JEL-classificatie

NIME Outlook for the World Economy 2012-2020 [06/08/2012]

De nieuwe vooruitzichten voor de wereldeconomie van het Federaal Planbureau tonen projectieresultaten voor de belangrijkste economische gebieden over de periode 2012-2020. De projectie steunt op een stabiel institutioneel kader binnen de Europese Unie en op het uitblijven van dermate strenge consolidatiemaatregelen dat ze de bbp-groei blijvend zouden beïnvloeden. In een dergelijk kader geeft de projectie voor de eurozone aan dat een matige groei van de finale binnenlandse vraag en een positieve netto-uitvoer een gematigde bbp-groei zouden teweegbrengen over de periode 2012-2020. De economie zou sneller groeien dan de potentiële productie, waardoor de output gap van de eurozone tegen 2017 zou zijn weggewerkt. Het verdwijnen van de output gap zou gepaard gaan met een terugval van de werkloosheidsgraad tot zijn pre-crisisniveau. Tegelijkertijd zouden de particuliere consumptieprijzen sneller stijgen en tegen 2020 een niveau bereiken dat verenigbaar is met de inflatiedoelstelling van de Europese Centrale Bank. De budgettaire consolidatiemaatregelen die in deze projectie gesimuleerd worden, zouden leiden tot primaire overschotten die een verlaging van de publieke schuldgraad in procent van het bbp mogelijk maken.

Comparaison des composantes de la croissance de la productivité : Belgique, Allemagne, France et Pays-Bas 1996-2007 [21/10/2010]

The NIME Outlook for the World Economy : Medium-Term Prospects for the World Economy - Period 2010-2018  [24/08/2010]

At the time of writing, and although certain segments of financial markets do not yet seem to have returned to their normal, pre‐global financial crisis, functioning, it appears that the wide‐spread and massive policy initiatives of the past year have managed to avert any systemic financial meltdown and limit the depth of the world‐wide recession. Indeed, monetary policy, financial policy, the fiscal stimulus plans that began to be implemented in 2009 and the simultaneous boost from countries’ automatic fiscal stabilisers, all managed to limit the scale of the downturn in real GDP and employment levels. The downturn is also thought to have been limited in OECD countries due to the unexpected resilience of GDP growth in emerging market economies such as China, Brazil and India, who helped to prop up OECD activity by helping to contain the decline in world trade.

In early 2010, policy has remained supportive on all fronts, fiscal, monetary and financial. However, with respect to fiscal policy in particular, after the massive public interventions of 2009, the time has come to look at the effects that these initiatives have had, both in terms of their support to the economy, but also in terms of their effects on countries’ budget deficits and debts and the exit strategies. A difficult balance must be struck between the necessary continued public support for the economy as long as output gaps and unemployment rates remain high, and the medium‐run adjustments to public deficit and debt trajectories.

The current scenario is one where governments withdraw public support from the economy gradually without compromising the recovery. Over the medium term, public deficits do not explode. Real GDP growth picks up as the private sector begins to drive the recovery. In the euro area, we see the emergence of structural current account surpluses. In the United States, there is low inflation and a rebalancing of the current account deficit. In Japan, unfavourable demographic trends lead to low GDP growth; furthermore, the country is projected to continue down a path of deflation throughout the projection period.

The NIME Outlook for the World Economy 2007-2013 [10/09/2007]

This August 2007 issue of the NIME Outlook for the World Economy presents a 2007-2013 macroeconomic projection for the major areas of the world. The outlook was produced using NIME, the Belgian Federal Planning Bureau’s macroeconometric world model. This issue includes a number of essential stochastic results relative to our new outlook, as well as an assessment of other less easily quantifiable risks that are currently seen to weigh on the outlook. The major technical assumptions behind the outlook and a brief description of the NIME model are presented in the appendix.

De macro-economische impact van ICT : economische trendgroei,conjunctuurcyclus en NAIRU [03/03/2003]