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Om de transparantie en informatieverstrekking te bevorderen, publiceert het FPB regelmatig de methoden en resultaten van zijn werkzaamheden. De publicaties verschijnen in verschillende reeksen, zoals de Vooruitzichten, de Working Papers en de Planning Papers. Sommige rapporten kunnen ook hier geraadpleegd worden, evenals de nieuwsbrieven van de Short Term Update die tot 2015 werden gepubliceerd. U kunt op thema, publicatietype, auteur en jaar zoeken.
This paper presents the methodology for the compilation of a time series of supply and use tables for Belgium in current and constant prices for the period 1995-2002. These data have been produced at the Belgian Federal Planning Bureau within the framework of the EUKLEMS project and constitute an input for the project’s productivity database. The compilation of the time series was based on national accounts data and existing supply and use tables. The methodology consisted in splitting several industries and products, adapting existing data to the latest national accounts revisions, estimating missing tables as well as deflating current price supply and use tables.
Working Papers - Working Paper 04-07 (en),
This Working Paper presents the different methodologies currently used to construct a volume index of capital services and analyzes the effects of methodological changes on capital services and total factor productivity estimates for Belgium over the period 1970-2004. The measurement of capital services is realized in two steps. First, productive capital stocks have to be estimated for each type of asset. Two methodologies are generally used: the geometric and the hyperbolic profile. Secondly, these stocks are aggregated, using the user costs of capital (exante or ex-post approach) as weights to derive an overall index. For the economy as a whole and the entire period, under an ex-post approach, the volume indices of capital services estimated with a hyperbolic age-efficiency profile grow at a higher rate than the indices estimated with a geometric profile. This general conclusion is, however, not observed in every sector. Under an ex-ante approach, the different volume indices are quite similar for the whole economy, even if the indices grow generally at a slightly higher rate in the case of a geometric pattern. A higher growth rate of the volume indices generates a higher capital contribution and, consequently, a lower TFP contribution. Over long periods of time, the different TFP estimates are relatively similar. Over shorter periods, the different methodologies generate more significant variations in the TFP contribution.
Working Papers - Working Paper 03-07 (en),
In deze paper wordt een methodologie beschreven om een aantal sociale gegevens (zowel administratieve als enquêtegegevens) te enten op de informatie uit de nationale rekeningen, ten einde een kwalitatief beeld te krijgen van de (ontwikkeling van de) werkgelegenheid. Meer bepaald wordt de binnenlandse werkgelegenheid opgesplitst naar persoonskenmerken (geslacht, leeftijdsklasse en opleidingsniveau) en jobkenmerken (statuut en arbeidsregime). Die opdeling gebeurt op een gedetailleerd bedrijfstakniveau en conform de nationale rekeningen voor de jaren 1999 tot 2005. De hier ontwikkelde methodologie en resultaten vormen een eerste stap in de richting van de creatie van een Social Accounting Matrix (SAM) voor België.
Working Papers - Working Paper 02-07 (nl),
The NIME model is a macroeconometric world model developed by economists at the Belgian Federal Planning Bureau. The model is used to make medium-term projections for the international economy, as well as to study the transmission mechanisms of economic policies and exogenous shocks.
Artikels - The NIME model of the World Economy
The January 2007 issue of the NIME Outlook for the World Economy presents a 2007-2013 macroeconomic projection for the major areas of the world. The outlook was produced using NIME, the Belgian Federal Planning Bureau’s macroeconometric world model. This issue also includes a number of essential stochastic results concerning the new world economic outlook. The major technical assumptions behind the outlook as well as a brief description of the NIME model are presented in the appendix.
Vooruitzichten - NEO 01-07 (en),
Dit document is gebaseerd op twee studies die het Federaal Planbureau in 2006 maakte over de energieproblematiek en de strijd tegen de klimaatverandering die onlosmakelijk met elkaar verbonden zijn. Het document werpt ook een licht op de uitdagingen voor het Belgische energiebeleid tegenover de klimaatuitdaging. Het document bestaat uit drie delen. In het eerste deel wordt meer uitleg gegeven over enkele sleutelfasen bij de onderhandelingen over de doelstellingen om de broeikasgasemissies te verminderen na 2012 en dit in een Europese context. Verder wordt hier het toegepaste analysekader geschetst. Vertrekkend van een Europese doelstelling die, ten opzichte van 1990, een emissiereductie van 30 % beoogt in 2030, werd voor België geëvalueerd wat de impact zou zijn als die doelstelling zou behaald worden. Die evaluatie wordt in het tweede deel beschreven. Drie dimensies van de evaluatie worden aangesneden: de evolutie van het Belgische energiesysteem bij ongewijzigd beleid, de impact van de Europese doelstelling op het energiesysteem en de impact van het klimaatbeleid op de Belgische economie. In het derde deel gaat de aandacht naar de veranderingen in het energiesysteem en in de maatschappij verenigbaar met een duurzame ontwikkeling die zich tegen 2050 zouden kunnen voordoen. Die zouden vorm kunnen krijgen door gerichte inspanningen inzake onderzoek en ontwikkeling en door gedragsveranderingen, om zo tot een vermindering van broeikasgasemissies van 50 à 80 % voor België te komen.
