adopte les chiffres définitifs et en porte la responsabilité finale. Le comité scientifique a émis un avis favorable sur le budget économique.
Les présentes prévisions tiennent compte des agrégats annuels publiés dans la Partie 1 des Comptesnationaux 2010 (ʺ Première estimation des comptes annuels ʺ) mais aussi des agrégats trimestriels jusqu’au premier trimestre 2011 et de l’estimation ‘flash’ du PIB du deuxième trimestre.
Les hypothèses concernant l’environnement international, et plus particulièrement la croissance économique des principaux partenaires commerciaux de la Belgique, ont été déterminées sur la base d’indicateurs de confiance (pour le deuxième semestre 2011) et supposent (pour 2012) un retour progressif vers le rythme de croissance trimestrielle présenté dans les perspectives de la Commission européenne publiées en mai. L’évolution des variables financières (taux de change, taux d’intérêt, prix du pétrole) reflète les anticipations des marchés financiers au début septembre. Les prévisions pour la Belgique ont été générées au moyen des versions trimestrielle et annuelle du modèle Modtrim développé par le BFP. Ces prévisions ont été finalisées le 8 septembre 2011.
Overeenkomstig de wet van 21 december 1994 heeft het Instituut voor de Nationale Rekeningen (INR) de cijfers van de economische begroting meegedeeld aan de minister voor Ondernemen en Vereenvoudigen. Volgens de gangbare procedure heeft het Federaal Planbureau (FPB) een voorstel van economische begroting voorgelegd aan het wetenschappelijk comité en aan de raad van bestuur van het INR. Laatstgenoemde keurt de definitieve cijfers goed en draagt de eindverantwoordelijkheid. Het wetenschappelijk comité heeft een gunstig advies uitgebracht over de economische begroting.
Deze vooruitzichten houden rekening met de jaaraggregaten die gepubliceerd werden in deel 1 van de Nationale rekeningen 2010 (‘Eerste raming van de jaarlijkse rekeningen’), met de kwartaalaggregaten tot het eerste kwartaal van 2011 en met de flash-raming van het bbp in het tweede kwartaal. De hypothesen in verband met de internationale omgeving werden, voor wat de economische groei van Belgiës belangrijkste handelspartners betreft, bepaald op basis van vertrouwensindicatoren (voor het tweede semester van 2011) en veronderstellen (voor 2012) een geleidelijke terugkeer naar de kwartaalgroei die de Europese Commissie in haar vooruitzichten van mei publiceerde. De evolutie van de financiële variabelen (wisselkoersen, rentevoeten, olieprijzen) werd afgeleid uit de verwachtingen van de financiële markten van begin september. De vooruitzichten voor België werden gegenereerd aan de hand van de jaar- en de kwartaalversie van het Modtrim-model, dat op het FPB werd ontwikkeld. Deze vooruitzichten werden voltooid op 8 september 2011.
The new Economic outlook for Belgium for the period 2011-2016 is based on a context that is characterised by a stronger-than-expected recovery of the world economy, spurred on in particular by the Asian emerging economies and the US economy. Three main risks could undermine this international scenario: the budgetary position of several countries and the financial risks that this may entail; the volatility of commodity prices; and the overheating of several emerging economies.
Belgian GDP growth should amount to 2.2% in 2011 and in 2012, affirming its outperformance compared to the euro area since the start of the crisis. This growth rate should persist in the medium term. In 2011 and 2012, domestic demand growth should accelerate, backed by private consumption and business investment. Public investment should be highly dynamic in the run-up to the local elections of 2012. After an impressive increase in 2010, exports are expected to increase at a slower pace in 2011 and 2012 due to the deceleration in world trade growth. From 2013 onwards, growth in domestic demand and exports should remain close to historical average rates.
Belgian inflation should accelerate considerably in 2011 (3.5%), mainly due to a steep increase in raw material prices. Without new shocks on commodity prices, inflation should stabilise around 2% in the medium term.
Belgian employment coped remarkably well with the crisis. The rise in employment in the enterprise sector in 2010 (+27 000 persons) had already compensated for the decline in 2009. This performance seems to be related mainly to the so-called temporary unemployment system and the further increase in the number of people working in the government-subsidised voucher programme for domestic-type services. From 2011 onwards, employment in the enterprise sector should increase by roughly 46 000 persons per year. The number of unemployed should decline by 8 000 units in 2011 and by 3 000 units in 2012, followed by a strengthening in the annual decline in unemployment of up to 16 000 persons in 2016. The unemployment rate (broad administrative definition) should fall from 12.6% of the labour force in 2010 to 11% at the end of the projection period.
The general government deficit amounted to 4.1% of GDP in 2010 and should shrink to 3.8% of GDP in 2011, taking into account the budget information up to mid-April. Under a constant policy assumption, the public deficit should increase significantly in 2012 (4.4% of GDP) and decline gradually from 2013 onwards to reach 3.6% of GDP in 2016. The deficit reduction path, which aims to achieve a balanced budget in 2015, requires structural consolidation measures amounting to 17 billion euro.
STU 2-11 was finalised on 1 June 2011.
Last year, the global economic recovery after the 2009 recession turned out to be stronger than initially expected. The phasing out of stimulus measures, a deceleration of world trade growth, and public deficit reduction measures are expected to weigh on economic growth in the euro area this year. However, the German economy should continue to grow noticeably faster than the euro area average and impact positively its neighbouring countries (including Belgium). The international economic context remains highly uncertain, among other factors with regard to the future evolution of oil and other raw material prices.
In the wake of the Germany’s strong growth performance, combined with a catch-up in construction activity after the cold winter, Belgian GDP increased sharply in 2010Q2 (1.1%). The growth deceleration in 2010Q3 (0.4%) was therefore hardly surprising, all the more so because export market growth was already expected to slow down in the second semester. In the course of 2011, Belgian export growth should pick up again and domestic demand growth should strengthen, owing to investment especially. As a result, GDP growth should gradually improve from 0.5% in 2011Q1 to 0.6% in 2011Q4. On an annual basis, Belgian GDP growth is estimated at 2% both for 2010 and for 2011.
Despite the rise in labour productivity and working time, the number of jobs has been increasing again since the beginning of 2010. During the first half of this year, employment growth should weaken slightly owing to an acceleration of productivity growth, but should regain momentum thereafter. The number of employed persons is expected to increase by 28 500 on average in 2010 and by 37 600 in 2011. Considering the evolution of the labour force, the number of unemployed should fall by 4 600 on average this year. Therefore, the harmonised unemployment rate (Eurostat definition) should stabilise at 8.4%.
