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Publications
Dans un souci de transparence et d’information, le BFP publie régulièrement les méthodes et résultats de ses travaux. Les publications sont organisées en séries, entre autres, les perspectives, les working papers et planning papers. Certains rapports peuvent également être consultés ici, de même que les bulletins du Short Term Update publiés jusqu’en 2015. Une recherche par thématique, type de publication, auteur et année vous est proposée.
Working Papers - Working Paper 22-03 (nl),
Le phénomène de péri-urbanisation des activités humaines, à savoir leur établissement en périphérie des villes, est un processus tendanciel qui marque la plupart des pays occidentaux, dont la Belgique. Après une phase touchant plus particulièrement les ménages, les activités économiques ont emboîté allègrement le pas de l’extension urbaine. Ainsi, les superficies consacrées aux terrains industriels et commerciaux ont respectivement augmenté de 23 et 24 % au cours de la dernière décennie (1990-2000), soit au même rythme que la progression des surfaces résidentielles.
Working Papers - Working Paper 21-03 (fr),
Un des faits marquants des évolutions économiques de la décennie nonante est la divergence de croissance entre pays industrialisés, divergence qui renverse la tendance à la convergence observée au cours des décennies précédentes. En particulier, les Etats-Unis ont enregistré une période longue de croissance créatrice d’emplois sans pression inflatoire alors que durant la même période, l’économie européenne connaissait une croissance ni aussi longue ni aussi forte. Parmi les explications avancées, l’évolution contrastée des gains de productivité de part et d’autre de l’Atlantique figure souvent en bonne place.
Autres publications - IT 01-2003 (fr), (nl),
In the empirical literature, the missing link between ict investments and increa-ses in firm performance is organisational change. This paper aims to assess the impact of ict at firm-level in Belgium, by means of case studies with 220 firms in four sectors: banking, machinery, printing/publishing and transport. The chosen sectors were ict-intensive in 1995, have enjoyed productivity growth during the 1995-2000 period and were probably ready for reorganisation at the time of the interviews.
Working Papers - Working Paper 08-03 (en),
In the first half of 2002 the world economy seemed to recover from the sharp decline during 2001. This recovery was not, however, confirmed during the second half of the year.
In this muddled international business climate, the recovery of the Belgian economy is postponed until the second half of 2003. In annual average terms, GDP should grow this year by 1.3%. For the first two quarters of this year, positive but very modest GDP growth is assumed. Growth should be higher during the second half of the year, but clearly not as high as seen in previous economic recoveries in 1996 and 1999. Under these circumstances, the employment rate should fall for the second consecutive year, thus scoring 0.6 points lower than its previous peak in 2001. Consumer price inflation should remain rather stable at around 1.4%.
As economic agents are at present spellbound by the growing threat of a war in the Middle East, and the outcome of that conflict situation is hard to predict, the uncertainty margin surrounding the international economic context, is of course extremely high.
Séries clôturées - Short Term Update 01-03 (en),
Working Papers - Working Paper 02-03 (nl),
Network industries are industries whose activity involves conveying people, products or information from one place to the other via some kind of physical network. They include transport networks, information networks and utility networks. Network industries basically consist of three types of activity: upstream activities involving the production of core products such as equipment and means of transport; infrastructure activities involving the construction, maintenance and operation of the physical network; downstream activities involving the delivery of network services to final consumers. Network industries have specific characteristics from an economic point of view. Three of these are particularly notable, the last one also from a social perspective.
Working Papers - Working Paper 01-03 (en),
This overview of the literature dedicated to the new economic geography intends to highlight the main mechanisms, which contribute to explain the spatial concentration of economic activity, in particular the formation of cities and industrial districts. This should provide some guidelines for an empirical analysis of the determinants of the spatial distribution of economic activity in urban areas in Belgium and for suggestions of economic policy instruments capable of influencing location choices.
Working Papers - Working Paper 16-02 (en),
Working Papers - Working Paper 15-02 (nl),
We are grateful to our colleagues at the Federal Planning Bureau and to staff at the National Accounts Division of the National Bank of Belgium for their comments and suggestions. We also like to thank Marleen Keytsman for her help in preparing the document. All remaining errors are ours.
In this paper, a methodology is proposed for the construction of ICT investment and capital stocks in Belgium. The series are obtained in nominal and in real terms and at macroeconomic as well as sector level. The ICT assets distinguished are IT equipment and communications equipment, leaving software out of the analysis. After calculation of investment expenditure on both assets, the expenditure is transformed into quality-adjusted volume terms by means of harmonised price indices derived from appropriate U.S. indices. Productive capital stocks are calculated by means of the perpetual inventory method, and rental prices of the ICT capital services are obtained as well.