Working Papers - Working Paper 01-07 (fr), (nl),
Andere publicaties - COVIVE 01 (nl),
In 2005, the federal government presented the ‘Generation Pact’, containing a number of measures designed to strengthen the financial sustainability of the Belgian system of social security in the light of demographic ageing. One of these measures, the introduction of a pension bonus, is designed to encourage older workers to postpone retirement. This working paper discusses the effect of this bonus on the financial consequences of retirement simulated for four fictitious older workers, representing various types of workers.
Artikels - Working Paper 11-06
The Lisbon Strategy has been launched by the European Council to promote long-term economic growth under the conditions of sufficient social and environmental protection. It builds on three pillars: the macroeconomic, the microeconomic and the labour market pillar. In this planning paper the microeconomic pillar and its implementation in Belgium is reviewed. The paper consists of four chapters, each covering a specific theme that concerns the microeconomic pillar.
Artikels - Article 2006121801
In the October update of the FPB medium-term outlook for Belgium, GDP growth reaches an average of 2.3% for the 2006-2011 period. This development will be driven by both domestic demand and exports, although the contribution of net exports to economic growth is expected to be limited. The growth of private consumption (1.9% on average) should be in line with the growth of household disposable income in real terms (2% on average). Gross fixed capital formation should grow by 2.7% (on average). The structural loss of export market shares should remain significant, with exports increasing by 5.5% a year on average, compared with a 6.8% growth in our potential export markets.
After climbing to 2.4% in 2006 because of high energy prices, inflation (as measured by the private consumption deflator) should fall below 2% in the medium term, mainly because of limited wage growth, the increase in interest rates and moderate rises in prices of imports (notably owing to the decrease in oil prices). Total employment is expected to increase by about 38,500 jobs a year during the 2006-2011 period, despite new job losses in manufacturing. The factors behind this performance are: a relatively favourable macroeconomic context, limited wage increases, a further small reduction in working time and various measures taken to promote employment. Nevertheless, the fall in the unemployment rate is expected to be limited due to the substantial rise in the labour force. However, at the end of the projection period - when baby-boomers will leave the labour force on a massive scale - the growth of the labour force should lose momentum, allowing the decrease in the unemployment rate to accelerate.
All in all, economic growth should be stronger for the next six years compared to the previous six years, leading to the same average GDP growth rate during the period 2000-2011 as during the period 1990-1999. At the same time, the pace of employment growth should have nearly doubled (yearly 35,000 on average during the same period 2000-2011, against slightly less than 20,000 yearly during the former decade), reflecting a considerable decline in productivity gains.
This medium term outlook does not take into account the measures taken within the framework of the 2007 budget.
STU 4-06 was finalised on 11 December 2006.
Afgesloten reeksen - Short Term Update 04-06 (en),
The object of this article is to present the Belgian action plan on investing in knowledge and innovation and the main measures already taken as explained in the 2006 Belgian progress report to the National Reform Programme (www.be2010.eu). The FPB participates in the preparation of these reports.
Artikels - Article 2006121803
In deze paper wordt onderzocht wat de impact is op de tewerkstellingsduur van de beroepsopleidingen die de overheid organiseert voor werklozen. Er wordt gewerkt met longitudinale micro-data betreffende RVA-uitkeringstrekkers. De paper maakt gebruik van statistische technieken uit de overlevingsanalyse en besteedt veel aandacht aan een zorgvuldige samenstelling van de controlegroep. Meer bepaald wordt gecorrigeerd voor niet-observeerbare heterogeniteit via een inschatting van de zogenaamde intrinsieke kwaliteit van elke persoon op basis van zijn eigen tewerkstellingsverleden. Uit de daaropvolgende statistische analyse blijkt dat beroepsopleidingen een significant positieve invloed uitoefenen op de tewerkstellingsduur.
Working Papers - Working Paper 12-06 (nl),
In de loop van 2005 stelde de federale regering het Generatiepact voor. De invoering van een pensioenbonus is een centrale maatregel uit dat pakket. In deze Working Paper wordt nagegaan wat de mogelijke effecten zijn van die pensioenbonus op het arbeidsaanbod van mannelijke en vrouwelijke arbeiders en bedienden. Dat gebeurt door het effect van de maatre-gel te simuleren in het Micro-Economisch Pensioenmodel MEP. Het invoeren van de pensioen-bonus zal leiden tot een daling van de impliciete kosten van het uitstellen van het pensioen.
Hierbij dienen echter enkele kanttekeningen gemaakt te worden. Ten eerste wordt het effect van die bonus voor een deel wegbelast, en ten tweede lijkt dat effect voor vrouwen sterker te zijn dan voor mannen, en ook sterker voor arbeiders dan bedienden.
Working Papers - Working Paper 11-06 (nl),
Andere publicaties - OPVERG200603 - Advice (mix),
This year, the Belgian economy should register a GDP growth of 2.7%. In 2007, economic growth should slow down to 2.2%.