Measured by the yoy growth rate of the monthly consumer price index, Belgian inflation was on the rise in the course of 2010 as a result of a steady increase in commodity prices. Underlying inflation was also on an uptrend as from May 2010 and should increase further as the recent rise in commodity prices feeds into prices of other goods and services. According to our most recent inflation forecasts, finalised at the end of February, the inflation rate should increase from 2.2% in 2010 to 3.3% in 2011.
STU 01-11 was finalised on 2 March 2011.
Les présentes prévisions tiennent compte des agrégats annuels publiés dans la Partie 2 des Comptes nationaux 2009 (« Comptes détaillés et tableaux ») et des agrégats trimestriels publiés jusqu’au troisième trimestre 2010.
Les hypothèses concernant l’environnement international sont basées sur des prévisions consensus récentes (The Economist) et sur les estimations trimestrielles du commerce mondial de biens effectuées par le Centraal Planbureau néerlandais. L’évolution des variables financières (taux de change, taux d’intérêt, prix du pétrole) reflète les anticipations des marchés financiers à la mi‐janvier. Les prévisions pour la Belgique ont été générées au moyen des versions trimestrielle et annuelle du modèle Modtrim développé par le BFP. Ces prévisions ont été finalisées le 25 janvier 2011.
Deze vooruitzichten houden rekening met de jaaraggregaten die gepubliceerd werden in deel 2 van de Nationale rekeningen 2009 (‘Gedetailleerde rekeningen en tabellen’) en met de kwartaalaggregaten tot het derde kwartaal van 2010.
De hypothesen in verband met de internationale omgeving zijn gebaseerd op recente consensusvooruitzichten (The Economist) en kwartaalramingen van de wereldgoederenhandel die opgesteld werden door het Nederlandse Centraal Planbureau. De evolutie van de financiële variabelen (wisselkoersen, rentevoeten, olieprijzen) is afgeleid uit de verwachtingen van de financiële markten van midden januari. De vooruitzichten voor België werden gegenereerd aan de hand van de jaar‐ en de kwartaalversie van het Modtrim‐model, dat op het FPB werd ontwikkeld. Deze vooruitzichten werden voltooid op 25 januari 2011.
Since mid-2009, the world economy has been recovering from one of the worst post-war economic crises. As of mid-2010, world economic growth should slow down as stimulus measures are gradually reduced or phased out and stock building becomes less of a support to economic growth. Moreover, western economies now face major challenges in restoring health to public finances. As a result, the international context remains surrounded by major uncertainties, with downside as well as upside risks.
During the second half of 2009, the Belgian economy posted positive quarterly growth rates driven by recovering exports and an acceleration of private consumption growth. In 2010Q1, the economic recovery was, however, interrupted due to a drop in construction activity owing to the cold weather. Strong GDP growth in 2010Q2 (0.9%) was in turn partly due to a catch-up by the construction sector, but exports boomed as well because of the strong growth of the German economy. In line with the international business cycle, qoq GDP growth should decelerate to 0.3% on average during the second half of 2010. In the course of 2011, export growth should pick up again, resulting in average quarterly GDP growth of 0.5% in the second half of the year. On an annual basis, GDP growth should amount to 1.8% in 2010 and 1.7% in 2011.
The past recession has had a smaller impact on domestic employment than initially expected. A temporary strong decrease in hourly labour productivity and in average hours worked per person softened the downward impact on the number of employed persons. Consequently, the net decrease in employment in 2009 was limited to 17 500 persons (-0.4%). Hourly labour productivity and average working time should catch up in the course of this year and next year. Combined with a modest economic recovery, the net increase in employment should therefore remain limited to 10 100 persons in 2010 and 4 700 in 2011. The harmonised Eurostat unemployment rate (which is based on labour force surveys) is expected to increase from 7% in 2008 to 9% in 2011.
During recent years, Belgian headline inflation (as measured by yoy growth of the national index of consumer prices) has primarily been influenced by the evolution of raw materials prices. As from May 2010, underlying inflation has also been creeping up. In the course of the next year, underlying inflation should remain on an uptrend. Nevertheless, consumer price inflation is expected to decelerate somewhat because of the quasi-stabilisation of energy prices. On an annual basis, inflation should drop from 2.1% in 2010 to 2% in 2011.
STU 3-10 was finalised on 1 October 2010
The new medium-term outlook for Belgium is based on an international context that is marked by a stronger-than-expected recovery, particularly spurred on by the large Asian emerging economies and the American economy. Nevertheless, the uncertainty surrounding these forecasts continues to be higher than before the financial crisis. The important budget deficits and global trade and capital flow imbalances continue to threat the stability of worldwide economic growth.
The yearly growth of the Belgian economy should amount to 1.4% in 2010 and 1.7% in 2011 and exceed 2% in 2012-2015. After a sharp decline in 2009, domestic demand should start rising again in 2010, despite the ongoing fall in business investment. As of 2011, domestic demand should rise at an average yearly rate of just above 2% as its various components regain their trend-based growth. Belgian exports, which fell by 11% in 2009, are expected to recover from 2010 onwards. The contribution of net exports to GDP growth should be largely positive in 2010 (+0.7%-points) and weaken from 2011 onwards (+0.2%-points on average) due to the acceleration in domestic demand.
Belgian inflation should not exceed 2% on a yearly basis as the limited increase in nominal unit labour costs (average annual growth of 1% during the period 2010-2015) should keep underlying inflation in check. However, this limited increase masks a decline in 2010 followed by a gradual acceleration to 2% in 2015.
Employment should decline by 33 000 units in 2010 and increase by as little as 7 000 units in 2011. As economic growth accelerates in 2012-2015, employment should expand by nearly 50 000 persons per year on average. Employment as a percentage of the population aged between 20 and 64 years, should initially fall from 68% in 2008 to 66.3% in 2010 but should recover to 67.7% in 2015, a rate still far below the 75% target set by the EU. In 2012, unemployment (broad administrative definition) is expected to peak at a level that is 128 000 units higher than in 2008. From 2013 onwards, unemployment should slowly decline and reach 698 000 units in 2015.
The general government budget deficit should shrink from 5.9% of GDP in 2009 to 4.8% of GDP in 2010. However, under the assumption of constant policy, the deficit should again exceed 5% of GDP from 2011 onwards. A further and considerable fiscal adjustment is thus necessary to cut back the deficit to 3% of GDP in 2012 and achieve a balanced budget in 2015 in accordance with the Stability Programme of January 2010.
