Financial developments for social protection

These financial developments in social protection are always situated in an overall public finance framework (see Public Finances).

Methods and tools

The outlook is always made on a no-policy-change basis, while taking into account measures that have been decided and described in sufficient detail. Variants on certain parameters and impact analyses of certain measures are also regularly carried out.

• The POP model (see Demographic projections).
• Social protection modules within the MODTRIM, HERMES and HERMREG models (see Macroeconomic forecasts and analyses).
• PROMES microsimulation model for the projection of medium-term health care expenditure.
• Long-term macro-fiscal model MALTESE which includes many peripheral models, notably for the projection of the number of pensioners (HORBLOK) and pension expenditure. Indeed, pension models are subject to specific calculation rules depending on the scheme: PENSION for the employees' scheme, MOSES for the self-employed scheme and PUBLIC for the civil servants' pensions.
  For the medium term, the MALTESE model projection is aligned with that of the HERMES model. The long-term outlook is based on socio-economic, macroeconomic and social policy scenarios.