Working Papers - Working Paper 12-02 (en),
This brief overview will consider e-gov achievements and plans at each policy level, together with the specific organizational and management systems that are being constructed for the purpose of implementing them. E-gov can be considered as a very large object to study. The aim of this paper is not to be exhaustive but to give an overview of the most significant initiatives in the area.
In Belgium e-gov is not an end in itself but is considered as a tool of the so-called “Copernicus Plan” (www.copernicus.be) to modernize the public service in order to achieve better service delivery to citizens, better functioning of the civil services and a simplification of administrative burdens.
Working Papers - Working Paper 10-02 (en),
Le working paper présenté ici constitue la première partie d’une recherche financée par les SSTC ayant trait à l’impact des technologies de l’information et de la communication (TIC) sur l’agglomération géographique des activités économiques dans les villes en Belgique. L’étude comporte trois volets successifs: le premier dresse un état des lieux de l’agglomération géographique des activités économiques et des ménages, ainsi que de leur évolution récente. Le deuxième volet a trait à une analyse théorique et économétrique des déterminants de l’agglomération, faisant référence aux courants de l’économie urbaine et de la nouvelle économie géographique. Le dernier volet se penche sur les déterminants de la localisation des firmes relatives au secteur TIC.
Working Papers - Working Paper 09-02 (fr),
The macroeconomic results presented here - as summarised in Table 2 - are based on ICT investment expenditure data that are compatible with the data of the 1995 input-output. As the level of the revised ICT investment expenditure is larger than the ICT investment expenditure used in WP 7-02, the results of the growth accounting exercise point to a somewhat larger contribution of ICT Capital accumulation to growth.
Working Papers - Working Paper 08-02 (en),
In this paper, the impact of ICT on economic and productivity growth is investigated in the context of the Belgian economy. The analysis is conducted at aggregate and branch level. The impact of ICT on economic growth through productivity gains can be transmitted via three different channels, namely increase in the ICT capital available per worker (capital deepening), technical progress in the ICT producer sectors (TFP growth) and finally, technical progress in the ICT user sectors through spillover effects (TFP growth).
Working Papers - Working Paper 07-02 (en),
Autres publications - IT 01-2002 (fr), (nl),
A la demande du Conseil des Ministres et en collaboration avec l’Agence pour la simplification administrative, le Bureau fédéral du Plan a estimé le poids des charges administratives tel que déclaré par les entreprises et les indépendants pour l’année 2000. Le coût total des charges administratives reprend l’ensemble des moyens mis en oeuvre par les entreprises et les indépendants pour se conformer aux dispositions administratives en matière de fiscalité, d’environnement et d’emploi. Il convient de souligner que les charges administratives non récurrentes, comme par exemple celles encourues lors du lancement d’une activité économique ou lors d’une action en justice, ne sont pas prises en considération.
Séries clôturées - Planning Paper 92 (fr), (nl),
Information and communication technology (ICT) has become a significant economic activity in most industrialized countries as well as an important engine of innovation and changes in the rest of the economy. It has been recognized as one of the key factors boosting productivity growth and hence business sector competitiveness. Various initiatives have been recently adopted at regional, national and European levels in order to meet quickly the new challenges of ICT use and diffusion in Europe. A growing number of indicators are now available in order to assess the position of each country or region in terms of ICT development and to guide policy decisions in that field. The aim of this report is to provide a clear and succinct view of the relative development of ICT in Belgium by analyzing both the production and the diffusion of ICT in our economy 1 and to highlight the main weaknesses and strengths of the Belgian economy in that area. Even if the sector has been recently characterised by stock markets ups and downs and numerous bankruptcies, production of ICT goods and services has contributed significantly during the nineties to the growth of economic activity and employment in some industrialised countries as for instance in Anglo-saxon and Scandinavian countries. Has Belgian economic activity benefited from the boom in the ICT sector to the same extent as other industrialised countries? What kind of development can be expected in the future? These are the main questions addressed in the part of the report devoted to the analysis of the Belgian ICT production sector.