STU 2-10 was finalised on 1 June 2010.
According to our February forecast, quarterly GDP growth should remain limited to 0.3% on average in the course of 2010, which is about half of the quarterly growth in the second half of 2009. This slowdown is in line with the international business cycle, which should temporarily lose momentum to the extent that monetary and budgetary stimuli fade and restocking comes to an end. In the course of 2011, exports should pick up and domestic demand should gain momentum, resulting in average quarterly GDP growth of 0.6%. On a yearly basis, Belgian GDP should increase by 1.4% in 2010 and 1.7% in 2011, after a drop of 3% last year. This means that real GDP should remain below its pre-crisis level until late 2011.
Net job losses reached 23 200 persons on average in 2009 and should add up to 46 100 this year. This trend should reverse in 2011, with a net creation of 8 600 jobs. Given the evolution of the labour force, the number of unemployed (broad administrative definition) should increase by 52 900 persons this year (after going up by 45 000 persons in 2009) and by almost 29 000 persons in 2011. As a result, the harmonised Eurostat unemployment rate (which is based on labour force surveys) is expected to reach 8.8% in 2011, compared to 7% in 2008.
Headline inflation in Belgium, as measured by yoy growth of the national index of consumer prices, was negative from May to November 2009, which was mainly due to the negative impact of energy prices. As a result, overall inflation remained just below zero in 2009. At the end of last year, the base effect of the drop in energy prices had disappeared. Combined with a gradual increase in oil prices, headline inflation should rise to 1.7% in 2010 according to our inflation forecast of March.
Ces prévisions ont été finalisées le 10 février 2010.
Deze vooruitzichten werden voltooid op 10 februari 2010.
After the escalation of the financial crisis in September 2008, the industrialised countries were pulled into a deep recession. The main uncertainty that currently surrounds economic forecasts concerns the robustness of the international economic recovery. In fact, monetary and fiscal policies have been able to stabilise the world economy more rapidly than expected, but it remains difficult to predict whether the economic recovery is able to withstand the fading out of the impact of the economic stimulus measures.
According to our September forecast, Belgian GDP growth should become slightly positive in the second half of 2009. In the course of 2010, economic growth should also be supported by domestic demand. Quarterly GDP growth should pick up further in the course of 2011 and reach 0.6%. This will result in annual GDP growth rates amounting to 0.4% in 2010 and 1.9% in 2011, after a drop of 3.1% this year.
Whereas total net job creation still amounted to 71 200 persons on average last year, 34 600 jobs should be lost this year. In 2010, job losses should add up to 58 900 on average. In 2011, a net job creation of 17 600 persons on average is expected. Given the evolution of the labour force, the number of unemployed (broad administrative definition) should increase by 53 900 persons this year, by 98 400 next year and a further 23 300 persons in 2011. As a result, the harmonized Eurostat unemployment rate (which is based on labour force surveys) is expected to reach 9.6 % in 2011, compared to 7% in 2008.
According to our inflation update of October, headline inflation (as measured by yoy growth of the national index of consumer prices) has become negative since May and should remain so until November 2009. The yoy decrease of the index results from the price evolution of a limited number of products and is temporary. Underlying inflation should cool down further as a reaction to weak economic activity and the gradual pass through of lower energy prices into the prices of other goods and services, but should remain clearly positive. This year, inflation should be zero on average, mainly due to the negative impact of energy prices. As oil prices should increase gradually, their negative impact on inflation should disappear, resulting in a rise in inflation to 1.3% in 2010, despite the decrease in underlying inflation (from 2% in 2009 to slightly above 1% in the second half of 2010).
STU 3-09 was finalised on 6 October 2009
En application de la loi du 21 décembre 1994, l’Institut des comptes nationaux (ICN) a commu-niqué au ministre pour l’Entreprise et la Simplification les chiffres du budget économique. Selon la procédure prévue, le Bureau fédéral du Plan (BFP) a soumis une proposition de budget économique au comité scientifique et au conseil d’administration de l’ICN. Cette dernière instance adopte les chiffres définitifs et en porte la responsabilité finale. Le comité scientifique a émis un avis favorable sur le budget économique.
Les présentes prévisions tiennent compte des agrégats annuels publiés dans la Partie 1 des Comptes nationaux 2008 (" Première estimation des comptes annuels ") et des agrégats trimestriels publiés jusqu’au premier trimestre 2009.
Deze vooruitzichten houden rekening met de jaaraggregaten die gepubliceerd werden in deel 1 van de Nationale rekeningen 2008 (‘Eerste raming van de jaarlijkse rekeningen’) en met de kwartaalaggregaten tot het eerste kwartaal van 2009.
The new medium-term economic outlook for Belgium has been drawn up in an international context that is heavily influenced by the financial crisis and the deep economic recession this has brought about. Belgian GDP should fall by nearly 4% in 2009, followed by zero growth in 2010 as the crisis subsides. In the wake of a worldwide recovery, Belgian GDP growth should start accelerating from 2011 onwards, resulting in average growth for the period 2011-2014 (2.3%) that is similar to the average of the past twenty years. Note that the global economic situation is beset with many uncertainties and, therefore, the outlook is surrounded with considerable risks, especially for the short term.
Households are expected to raise their precautionary savings dramatically in 2009, thus lowering their consumption compared to last year (-0.6%). Strongly unfavourable demand prospects, combined with a sharp drop in profitability and deteriorated external financing conditions will lead to a sharp contraction in business investment (-7.5%). Domestic demand should recover slightly in 2010 and more markedly from 2011 onwards. The volume of Belgian exports is expected to go down for two years in a row (-8.9% in 2009 and -0.6% in 2010) and the contribution of net exports to GDP growth should be largely negative. From 2011, Belgian export growth should be close to its historical growth rate (4.8%). After a peak in 2008 (4.5%), the inflation rate should fall to 0.3% on average in 2009. In the medium term, inflation is expected to pick up again, but to remain below 2%.
The effects on employment of the sudden fall in activity should materialise progressively: domestic employment should drop on average by 37 000 jobs this year and by 53 000 jobs next year. The recovery in 2011 should not be labour-intensive and employment is only expected to increase significantly from 2012 onwards (by a little more than 43 000 jobs a year on average). This evolution of employment, combined with an increase in the labour supply, should lead to a rise in unemployment of 194 000 units from 2009 to 2011. In the next three years, the unemployment rate (broad administrative definition) should go up from 11.8% to 15.2%. As from 2012, the unemployment rate should gradually decrease to reach 14.5% in 2014.
