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Dans un souci de transparence et d’information, le BFP publie régulièrement les méthodes et résultats de ses travaux. Les publications sont organisées en séries, entre autres, les perspectives, les working papers et planning papers. Certains rapports peuvent également être consultés ici, de même que les bulletins du Short Term Update publiés jusqu’en 2015. Une recherche par thématique, type de publication, auteur et année vous est proposée.
In October, the FPB updated its medium-term outlook for Belgium until 2007. This projection is pointing towards a GDP growth of 2.5% on average from 2003 to 2007. This development can be largely accounted for by domestic demand, whereas the role of (net) exports is expected to be more limited. Private consumption should be more dynamic during the forecasting period than during the nineties thanks to a favourable development in households’ disposable income (stimulated especially by reductions in personal income tax). The growth in gross fixed capital formation should attain an average of 2.9% during the period 2003-2007, notably reflecting the expansion in business investment. Export growth should be 5.1% on average: the structural loss in export market share should be confirmed and the contribution of net exports to GDP growth is expected to decline.
The inflation rate should be below 2% in the medium term. Assuming no shocks on commodity prices, the main domestic factors behind this moderate inflation are wage increases compatible with productivity gains, cuts in social security contributions and the extension of production capacity.
Employment should show a gradual improvement: an increase of 33,000 jobs on average should be observed during the 2003-2007 period (as compared with an increase of 40,000 jobs, on average, during the 1996-2000 period). However, a large proportion of the labour expansion should be absorbed by an increase in the labour force. Therefore, the unemployment rate in a broad sense should only decrease from 13.5% by mid-2002 to 13.2% in 2007.
Assuming no policy change but taking into account (as far as possible) the measures decided within the framework of the 2003 budget, the financing capacity of public administrations should be close to balance between 2003 and 2006 and a small surplus would be observed in 2007. Taking into account the computed output gap and the resulting cyclical budget component, the structural (cyclically adjusted) balance would be positive but slightly declining from 2002 onwards.
The objective of a positive financing capacity (0.5% of GDP in 2005 as mentioned in the new Stability Program for Belgium) is not expected to be reached without additional budgetary measures. However, the total public debt to GDP ratio should continue its decline, but at a slower pace if compared with the 2001 forecast. The decrease should represent about 21% of GDP between 2001 and 2007.
Séries clôturées - Short Term Update 04-02 (en),
Autres publications - IBFP 2002-01 (fr),
Autres publications - AIECE General Report (en),
We are grateful to our colleagues at the Federal Planning Bureau and to staff at the National Accounts Division of the National Bank of Belgium for their comments and suggestions. We also like to thank Marleen Keytsman for her help in preparing the document. All remaining errors are ours.
In this paper, a methodology is proposed for the construction of ICT investment and capital stocks in Belgium. The series are obtained in nominal and in real terms and at macroeconomic as well as sector level. The ICT assets distinguished are IT equipment and communications equipment, leaving software out of the analysis. After calculation of investment expenditure on both assets, the expenditure is transformed into quality-adjusted volume terms by means of harmonised price indices derived from appropriate U.S. indices. Productive capital stocks are calculated by means of the perpetual inventory method, and rental prices of the ICT capital services are obtained as well.
Working Papers - Working Paper 12-02 (en),
In this paper, we investigate with a macroeconometric world model how mone-tary policy rules affect economic activity in the euro area. In the economic literature, there is a general consensus that a credible monetary policy rule is to be preferred to discretionary interventions by central banks because monetary surprises can increase expected inflation and worsen economic performance (Kydland and Prescott (1977)). Several monetary policy rules have been proposed, for example, money targeting (Friedman (1956)), inflation targeting (Bernanke et al. (1999)), nominal income targeting (Hall and Mankiw (1994), Frankel and Chinn (1995)), and an interest rate rule that targets inflation and output relative to a reference value (Taylor (1993)). Although the theoretical merits of these rules have been thoroughly discussed in the literature, the empirical investigation of the implications of these rules has only recently commenced (Bryant et al. (1993)).
Working Papers - Working Paper 11-02 (en),
This brief overview will consider e-gov achievements and plans at each policy level, together with the specific organizational and management systems that are being constructed for the purpose of implementing them. E-gov can be considered as a very large object to study. The aim of this paper is not to be exhaustive but to give an overview of the most significant initiatives in the area.
In Belgium e-gov is not an end in itself but is considered as a tool of the so-called “Copernicus Plan” (www.copernicus.be) to modernize the public service in order to achieve better service delivery to citizens, better functioning of the civil services and a simplification of administrative burdens.
Working Papers - Working Paper 10-02 (en),
Le working paper présenté ici constitue la première partie d’une recherche financée par les SSTC ayant trait à l’impact des technologies de l’information et de la communication (TIC) sur l’agglomération géographique des activités économiques dans les villes en Belgique. L’étude comporte trois volets successifs: le premier dresse un état des lieux de l’agglomération géographique des activités économiques et des ménages, ainsi que de leur évolution récente. Le deuxième volet a trait à une analyse théorique et économétrique des déterminants de l’agglomération, faisant référence aux courants de l’économie urbaine et de la nouvelle économie géographique. Le dernier volet se penche sur les déterminants de la localisation des firmes relatives au secteur TIC.
