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Publications

Dans un souci de transparence et d’information, le BFP publie régulièrement les méthodes et résultats de ses travaux. Les publications sont organisées en séries, entre autres, les perspectives, les working papers et planning papers. Certains rapports peuvent également être consultés ici, de même que les bulletins du Short Term Update publiés jusqu’en 2015. Une recherche par thématique, type de publication, auteur et année vous est proposée.

Documents (205)

2002

  • General and selective reductions in employer social-security contributions in the 2002 vintage of HERMES - A revision of WP 8-01 10/07/2002

    The medium-term outlook for Belgium points towards an average GDP growth rate of 2.2% during the 2006-2011 period, which is slightly higher than potential (2.0%). This pace of growth should follow a slowdown in economic growth in 2005 (1.5%) and a rebound in 2006 (2.4%). Economic growth in Belgium should remain slightly higher than in the euro area, on average.

    Despite moderate wage increases, the average yearly growth rate for private consumption should reach 1.8% during the 2006-2011 period, in particular because of the increase in household disposable income (stimulated especially by reductions in personal income tax and increases in employment and social benefits). Investment growth should reach 2.5% during the 2006-2011 period, mainly reflecting the path of business investment growth, but also an acceleration in public investment at the end of the projection period. Growth in exports should be 5.4% on average and the contribution of net exports to GDP growth is expected to be 0.3%-points. The external surplus, which was strongly reduced between 2002 and 2005, should increase again after 2007 and attain 3.2% of GDP in 2011 (partly as a result of the improvement of the terms of trade). Limited increases in wage costs, the decline in oil prices after 2007 and a negative output gap until the end of the projection period, should allow the inflation rate to remain below 2% in the medium term.

    The expected evolution of employment reflects a favourable macroeconomic context, a limited increase in wage costs and various policy measures. After the net creation of approximately 39,000 and 41,000 jobs in 2005 and 2006 respectively, about 35,000 jobs should be created every year during the 2007-2011 period. Between 2005 and 2011, industrial employment should fall by 30,000 persons, but the number of jobs created in market services should exceed 250,000. Nevertheless, in view of the strong increase in the labour force (mainly in the 50-64 age class) the fall in unemployment will be limited to 38,000 persons. The unemployment rate (broad administrative statistics) should fall from 14.3% in 2005 to 13.1% in 2011.

    Under the assumption of constant policy, public accounts are expected to deteriorate markedly, with a net public financing requirement of 0.3% of GDP appearing in 2006, widening to 1.2% in 2007, before gradually falling to 0.3% by the end of the projection period. Nevertheless, the total public debt to GDP ratio is still expected to decline from 93.9% in 2005 to 78.0% in 2011.

    Working Papers - Working Paper 06-02  Publication(en),

  • Evaluation des effets économiques de la faillite de la Sabena SA 15/03/2002

    Cette note répond à une demande du ministre de l’ économie. Elle vise à fournir une estimation des effets de la faillite de la Sabena sa sur l’activité économique belge.

    Pour rappel, la faillite de la Sabena sa est intervenue le 7 novembre 2001. La Sabena sa comptait à l’époque 7800 personnes et faisait partie avec Sabena Technics, dat, Sobelair et quelques autres filiales, du groupe Sabena qui au total, comptait plus de 12000 personnes. Après la faillite, s’est constitué un consortium d’investisseurs privés et publics chargé de récolter des fonds en vue de relancer une activité aérienne à partir de la dat.

    Working Papers - Working Paper 03-02  Publication(fr), Publicatie(nl),

2001

  • STU 03-01 : Special Topic - Some implications for Belgium of the Eastern EU enlargement 08/08/2001

    After a period of rapid expansion during 1999 and the first half of 2000, a clear worldwide slowdown was recorded in the second half of 2000. Current forecasts are assuming that world trade will recover in the second half of 2001. In line with this international scenario (lower growth, higher inflation), economic growth in Belgium has been revised downwards to 2.4% (compared to 2.8% in the economic budget last February). GDP growth next year should reach 2.8%, driven by stronger growth in exports and domestic demand.

    In addition to the impact of the recovery of international trade, activity in 2002 should be fuelled by various internal factors boosting private consumption, such as wage and employment increases, the indexation of wages and social benefits above consumer price growth and personal income tax reform.

    Domestic employment should rise by around 40,000 persons in 2001 and 45,000 in 2002, leading to a new improvement in the employment rate. Nevertheless, the impact on unemployment will be smaller, given the forecast increase in the labour force.

    Inflation should be significantly lower in 2002 than in 2001 (1.5% as against 2.4% for consumer prices), thanks to a small decrease in energy prices, the stabilization of the euro exchange rate and lower prices for food products. The impact on inflation of the conversion of prices into euro is uncertain and any changes, should mainly be seen in 2001.

    Séries clôturées - Short Term Update 03-01  Publication(en),

  • Salaires conventionnels et effectifs en Belgique : une analyse empirique et macroéconomique des écarts 15/02/2001

    Information and communication technology (ict) has become a significant economic activity in most industrialized countries as well as an important engine of innovation and changes in the rest of the economy. It has been recognized as one of the key factors boosting productivity growth and hence business sector competitiveness. Various initiatives have been recently adopted at regional, national and European levels in order to meet quickly the new challenges of ict use and diffusion in Europe. A growing number of indicators are now available in order to assess the position of each country or region in terms of ict development and to guide policy decisions in that field. The aim of this report is to provide a clear and succinct view of the relative development of ict in Belgium by analyzing both the production and the diffusion of ict in our economy and to highlight the main weaknesses and strengths of the Belgian economy in that area.

    Working Papers - Working Paper 02-01  Publication(fr),

2000

1999

1998

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