Under the assumption of constant policy, public sector accounts are expected to deteriorate markedly, with a net public financing requirement of 4.3% of GDP in 2009, widening to 5.6% of GDP in 2010. The end of the recession will not lead to a reduction in the deficit, which should peak at 6.1% of GDP in 2012 before slightly improving afterwards. As a result, Belgian public debt should again experience a snowball effect, going up from 89.3% of GDP in 2008 to 106% of GDP in 2014.
STU 2-09 was finalised on 27 May 2009
In 2008Q4, the financial crisis and the recession faced by the main trading partners took their toll and caused Belgian GDP to fall by 1.3% qoq. According to our February forecast, Belgian economic activity should continue to contract in the course of 2009 and only stabilise in the fourth quarter. As a consequence, Belgian GDP is projected to fall by 1.9% in 2009, after an increase of 1.1% in 2008. Despite the considerable downward revision of Belgian GDP growth for 2009 (last September a positive economic growth of 1.2% was forecast), the uncertainty surrounding this forecast remains exceptionally large and downside risks are likely to be greater than upside risks.
Belgian exports should fall by 4.6% this year, after an increase of 2.2% in 2008. Imports should decrease less than exports. Despite the drop in oil prices and the appreciation of the euro, the current account balance should remain negative and reach -1.8% of GDP in 2009.
In 2008, private consumption increased by 0.9%. The negative growth of private consumption in 2009 (-0.4%) is mainly due to historically low consumer confidence and negative wealth effects caused by the drop in asset prices. This should lead to a strong rise in the households' savings rate (up to 15.8%). Worsened demand prospects, the decline in business profitability, falling capacity utilisation rates and tightened lending conditions should exert a drag on business investment in 2009, which should fall by 4.6%. Household investment growth should also turn negative in 2009 (-1.6%), although this contraction will be mitigated somewhat by a temporary VAT reduction. Only public consumption and public investment growth rates are expected to remain positive.
This year, an average (net) loss of 24 700 jobs should be registered. Job losses in the course of 2009 will be far worse than appears from the annual averages: in 2009Q4, employment should be 59 100 persons lower than in 2008Q4. The harmonised Eurostat unemployment rate (which is based on labour force surveys) is expected to reach 8.2% in 2009, compared to 7.1% in 2008.
Despite high underlying inflation during the first half of 2009, total inflation, as measured by the yoy increase in the national index of consumer prices, should continue to decrease and even become slightly negative during summer. Only in the second half of this year should the expected oil price increase be reflected in inflation evolution. According to our inflation update of March, average inflation should decline from 4.5% in 2008 to 0.5% in 2009.
STU 1-09 was finalised on 2 March 2009.
Ces prévisions ont été finalisées le 11 février 2009.
Deze vooruitzichten werden voltooid op 11 februari 2009.
Since mid-September, the financial crisis has entered an exceptionally turbulent new phase. The US and European authorities have had to take extraordinary measures in order to deal with solvency and liquidity problems in the banking sector. As financial conditions are likely to remain difficult, it is obvious that the crisis will have large negative effects on the world economy, although the size of these effects is currently very difficult to grasp due to huge uncertainties concerning the magnitude and the duration of the crisis.
This uncertainty explains the volatility of most indicators, which makes it currently very difficult to establish credible economic forecasts. The latest short-term forecasts of the FPB were finalised in the first half of September, i.e. before the aggravation of the financial turbulence. According to these forecasts, Belgian GDP growth should amount to 1.6% in 2008 and slow down to 1.2% in 2009. The 2009 government budget is based on this outlook.
In the light of recent financial sector developments, the latest FPB forecasts should be revised downwards, in line with revisions of economic growth by national and international institutions. In fact, the weakening of economic growth in the course of 2008 will probably be stronger than expected, while the subsequent recovery could take longer to materialise and could lack strength. The channels through which the financial crisis is affecting the real economy are discussed in the Special Topic of this Short Term Update.
Belgian business and consumer confidence have dropped to their lowest level in more than five years due to weakening economic growth and the financial crisis, which are tending to reinforce one another. Moreover, consumer confidence has suffered from the high number of lay-offs in large Belgian companies. On the other hand, the decline in oil prices and the depreciation of the euro have limited the worsening of sentiment somewhat through their positive effect on households’ purchasing power and export competitiveness.
Inflation forecasts for 2009 have been revised downwards since September, which is the result of two counteracting factors. In fact, the downward effect of falling oil prices on inflation is partly compensated by the stronger than expected increase in underlying inflation. According to our end-of-October inflation update, the increase in the national index of consumer prices should slow down from 4.6% in 2008 to 1.9% in 2009.
STU 3-08 was finalised on 31 October 2008.
Ces prévisions ont été finalisées le 10 septembre 2008.
Deze vooruitzichten werden voltooid op 10 september 2008.
The medium-term outlook for Belgium points towards an average GDP growth rate of 2% for the period 2008-2013. A slowdown is expected for the Belgian economy in 2008 and 2009 (GDP growth of only 1.7%), mainly as a consequence of less dynamic exports and a moderate increase in domestic demand. Belgian GDP growth should accelerate in 2010, thanks to the more favourable international environment and a more dynamic development of domestic demand. From 2011 onwards, Belgian GDP growth should stabilise slightly above its potential (equal to 2% on average). Note that the global economic situation is beset with many uncertainties and, therefore, the outlook is surrounded with considerable risks, especially for the short term.
The average yearly growth rate for private consumption should reach 1.7% for the period 2008-2013, which is slightly lower than the increase in households’ real disposable income. Purchasing power will be handicapped in 2008 by the high inflation rate (3.8%), but should be underpinned afterwards by employment growth and by higher increases in wage rates and social benefits. Investment growth should reach 2.8% for the period 2008-2013, reflecting the path of business investment growth (supported by business profitability and stable demand prospects after 2009). Growth in exports should reach 5% on average and the contribution of net exports to GDP growth is expected to be 0.1%-points. After an acceleration in 2008, the inflation rate should stabilise slightly below 2% for the period 2009-2013. This rather low inflation rate is mainly due to a moderate increase in imported costs and the persistence of a negative output gap until 2013.