Working Papers - Working Paper 09-02 (fr),
The world economy recovers slowly after a net decline in 2001. Both ‘soft’ (e.g. confidence indicators) and ‘hard’ indicators (e.g. industrial production and world trade) reached a turning point by the end of last year. In a first wave, the magnitude of the upswing, mainly in the US, was a surprise. More recently, however, several confidence indicators started to decline again.
In this context, Belgian real GDP should grow by only 0.7 % in 2002, somewhat below last year’s figure of 1 %. Two consecutive years of weak economic growth should lead to a fall in domestic employment (-0.2 % in 2002), the first decline since 1994.
The global recovery scenario for 2003 remains in place, despite the current hitch in the international business climate. In Belgium, the cyclical recovery is already clearly visible in exports and most recent indicators are pointing to a positive reversal in private consumption in the course of this year. The consequences of last year’s downturn for investor confidence and employment however have not yet been overcome, but this should change as the correction of overinvestment seems to be gradually coming to an end and entrepreneurs should begin to increase their staff by the end of this year, reacting with a certain time lag to the recovery of economic activity. As a result, Belgian real GDP should grow by 2.6 % next year. The underlying scenario of a sustained recovery in the world economy during the coming quarters is however surrounded by a number of risks, as is reflected in the current volatility of stock markets.
Séries clôturées - Short Term Update 03-02 (en),
The macroeconomic results presented here - as summarised in Table 2 - are based on ICT investment expenditure data that are compatible with the data of the 1995 input-output. As the level of the revised ICT investment expenditure is larger than the ICT investment expenditure used in WP 7-02, the results of the growth accounting exercise point to a somewhat larger contribution of ICT Capital accumulation to growth.
Working Papers - Working Paper 08-02 (en),
Prévisions & perspectives - Economic Forecasts 2003 (fr), (fr), (nl), (nl),
In this paper, the impact of ICT on economic and productivity growth is investigated in the context of the Belgian economy. The analysis is conducted at aggregate and branch level. The impact of ICT on economic growth through productivity gains can be transmitted via three different channels, namely increase in the ICT capital available per worker (capital deepening), technical progress in the ICT producer sectors (TFP growth) and finally, technical progress in the ICT user sectors through spillover effects (TFP growth).
Working Papers - Working Paper 07-02 (en),
The medium-term outlook for Belgium points towards an average GDP growth rate of 2.2% during the 2006-2011 period, which is slightly higher than potential (2.0%). This pace of growth should follow a slowdown in economic growth in 2005 (1.5%) and a rebound in 2006 (2.4%). Economic growth in Belgium should remain slightly higher than in the euro area, on average.
Despite moderate wage increases, the average yearly growth rate for private consumption should reach 1.8% during the 2006-2011 period, in particular because of the increase in household disposable income (stimulated especially by reductions in personal income tax and increases in employment and social benefits). Investment growth should reach 2.5% during the 2006-2011 period, mainly reflecting the path of business investment growth, but also an acceleration in public investment at the end of the projection period. Growth in exports should be 5.4% on average and the contribution of net exports to GDP growth is expected to be 0.3%-points. The external surplus, which was strongly reduced between 2002 and 2005, should increase again after 2007 and attain 3.2% of GDP in 2011 (partly as a result of the improvement of the terms of trade). Limited increases in wage costs, the decline in oil prices after 2007 and a negative output gap until the end of the projection period, should allow the inflation rate to remain below 2% in the medium term.
The expected evolution of employment reflects a favourable macroeconomic context, a limited increase in wage costs and various policy measures. After the net creation of approximately 39,000 and 41,000 jobs in 2005 and 2006 respectively, about 35,000 jobs should be created every year during the 2007-2011 period. Between 2005 and 2011, industrial employment should fall by 30,000 persons, but the number of jobs created in market services should exceed 250,000. Nevertheless, in view of the strong increase in the labour force (mainly in the 50-64 age class) the fall in unemployment will be limited to 38,000 persons. The unemployment rate (broad administrative statistics) should fall from 14.3% in 2005 to 13.1% in 2011.
Under the assumption of constant policy, public accounts are expected to deteriorate markedly, with a net public financing requirement of 0.3% of GDP appearing in 2006, widening to 1.2% in 2007, before gradually falling to 0.3% by the end of the projection period. Nevertheless, the total public debt to GDP ratio is still expected to decline from 93.9% in 2005 to 78.0% in 2011.
Working Papers - Working Paper 06-02 (en),
Autres publications - Euren Spring Report (en),
During recent months it has become clear that the turning point in the business cycle has been passed both in the US and in the euro area. Attention has shifted since then to the question of how strong the recovery will be and what will be the forces driving it. A substantial improvement in the labour market situation is now the missing link to ensure a seamless transition from a more technical inventories-led upturn to a broader demand-led recovery and to avoid the risk of a double dip scenario, both in the US and in the euro area. As the labour market situation reacts to economic activity with a certain time lag, it is crucial that the business cycle upturn should remain sufficiently strong to persuade entrepreneurs to increase their staff.