In line with the international economic situation, Belgian export growth should strengthen to 5.4% this year and decrease to 4.9% in 2007. The current account surplus should hardly change. In 2006 this is due to the sharp increase in oil prices, which leads to a deterioration in the terms of trade, whereas in 2007 imports and exports should increase to the same extent, while the terms of trade stabilise.
Domestic demand should grow at a slower pace as business investment growth weakens somewhat after last year’s substantial catching-up. This is partially compensated for by a strengthening of public expenditure and especially by private consumption. Private consumption growth should accelerate to 2.3% in 2006 and 2% in 2007 (from 1.1% in 2005), thanks to the increase in households’ real disposable income and (at least in 2006) a further drop in the household savings ratio. Domestic employment should increase by on average 41,000 units in 2006 and 45,600 units in 2007. As the number of jobs is growing faster than the labour force, the unemployment rate (large administrative definition) is expected to diminish from 14.3% in 2005 to 13.7% in 2007. Nevertheless, the harmonised Eurostat unemployment rate (based on labour force surveys) should still increase from 8.4% in 2005 to 8.6% in 2006, only to drop to 8.3% next year.
Headline inflation, as measured by the national index of consumer prices (NICP), should amount to 1.9% in 2006 and 2007 (after 2.8% in 2005). This year, the inflation picture is blurred by the introduction of a new NICP-basket based on the household budget survey of 2004. Measured by the deflator of private consumption, which is not affected by this technical factor, inflation should only drop to 2.4% in 2006 and ease further to 1.9% in 2007. The steady decline in inflation mainly results from the moderate wage cost increase, the appreciation of the euro and the stabilisation of oil prices expected in the course of 2007.
Afgesloten reeksen - Short Term Update 03-06 (en),
Vooruitzichten - Economic forecasts 2007 (fr), (nl),
Andere publicaties - OPVERG200602 - Advice (mix),
This paper describes the operating mode of the two existing Belgian fiscal councils - the High Council of Finance and the National Accounts Institute - as well as their role in the budgetary planning process and emphasizes the part taken by the FPB in producing independent macroeconomic forecasts. In the context of the revised Stability and Growth Pact, lessons drawn from the Belgian experience can certainly be useful for other Member States willing to improve their fiscal institutional settings.
Artikels - Working Paper 04-06
This paper presents the results of a micro simulation model designed to make short-term projections of poverty indicators. The unit of observation in the model is the household. In order to project the evolution of household incomes over time, we have specified a model that links the total observed household income to the evolution of a set of macro income indicators that reflect the different ‘micro’ sources of income.
Artikels - Working Paper 05-06
In Belgium, as well as in other European countries, the use of R&D tax incentives has become more popular in recent years. It remains, however, important to evaluate the effectiveness of those new and existing measures.
Artikels - Working Paper 06-06
In this paper, the tools and methods currently used at the FPB are classified in three groups: national models; international models; and other tools and methods. The listed FPB’s instruments are used to produce analyses and projections in a wide range of areas: business cycle analyses and short-term forecasting, macro-sectoral analyses and medium-term outlook, long-term projections and the issue of ageing, intersectoral relationships, international economics, labour market analyses, public finance, demographic analyses, transport economics, energy market analyses, environmental issues and sustainable development. This paper gives only a bird’s-eye view of the most important tools and methods. At the end of each instrument’s description, references to a short-list of technical papers, applications and to FPB contact addresses can be found.
Artikels - Working Paper 07-06
Two Working Papers on the macroeconomic impact of network industry reform have been published. The first is a detailed report in Dutch, the second a summary paper in English. The analysis builds on a simulation by FPB’s macroeconometric model HERMES, and a simulation by IMF’s general equilibrium model GEM. Although both simulations were based on the same exogenous input, they gave significantly different outcomes. This sheds light on the applicability of different modelling approaches to an issue at hand.
Artikels - Working Paper 08-06 / 10-06
This working paper analyses public financing in two countries that have already reached the Barcelona goal (R&D expenditure on GDP at least equal to 3%), Finland and Sweden, and compares it with the situation in Belgium. This comparison covers not only the quantitative aspects but also the organisational dimension of the public support for innovation.
Artikels - Working Paper 09-06
The August 2006 issue of the NIME Outlook for the World Economy presents a 2006-2012 macroeconomic outlook for the major areas of the world. The outlook was produced using nime, the Federal Planning Bureau’s macroeconometric world model. The August 2006 issue also features a stochastic evaluation of the projection’s main results for the euro area, for the group of countries comprising Denmark, Sweden and the United Kingdom, for the US and for Japan.
Artikels - NIME 2006 - AUG
In network industries the market reform that is being pursued by national and supranational authorities should lead to an improvement of efficiency, which spills over into a beneficial macroeconomic impact. This paper presents two alternative simulations of the potential impact in Belgium. These simulations give very different outcomes, but are still complementary. A macroeconometric approach seems to be more realistic in the short and mid term because it has been built up from observed behavioural relationships. A general-equilibrium approach gives rise to drawing some lessons about the conditions that make the impact more pronounced in the long term.
Working Papers - Working Paper 10-06 (en),
Federaal Planbureau