The expected evolution of employment reflects a relatively favourable macroeconomic environment and persistently modest labour productivity growth (1.2% per year). After a particularly high number of new jobs created in 2007 (70,000), employment growth should remain sustained: about 42,000 units should be created every year during the period 2008-2013. Between 2007 and 2013, manufacturing industrial employment should fall by 35,000 but the number of jobs created in market services should exceed 270,000. Nevertheless, in view of the increase in the labour force (notably explained by incoming migration), the fall in unemployment should be limited to 22,000 persons. The unemployment rate (broad administrative statistics) should fall from 12.6% in 2007 to 11.6% in 2013.
Under the assumption of constant policy, public accounts are expected to deteriorate markedly, with a net public financing requirement of 0.3% of GDP in 2008, widening to 0.8% of GDP in 2009 and 0.9% of GDP in 2010, before gradually falling to 0.4% by the end of the projection period. Nevertheless, the total public debt to GDP ratio will continue to decline, from 84.8% in 2007 to 70.8% in 2013. [STU 2-08 was finalised on 26 May 2008]
In line with the international business cycle, qoq GDP growth in Belgium slightly decelerated from 0.7% in the first quarter to 0.5% in the third and the fourth quarter. This year, quarterly growth should be between 0.4% and 0.5%. On a yearly basis, economic growth should slow down from 2.7% in 2007 to 1.9% in 2008. In 2007, the Belgian economy was driven by domestic demand. This year, domestic demand growth should decline markedly. Private consumption growth is expected to weaken as the slowdown in job creation, the more modest increase in wages before indexation, and the acceleration in inflation should all limit the growth of real disposable income. This will also affect housing investment, together with the increased mortgage rates. Business investment growth should also slow down in view of less favourable demand perspectives.
Export growth should be almost as strong in 2008 as in 2007 despite a slowdown in the growth of the relevant export markets. As a consequence, Belgian exports will keep on losing export market shares, but to a lesser extent. The combination of real import growth exceeding export growth and deteriorating terms of trade should reduce the Belgian current account surplus to 2.5% of GDP in 2008 as compared to 2.9% last year.
After a net gain of about 68,000 persons in 2007, employment is expected to record an average increase of 46,600 persons this year. As employment will increase faster than the labour force, the broad administrative unemployment rate is expected to decline from 12.7% in 2007 to 12.2% in 2008. The harmonised Eurostat unemployment rate (based on labour force surveys) should fall from 7.6% last year to 7.3% in 2008.
According to our inflation update of March, the increase in the national index of consumer prices should accelerate to 3.5%, after 1.8% in 2007. This acceleration is mainly due to substantial price increases in energy products and in processed food items (especially cereal and milk products). [STU 1-08 was finalised on 7 March 2008]
Overeenkomstig de wet van 21 december 1994 heeft het Instituut voor de Nationale Rekeningen (INR) de cijfers van de economische begroting meegedeeld aan de minister van economie. Volgens de gangbare procedure heeft het Federaal Planbureau (FPB) een voorstel van economische begroting voorgelegd aan het wetenschappelijk comité en aan de raad van bestuur van het INR. Laatstgenoemde keurt de definitieve cijfers goed en draagt de eindverantwoordelijkheid. Het wetenschappelijk comité heeft een gunstig advies uitgebracht over de economische begroting.
En application de la loi du 21 décembre 1994, l’Institut des comptes nationaux (ICN) a communiqué au ministre de l’Economie les chiffres du budget économique. Selon la procédure prévue, le Bureau fédéral du Plan (BFP) a soumis une proposition de budget économique au comité scientifique et au conseil d’administration de l’ICN. Cette dernière instance adopte les chiffres définitifs et en porte la responsabilité finale. Le comité scientifique a émis un avis favorable sur le budget économique.
En application de la loi du 21 décembre 1994, l’Institut des comptes nationaux (ICN) a communiqué au ministre de l’Economie les chiffres du budget économique. Selon la procédure prévue, le Bureau fédéral du Plan (BFP) a soumis une proposition de budget économique au comité scientifique et au conseil d’administration de l’ICN. Cette dernière instance adopte les chiffres définitifs et en porte la responsabilité finale. Le comité scientifique a émis un avis favorable sur le budget économique. Les présentes prévisions tiennent compte des agrégats annuels publiés dans la Partie 2 des Comptes nationaux 2006 (‘Comptes détaillés et tableaux’) et des agrégats trimestriels publiés jusqu’au deuxième trimestre 2007.
Les hypothèses concernant l’environnement international sont basées sur les prévisions de printemps de la Commission européenne (actualisées sur la base des observations trimestrielles jusqu’au deuxième trimestre 2007), sur les prévisions intérimaires de la Commission européenne (publiées le 11 septembre), et enfin, sur les estimations trimestrielles du commerce mondial de biens effectuées par le Centraal Planbureau néerlandais. L’évolution des variables financières (taux de change, taux d’intérêt, prix du pétrole) reflète les anticipations des marchés financiers au 24 septembre. Les prévisions pour la Belgique ont été générées au moyen des versions trimestrielle et annuelle du modèle MODTRIM développé par le BFP. Ces prévisions ont été finalisées le 28 septembre 2007.
Overeenkomstig de wet van 21 december 1994 heeft het Instituut voor de Nationale Rekeningen (INR) de cijfers van de economische begroting meegedeeld aan de minister van economie. Volgens de gangbare procedure heeft het Federaal Planbureau (FPB) een voorstel van economische begroting voorgelegd aan het wetenschappelijk comité en aan de raad van bestuur van het INR. Laatstgenoemde keurt de definitieve cijfers goed en draagt de eindverantwoordelijkheid. Het wetenschappelijk comité heeft een gunstig advies uitgebracht over de economische begroting. Deze vooruitzichten houden rekening met de jaaraggregaten die gepubliceerd werden in deel 2 van de Nationale rekeningen 2006 (‘Gedetailleerde rekeningen en tabellen’) en de kwartaalaggregaten tot het tweede kwartaal van 2007.
De hypothesen in verband met de internationale omgeving zijn gebaseerd op de voorjaarsvooruitzichten van de Europese Commissie, geactualiseerd op basis van observaties tot het tweede kwartaal van 2007, de interimvooruitzichten van de Europese Commissie (gepubliceerd op 11 september) en kwartaalramingen van de wereldgoederenhandel die opgesteld werden door het Nederlandse Centraal Planbureau. De evolutie van de financiële variabelen (wisselkoersen, rentevoeten, olieprijzen) is afgeleid uit de verwachtingen van de financiële markten op 24 september. De vooruitzichten voor België werden gegenereerd aan de hand van de jaar- en de kwartaalversie van het MODTRIM-model, dat op het FPB werd ontwikkeld. Deze vooruitzichten werden voltooid op 28 september 2007.