According to the FPB’s leading indicator, the Belgian GDP cycle should only begin to climb in the second half of 2002. As a result, GDP should record an average annual increase this year which is almost identical to last year, i.e. 1.0%. Its composition and dynamics should, however, be quite different. The economic upturn should only have a positive impact on employment by the end of the year. The full positive impact of the economic recovery will become visible in 2003, with an expected GDP growth rate of 3.0%. In April 2002, national consumer price inflation fell below 2% (yoy) and it should stay below that level on average in 2002 and 2003.
Séries clôturées - Short Term Update 02-02 (en),
Prévisions & perspectives - Economic outlook 2002-2007 (fr), (nl),
Autres publications - Report 01-02 (fr), (nl),
In this paper, we investigate how automatic fiscal stabilisers affect economic activity in the euro area. For this purpose we apply several shocks to the NIME-model, and we compare the adjustment path of the main macroeconomic variables under a regime that allows the automatic fiscal stabilisers to operate fully, with the results for a regime that tempers the working of the automatic fiscal stabilisers. We also compare the results for the euro area with results for the United States and Japan.
In the second section of this paper, we briefly describe the NIME model. In the third section, we present simulation results for various shocks under two different fiscal regimes.
Working Papers - Working Paper 05-02 (en),
Autres publications - IT 01-2002 (fr), (nl),
Working Papers - Working Paper 04-02 (nl),
Ce planning paper constitue une synthèse des travaux effectués en matière de comptabilité nationale environnementale au Bureau fédéral du Plan. Il a pu être rédigé grâce au co-financement des Services fédéraux des affaires scientifiques, techniques et culturelles dans le cadre de son Plan d’appui scientifique à une politique de développement durable.
Séries clôturées - Planning Paper 90 (fr), (nl),
La question de la soutenabilité financière à long terme des régimes légaux de pension fait irruption dans le débat socio-politique belge à la fin des années quatre-vingt. Les différentes politiques touchant aux pensions mises en oeuvre durant les périodes précédentes indiquent que cette préoccupation était auparavant soit absente, soit subordonnée à des impératifs de court-moyen terme perçus comme prioritaires.
Séries clôturées - Planning Paper 91 (fr), (nl),
Prévisions & perspectives - Economic Forecasts 2002 C (fr), (nl),
Cette note répond à une demande du ministre de l’ économie. Elle vise à fournir une estimation des effets de la faillite de la Sabena sa sur l’activité économique belge.
Pour rappel, la faillite de la Sabena sa est intervenue le 7 novembre 2001. La Sabena sa comptait à l’époque 7800 personnes et faisait partie avec Sabena Technics, dat, Sobelair et quelques autres filiales, du groupe Sabena qui au total, comptait plus de 12000 personnes. Après la faillite, s’est constitué un consortium d’investisseurs privés et publics chargé de récolter des fonds en vue de relancer une activité aérienne à partir de la dat.
Working Papers - Working Paper 03-02 (fr), (nl),
After an exceptional year in 2000, world trade growth deteriorated sharply in 2001. The collapse of world trade can be explained by the synchronized slackening of the three main economic powers (United States, Japan, and the European Union). The attacks of 11 September and their economic and political impact have, of course, amplified the downturn. The end of destocking and the hesitant recovery, which, according to certain indicators, may be starting in the United States during the first semester of this year, should allow world trade to regain positive growth rates, although a stronger recovery should not be expected before the second half of 2002.
The Belgian economy was severely affected by the slowdown in world trade. On annual average, GDP should have grown by about 1.0% in 2001. In 2002 GDP should record an almost identical average annual increase, i.e. 0.9%. The composition and dynamics should, however, be quite different. After a first quarter marked by the impact of the bankruptcy of SABENA, real GDP should grow at positive qoq rates in a range between 0.5 and 1%. The economic upturn should only have a positive impact on employment by the end of the year. This year, consumer price inflation should fall below 2%. It seems that lower imported inflation is finally beginning to be passed on to the underlying inflation.
Our forecast is counting on a gradual recovery in world trade, which should regain its full dynamics by the end of the year. We assume that the positive impact on economic recovery will mainly be observed in 2003. A strong recovery earlier this year would of course have a positive impact on growth in Europe and in Belgium as long as it does not give rise to an increase in oil prices.
Séries clôturées - Short Term Update 01-02 (en),
This working paper brings together three analyses that were carried out by the Federal Planning Bureau at the request of the Secretary of State for Energy and Sustainable Development and the Minister for Consumer Affairs, Public Health and the Environment. It looks at the harmonisation (increase) in energy levies up to the average level in our neighbouring countries and the introduction of a co2 levy. In the case of the co2 levy we analyse both the situation whereby all energy products are taxed and the case where the levy is only applicable to road transport. All policy variants are intended to reduce co2 emissions in Belgium within the context of the Kyoto Protocol. The analyses presented in this working paper were finalized in September 2001.
Working Papers - Working Paper 02-02 (en),
Bureau fédéral du Plan