Working Papers - Working Paper 01-02 (en),
Working Papers - Working Paper 07-01 (en),
Working Papers - Working Paper 06-01 (nl),
During the past one and a half years, the world economy has been hit by a series of shocks, notably the large rise in oil prices, the abrupt slowing of growth in the United States (initiated by the bursting of the speculative bubble in the ICT sector) and the events of 11 September. This resulted in a synchronised slowdown in the three major economic regions (the United States, Japan and the European Union) and a pronounced downturn in world trade.
It is obvious that Belgium, being a ‘small open economy’, cannot escape the prevailing slowdown in the world economy. The forecasts for all components of final demand have therefore been revised downwards for both 2001 and 2002 as compared to our July projections. Under these circumstances GDP would not exceed a growth rate of 1.1% this year and 1.3% in real terms next year. These average annual growth rates are based on slightly negative growth figures (quarter-on-quarter) during the second half of this year, while positive and steadily increasing quarterly growth rates should be recorded in 2002 due to a recovery in exports.
Domestic demand should increase by only 1.1% both this year and next, while average growth over the last five years has amounted to 2.5%. Exports should suffer from slackening world demand in 2001, consequently growing by only 0.8%. In 2002 exports should accelerate and reach an average annual growth of 2.8%, which is much slower than in the second half of the 1990s.
The uncertainties surrounding these forecasts in the present political and economic situation should not be underestimated. The scenario on which the present forecasts are based assumes that the loss of consumer and business confidence will be of short duration, implying that the US economy will recover quickly next year. The consequences of the terrorist attacks of 11 September and the military response to those attacks may, however, have a more prolonged impact on investors’ and consumers’ confidence. As a final remark, it has to be underlined that the economic forecasts published in this STU were finalised before Sabena was declared bankrupt.
Séries clôturées - Short Term Update 04-01 (en),
After a period of rapid expansion during 1999 and the first half of 2000, a clear worldwide slowdown was recorded in the second half of 2000. Current forecasts are assuming that world trade will recover in the second half of 2001. In line with this international scenario (lower growth, higher inflation), economic growth in Belgium has been revised downwards to 2.4% (compared to 2.8% in the economic budget last February). GDP growth next year should reach 2.8%, driven by stronger growth in exports and domestic demand.
In addition to the impact of the recovery of international trade, activity in 2002 should be fuelled by various internal factors boosting private consumption, such as wage and employment increases, the indexation of wages and social benefits above consumer price growth and personal income tax reform.
Domestic employment should rise by around 40,000 persons in 2001 and 45,000 in 2002, leading to a new improvement in the employment rate. Nevertheless, the impact on unemployment will be smaller, given the forecast increase in the labour force.
Inflation should be significantly lower in 2002 than in 2001 (1.5% as against 2.4% for consumer prices), thanks to a small decrease in energy prices, the stabilization of the euro exchange rate and lower prices for food products. The impact on inflation of the conversion of prices into euro is uncertain and any changes, should mainly be seen in 2001.
Séries clôturées - Short Term Update 03-01 (en),
Working Papers - Working Paper 05-01 (fr),
Working Papers - Working Paper 04-01 (nl),
Belgian exports will be hit this year by the deceleration in world economic growth, which was already reflected by the net slowdown in world import demand at the end of last year. Even when taking into account the expected recovery in world trade from the second half of 2001 onwards, growth in Belgian export markets should significantly ease back. Moreover, the appreciation of the euro will reduce the price competitiveness of Belgian exports and would lead to loss of market share. As a result, the positive contribution towards real economic growth from external trade will decline.
Nevertheless, domestic demand should remain robust in 2001. Business investment should benefit from a rise in firms’ profitability due to the gain from the terms of trade (because of lower oil prices and the appreciation of the BEF). Private consumption will be sustained by substantial growth in household’s real disposable income as the expected deceleration in inflation will allow to regain part of the loss of purchasing power in 2000. Furthermore, households’ disposable income will also be supported by some personal tax cuts. Although the deterioration in the business cycle will lower the pace of employment growth, the higher labour-intensiveness, that has been observed during the last three years, will still give rise to a favorable employment outcome.
All in all, Belgian GDP is expected to decelerate from 3.9% in 2000 to 2.8% this year and to be less export-led than last year.
Taking into account the 2001 Budget and the macro-economic outlook presented above, and including the expected revenues from the UMTS licences (0.2% of GDP), the general government budget balance is expected to move from equilibrium in 2000 to a small surplus in 2001 (about 0.7% of GDP).
Séries clôturées - Short Term Update 01-01 (en),
Autres publications - Relocation 2000 - Summary (en), (fr), (nl),
Bureau fédéral du Plan