This year, the Belgian economy should register an increase in GDP of 2.7%. In 2008, economic growth is expected to slow down to 2.1%.
In 2006, Belgian exports grew significantly slower than the relevant export markets. Belgian exporters thus suffered from important losses of market share. Despite a steady deceleration of growth in the relevant export markets this year and next year, export growth should accelerate somewhat. Consequently, losses of export market shares should be more in line with their historical trend. The current account balance has worsened since 2003 due to the continued rise in oil prices. In 2007 and 2008, the slower increase in oil prices and the appreciation of the euro should limit the decline of the current account balance to 0.1% of GDP per year.
Domestic demand growth, which is mainly determined by the evolution of private consumption and business investment, should amount to 3.2% this year and 2% next year. In 2007, private consumption will benefit from a strong rise in employment and in property income, while business investment will be stimulated by the high capacity utilisation rate and the ongoing rise in profitability. Next year, private consumption growth should decelerate due to a smaller rise in real disposable income and less favourable demand prospects should weigh on business investment. Domestic employment should increase by, on average, 61,300 persons in 2007 and 44,200 persons in 2008. As the number of jobs is growing faster than the labour force, broad administrative unemployment is expected to decrease by 57,800 persons this year and 20,400 persons next year. The harmonised Eurostat unemployment rate (which is calculated by means of labour force surveys) is expected to fall from 8.2% in 2006 to 7.2% in 2008.
The evolution of inflation, as measured by the national index of consumer prices, is strongly influenced by the evolution of natural gas prices, which should decline in 2007 and rise substantially in 2008. Consequently, inflation should amount to 1.7% this year and 2.2% next year.
STU 3-07 was finalised on 5 October 2007.
This working paper gives an overview of recent research aimed at refining forecasts and analysis of Belgian foreign trade. Regarding export markets, a new leading indicator is introduced as an additional tool for assessing the growth profile for Belgium's potential export markets in the first quarters to be forecast. With respect to exports, an analysis is made concerning the considerable and partly unexplained loss of export market share in recent years. It appears that (a lack of) competitiveness plays an important role in the evolution of Belgium's export market share, but it cannot explain it entirely.
This working paper gives an overview of the Modtrim team’s recent research in the field of Belgian exports and export markets. In the first chapter a new leading indicator is introduced as a supplementary tool to determine a growth profile for Belgium’s potential export markets in the first quarters of the forecasting period. In the second chapter, an attempt is made to improve forecasts of Belgium’s exports by breaking down the model equation into a goods and a services component. Finally, the third chapter reveals that (a lack of) competitiveness is probably not the only reason for the losses of export market share in Belgium and in some of its main trading partners in the past 25 years.
The medium-term outlook for Belgium points towards an average GDP growth rate of 2.1% during the period 2007-2012, which is slightly higher than the potential rate (2.0%) and similar to the average growth rate of the euro area. This pace of growth follows a strong rebound in 2006 (3.0%), mainly driven by domestic demand, in a context of an improvement in international economic activity.
The average yearly growth rate for private consumption should reach 1.8% during the period 2007-2012, which is slightly lower than the increase in households’ disposable income. Purchasing power will especially be underpinned by employment growth in 2007 and 2008 and by higher increases in wages and social benefits at the end of the projection period. Investment growth should reach 2.7% during the period 2007-2012, reflecting the path of business investment growth (supported by high business profitability and stable demand prospects), but also an acceleration in public investment at the end of the projection period. Growth in exports should reach 5.7% on average and the contribution of net exports to GDP growth should amount to 0.2%-points. The external surplus, which was strongly reduced between 2002 and 2005, should (slowly) increase from 2007 onwards and attain 3.1% of GDP in 2012. The combination of moderate increases in domestic costs and limited rises in imported costs should allow the inflation rate to remain below 2% in the medium term.
The expected evolution of employment reflects a favourable macroeconomic context, limited wage increases (mainly at the start of the period) and various measures taken to promote employment. After a particularly high number of new jobs created in 2006 (44,000), employment growth should remain sustained: about 38,000 units should be created every year during the period 2007-2012. Between 2006 and 2012, manufacturing industrial employment should fall by 41,000 units but the number of jobs created in market services should exceed 256,000. As the number of newly created jobs is growing faster than the labour force, the unemployment rate (broad administrative statistics) should fall from 13.9% in 2006 to 12.0% in 2012.
Under the assumption of constant policy, public accounts are expected to present a net public financing surplus in 2007 (+0.1% of GDP) and to deteriorate in 2008 (-0.5% of GDP). During the following years, the net public financing requirement should gradually decline and the equilibrium should be restored at the end of the projection period, mainly thanks to a decrease in interest charges on the public debt. Consequently, the total public debt to GDP ratio is expected to decline from 87.5% in 2006 to 69.5% in 2012.
STU 2-07 was finalised on 18 May 2007.
In the course of 2006, quarterly economic growth in Belgium slowed down in line with the international business cycle from 0.9% in the first quarter to 0.6% in the last quarter. This year, qoq GDP growth should stabilise around 0.5%. On a yearly basis, economic growth should slow down from 3% in 2006 to 2.2% in 2007.
In 2006, economic growth was only supported by domestic demand while net exports contributed negatively to it. In 2007, however, both domestic demand and net exports should support GDP growth. Despite the deceleration in quarterly Belgian export growth due to the slowdown of the euro area and the US economy, annual average export growth should rise to 6.5% in 2007 as it benefits from a considerable carry-over from 2006. After several years of decrease, the current account surplus should rise by 0.4% of GDP in 2007, mainly as a result of the decline in oil prices leading to an improvement in the terms of trade. Domestic demand growth should weaken this year, which is essentially due to the evolution of private consumption and public investment. Private consumption growth should be less buoyant than in 2006 as the personal income tax reform then gave its final boost to real disposable income. Public investment rose markedly last year in view of the local elections in October 2006, but should fall by the same extent in 2007.
After a net gain of about 44,000 persons in 2006, employment is expected to record an average annual rise of 45,600 persons this year. As the number of jobs grows faster than the labour force, the broad administrative unemployment rate is expected to decline from 13.9% in 2006 to 13.5% in 2007. The harmonised Eurostat unemployment rate (based on labour force surveys) should fall from 8.3% in 2006 to 7.9% next year.
This year, the increase in the national index of consumer prices (NICP) should amount to 1.8%, just as in 2006. It should be noted that the inflation picture in 2006 was blurred by the introduction of a new NICP-basket. The rise of the private consumption deflator, which is not affected by this factor, should decline from 2.3% in 2006 to 1.8% in 2007, mainly due to the decrease in oil prices.
This year, the Belgian economy should register a GDP growth of 2.7%. In 2007, economic growth should slow down to 2.2%.In line with the international economic situation, Belgian export growth should strengthen to 5.4% this year and decrease to 4.9% in 2007. The current account surplus should hardly change. In 2006 this is due to the sharp increase in oil prices, which leads to a deterioration in the terms of trade, whereas in 2007 imports and exports should increase to the same extent, while the terms of trade stabilise.Domestic demand should grow at a slower pace as business investment growth weakens somewhat after last year’s substantial catching-up. This is partially compensated for by a strengthening of public expenditure and especially by private consumption. Private consumption growth should accelerate to 2.3% in 2006 and 2% in 2007 (from 1.1% in 2005), thanks to the increase in households’ real disposable income and (at least in 2006) a further drop in the household savings ratio. Domestic employment should increase by on average 41,000 units in 2006 and 45,600 units in 2007. As the number of jobs is growing faster than the labour force, the unemployment rate (large administrative definition) is expected to diminish from 14.3% in 2005 to 13.7% in 2007. Nevertheless, the harmonised Eurostat unemployment rate (based on labour force surveys) should still increase from 8.4% in 2005 to 8.6% in 2006, only to drop to 8.3% next year.Headline inflation, as measured by the national index of consumer prices (NICP), should amount to 1.9% in 2006 and 2007 (after 2.8% in 2005). This year, the inflation picture is blurred by the introduction of a new NICP-basket based on the household budget survey of 2004. Measured by the deflator of private consumption, which is not affected by this technical factor, inflation should only drop to 2.4% in 2006 and ease further to 1.9% in 2007. The steady decline in inflation mainly results from the moderate wage cost increase, the appreciation of the euro and the stabilisation of oil prices expected in the course of 2007.
The medium-term outlook for Belgium points towards an average GDP growth rate of 2.2% during the 2006-2011 period, which is slightly higher than potential (2.0%). This pace of growth should follow a slowdown in economic growth in 2005 (1.5%) and a rebound in 2006 (2.4%). Economic growth in Belgium should remain slightly higher than in the euro area, on average.
Despite moderate wage increases, the average yearly growth rate for private consumption should reach 1.8% during the 2006-2011 period, in particular because of the increase in household disposable income (stimulated especially by reductions in personal income tax and increases in employment and social benefits). Investment growth should reach 2.5% during the 2006-2011 period, mainly reflecting the path of business investment growth, but also an acceleration in public investment at the end of the projection period. Growth in exports should be 5.4% on average and the contribution of net exports to GDP growth is expected to be 0.3%-points. The external surplus, which was strongly reduced between 2002 and 2005, should increase again after 2007 and attain 3.2% of GDP in 2011 (partly as a result of the improvement of the terms of trade). Limited increases in wage costs, the decline in oil prices after 2007 and a negative output gap until the end of the projection period, should allow the inflation rate to remain below 2% in the medium term.
The expected evolution of employment reflects a favourable macroeconomic context, a limited increase in wage costs and various policy measures. After the net creation of approximately 39,000 and 41,000 jobs in 2005 and 2006 respectively, about 35,000 jobs should be created every year during the 2007-2011 period. Between 2005 and 2011, industrial employment should fall by 30,000 persons, but the number of jobs created in market services should exceed 250,000. Nevertheless, in view of the strong increase in the labour force (mainly in the 50-64 age class) the fall in unemployment will be limited to 38,000 persons. The unemployment rate (broad administrative statistics) should fall from 14.3% in 2005 to 13.1% in 2011.
Under the assumption of constant policy, public accounts are expected to deteriorate markedly, with a net public financing requirement of 0.3% of GDP appearing in 2006, widening to 1.2% in 2007, before gradually falling to 0.3% by the end of the projection period. Nevertheless, the total public debt to GDP ratio is still expected to decline from 93.9% in 2005 to 78.0% in 2011.
HEADLINES BELGIAN ECONOMY - OCTOBER 2005
Due to a deceleration in the worldwide business cycle, Belgian economic growth weakened from the fourth quarter of 2004 onwards. Although the high level of oil prices remains an important factor of uncertainty, economic activity should gain momentum during the second half of this year. As a result, GDP growth should fall from 2.6% last year to 1.4% in 2005 and to 2.2% in 2006.This year, net exports as well as domestic demand should contribute less to economic growth than in 2004. While Belgian exports suffer from the slowdown in European economic growth, domestic demand is hampered by the poor performance of private and public consumption that is only partially compensated for by an acceleration in investment growth.Economic growth in 2006 will mainly depend on domestic demand. Private consumption growth should increase as disposable income is boosted by the personal income tax reform and investment growth should remain strong. Combined with robust export growth, this implies an acceleration of imports, resulting in a zero contribution of net exports to economic growth.After a net gain of 23,600 persons last year, employment is expected to record an average annual rise of 28,800 and 30,300 persons in 2005 and 2006 respectively. The unemployment rate should remain stable this year and next year.The rise in oil prices has pushed up underlying inflation since the beginning of this year. Together with price increases in oil-related products, this should raise headline inflation from 2.1% in 2004 to 3% in 2005 and 2.9% in 2006.
The medium-term outlook for Belgium (cut-off date: April 30) points towards an average GDP growth rate of 2.2% during the 2005-2010 period, which is slightly higher than potential (2.1%). This pace of growth is expected to take place after a slowdown in economic growth in 2005 (1.7%) and a rebound in 2006 (2.6%). In both years Belgian economic growth should be slightly higher than in the euro area. Recent information makes the 2005 growth figure highly uncertain, with a significant downward risk.
Despite moderate wage increases, the average yearly growth rate of private consumption should reach 1.9% during the 2005-2010 period, particularly thanks to the increase in households’ disposable income (stimulated particularly by reductions in personal income tax and the rise in employment). Investment growth should reach 3% on average during the 2005-2010 period, mainly reflecting the increase in business investment but also an acceleration of public investment in 2005 and 2006. Growth in exports should be 5.5% on average and the contribution of net exports to GDP growth is expected to be 0.2%. Limited wage cost increases, lower oil prices as compared to the average level in 2005 and a negative output gap should allow inflation to remain around 1.8% in the medium term.
The development of employment should reflect the favourable macroeconomic context, the limited increases in wage costs and various policy measures. After the net creation of approximately 29,000 and 21,000 jobs in 2004 and 2005 respectively, about 40,000 jobs should be created every year during the 2006-2010 period. Between 2004 and 2010 industrial employment should fall by 51,000 persons and the number of jobs created in market services should exceed 270,000. Nevertheless, in view of the growth in the labour force (mainly in the 50-64 age group) the fall in unemployment will be limited to 50,000. The unemployment rate (broad administrative statistics) is still increasing in 2005 (from 14.4% to 14.6%), but it will subsequently fall to 12.9% in 2010.
Under the assumption of unchanged policy, the public accounts are expected to show a clear deterioration, with a net public sector borrowing requirement appearing in 2005 (0.5% of GDP) and widening to 1.5% of GDP in 2006 before gradually declining to 0.7% of GDP by the end of the projection period. Nevertheless, the total public debt to GDP ratio is still in decline, from 95.8% in 2004 to 82.6% in 2010.
In 2004, economic growth in Belgium amounted to 2.7% (GDP at constant prices), which is higher than the euro area average due to the strength of Belgian domestic demand. The economic recovery, triggered by an improvement in the international business climate from mid-2003 onwards, resulted in quarter-on-quarter growth rates between 0.7% and 0.8%, but weakened to 0.4% in the last quarter of 2004.
Economic growth should gain momentum during the course of this year, which is mainly due to the quarterly profile of exports. In fact, export growth should temporarily weaken during the first half of this year due to lower foreign demand growth and the appreciation of the euro during the last two quarters of 2004, which hampers competitiveness with respect to the other currency areas. Private con-sumption (+1.8%) should increase at a faster pace than purchasing power (+1.4%) for the third con-secutive year. Stimulated by the ongoing recovery of business profitability, low interest rates and gradually improving demand prospects, real business investment growth should strengthen to 3.3% this year. All in all, GDP growth at constant prices should reach 2.2% in 2005. Inflation should re-main rather stable at 2.0%.
Employment should increase by 34,400 units this year, as compared to 28,600 in 2004. As the labour force should increase at about the same pace in 2005, the unemployment rate should stabilise this year. The employment rate should rise slightly from 61.8% in 2004 to 62.1% in 2005.
Het doel van deze nota is geactualiseerde vooruitzichten voor de broeikasgasemissies te geven voor België tot 2010 met behulp van het macrosectoraal model hermes.
Le modèle HERMES II qui avait fait l’objet d’une présentation approfondie dans le Working Paper 5-00 de juillet 2000, comporte une subdivision sectorielle répartissant l’activité économique entre 13 branches d’activité (dont 3 branches pour l’industrie manufacturière, 1 branche transports et communications et 4 branches pour les services marchands).
Cette étude a pour objet de présenter les principaux effets, pour l’économie belge, de majorations des taxes sur l’énergie. Cette analyse en variantes est destinée à répondre à une demande du Conseil des ministres du 14 juin 2002 (dossier introduit par le ministre de la Mobilité et des Transports et le secrétaire d’Etat à l’Energie). Selon cette demande, quatre groupes de scénarios doivent être simulés.
Deze studie geeft een overzicht van de voornaamste effecten van verhoogde energieheffingen voor de Belgische economie. Deze variantanalyse is bedoeld als antwoord op een vraag van de Ministerraad van 14 juni 2002 (dossier ingediend door de Minister van Mobiliteit en Vervoer en de Staatssecretaris voor Energie). Op basis van die vraag worden 4 groepen scenario’s gesimuleerd.
Cette note répond à une demande du ministre de l’ économie. Elle vise à fournir une estimation des effets de la faillite de la Sabena sa sur l’activité économique belge.
Pour rappel, la faillite de la Sabena sa est intervenue le 7 novembre 2001. La Sabena sa comptait à l’époque 7800 personnes et faisait partie avec Sabena Technics, dat, Sobelair et quelques autres filiales, du groupe Sabena qui au total, comptait plus de 12000 personnes. Après la faillite, s’est constitué un consortium d’investisseurs privés et publics chargé de récolter des fonds en vue de relancer une activité aérienne à partir de la dat.
Deze working paper beantwoordt een vraag van de Minister van Economie en maakt een raming van de effecten van het faillissement van Sabena n.v. op de Belgische economische activiteit.
Ter herinnering, Sabena n.v. ging failliet op 7 november 2001. Sabena n.v. had toen 7800 mensen in dienst en maakte, samen met Sabena Technics, dat, Sobelair en enkele andere filialen deel uit van de groep-Sabena die in totaal meer dan 12000 mensen tewerkstelde. Na het faillissement ontstond een consortium van privé- en overheidsinvesteerders dat fondsen zou inzamelen voor een nieuwe luchtvaartactiviteit op basis van dat.
This working paper brings together three analyses that were carried out by the Federal Planning Bureau at the request of the Secretary of State for Energy and Sustainable Development and the Minister for Consumer Affairs, Public Health and the Environment. It looks at the harmonisation (increase) in energy levies up to the average level in our neighbouring countries and the introduction of a co2 levy. In the case of the co2 levy we analyse both the situation whereby all energy products are taxed and the case where the levy is only applicable to road transport. All policy variants are intended to reduce co2 emissions in Belgium within the context of the Kyoto Protocol. The analyses presented in this working paper were finalized in September 2001.
L’étude porte sur les effets macroéconomiques et budgétaires d’opérations de re- déploiement de la pression fiscale et parafiscale consistant en l’instauration d’une cotisation sociale généralisée ( CSG ), qui viendrait remplacer différents prélève- ments fiscaux ou parafiscaux existant actuellement. La pression fiscale de la CSG sur l’ensemble des revenus professionnels, immobiliers et de remplacement se- rait équivalente à celle des prélèvements supprimés; cependant dans la mesure où la CSG serait assise sur une assiette plus large, elle génère un produit net pour les finances publiques. Différentes modalités d’affectation de ce produit sont exa- minées du point de vue des effets macroéconomiques et budgétaires: allègement du déficit des administrations publiques, élargissement de la tranche exonérée de la CSG , baisse des cotisations patronales de sécurité sociale et diminution du taux normal de TVA. La deuxième section du présent rapport présente de façon détaillée les modalités d’introduction de la CSG , les prélèvements supprimés et les diverses affectations du produit net qui sont retenues. La troisième section présente les effets macroéconomiques et budgétaires de la CSG , dans différentes hypothèses d’affectation envisagées
Federal Planning Bureau
